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021416wsa Agenda Package021417wsa HC BOC Page 1 --DRAFT-- IMPACT GREATER FAYETTEVILLE Regional Impact Analysis for Reduction of Personnel at Fort Bragg and Recommendations to Mitigate Risk 021417wsa HC BOC Page 2 Project Introduction •Army announced reductions •OEA grant •Scope of work •Community input sessions •Background and previous studies •Economic landscape •Reduction scenarios •IMPLAN modeling •Identified industries with highest potential for growth •Economic and workforce development strategies 021417wsa HC BOC Page 3 Steering Committee •Rodney Anderson,Retired General •Tamara Bryant, Fayetteville Technical Community College •Letitia Edens, Hoke County •TJ Haney, NC Community College System •Chris Hawk, Harnett County •Angie Hedgepeth, Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors •Tracy Jackson, Cumberland County •Mark Locklear, Harnett County •Adrian Lowery, Lumber River Council of Governments •Zan Monroe, Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors •Greg Moore, Fayetteville Technical Community College •Monika Morris, Fayetteville Technical Community College •James Palenick, City of Fayetteville •Brandon Plotnick, Fayetteville Alliance •Don Porter, Hoke County •Robert Rehder, Fayetteville State University •Darsweil Rogers, Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce •Patricia Tyson, City of Fayetteville •Teddy Warner, Economic Development Partnership of NC •Jim Lott, Cumberland Workforce Development Board 021417wsa HC BOC Page 4 SWOT Analysis STRENGTHS •Affordable housing •Work ethic, military spouses •Proximity to Ft. Bragg, metros, RTP brain trust •Cape Fear River-recreation, water resource •Access to I-95, I-295 and highways •Small town attitude •Schools, Community College, Universities •State parks, recreation parks •Public infrastructure –planning department •Diverse population •Airport •Health care system •Diversity of jobs •Cost of living WEAKNESSES •Identity/Vision •Perception of community •Lack of connectivity •Infrastructure •Hotels •Housing options, transient community •Meeting space, convention space •Dependency on military •Attracting young workers •Low tax base proportional to population •Largest employers do not pay taxes, they are exempt (healthcare, university) •Recreation facilities •Out-commuters •No one knows what we have to offer •Airport facilities •Better connected partnerships •Poverty OPPORTUNITIES •Create an identity •Lifestyle amenities •Marketing •Leveraging Ft. Bragg •Become a destination •Land management •Better organized communities to attract youth •Use river and spaces to create communities attract people •Leverage talent •Exiting military, graduating/graduate students •Could have a glut of affordable housing if military left •Agricultural products processing •Small businesses development •Regional strategy •Community College closing skills gap with exiting military •Improve water sewer capacity •Home-based entrepreneur THREATS •Traffic •People against change •Complacency •Workforce flight •Poverty, crime •Overcrowded schools •Lack of connectivity •National attention to HB2 •Pay scale for teachers in neighboring counties •Growth-management •Dependency on Ft. Bragg •Health disparity issues •Infrastructure lines designed to be a rural system •Funding for implementation •Coordination 021417wsa HC BOC Page 5 Economic Landscape -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP Growth Rate US North Carolina Fayetteville MSA Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate (SA) October-16 September-16 October-15 United States 4.90 5.0 5.0 Fifth District 4.6 4.5 5.2 North Carolina 4.9 4.7 5.6 Asheville MSA 4.1 4.1 4.6 Charlotte MSA 4.7 4.7 5.3 Durham MSA 4.3 4.3 5.0 Fayetteville MSA 6.3 6.1 7.3 Greensboro-High Point MSA 5.0 5.1 5.9 Raleigh-Cary MSA 4.2 4.2 4.8 Wilmington MSA 4.8 4.8 5.5 Winston-Salem MSA 4.7 4.7 5.4 Sources: US Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Harnett County Schools 20% 80% Harnett County Schools Military-Connected Students, 2011-12 Military Non-Military $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 $700,000,000 $800,000,000 $900,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Harnett County Fort Bragg Economic Impact (2010-2015) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 6 Harnett County Input/Output Model Results: General Merchandise & Department Stores and Automobile Dealers Illustrative Opportunities Possible Military Contracts for Advanced Textile Materials Growing Military Demand for Advanced, Multi Function Textiles Regional Expertise in Textile Manufacturing and Chemicals Possible Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Agriculture- Focused Drone Operations Growing Interest in Commercial Applications for Drone Technology Growing Regional Expertise in Aerospace Supply Chain, Skilled Ex- Military Workforce Leverage demand for goods and services not met locally. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 7 Troop Reduction Impact High Case Scenario Set Each 100 active duty military jobs in the region support as many as 60 other jobs including civilians at Fort Bragg Each active duty military job supports an average of as much as $90,000 in labor income representing soldier income plus income of soldier’s share of supported jobs 3000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -4,847 ($264,458,573) ($617,522,885) ($12,087,902) Harnett County -6.5 ($169,138) ($244,877) ($23,279) Hoke County -2.5 ($35,895) ($176,356) ($5,167) Total Impact -4,856.0 ($264,663,606) ($618,344,116) ($12,116,348) 2000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County 3,231.90 ($176,305,715) ($411,681,907) ($8,058,259) Harnett County -4.3 ($112,759) ($4,429,918) ($15,512) Hoke County -1.6 ($23,932) ($117,836) ($3,444) Total Economic Impact -3,237.80 ($267,632,801) ($416,229,661) ($8,077,215) 1000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -1,615.00 ($88,152,857) ($98,514,207) ($1,712,323) Harnett County -2.2 ($56,379) ($214,959) ($3,151) Hoke County -0.8 ($11,966) $58,918 ($699) Total Impact -1,618,90 ($88,221,203) ($98,788,084) ($($1,716,173) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 8 Target Sectors •Logistics and Warehousing •Freight forwarding, warehousing, wholesaling, e-commerce, and supply chain planning segments •Defense and Security •Navigation instruments, aerospace, communications equipment, wiring, cybersecurity, and other related areas •Advanced Manufacturing •Transportation, aviation, defense industries, and production technology •Business Services •Data processing, search engines, credit card processing, load administration, portfolio management, insurance claims adjusting, and payroll and bookkeeping services 021417wsa HC BOC Page 9 Workforce Development Strategy •Match dislocated military & civilian workers to other local current or emerging job titles/occupation via transferable skills •Additional skills ‘gap’ training and education (area colleges) •Additional job placement assistance (NCWorks/TAP) •Additional TA for aspiring entrepreneurs & small businesses (SBTDC/SBC/VBOC/MBC) •Align and integrate regional p-20 education and training systems with economic development sector targets for talent pipeline (i.e., Health Career Pathway) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 10 Economic Development Strategy •Increased and connected economic development efforts •Increased connectivity •Invest in education and training •Support entrepreneurship •Replace people •Adaptive reuse 021417wsa HC BOC Page 11 Next Steps Timeline Action February 6 – 14 Local government input February 15 –March 3 Revise draft report March 6 – 13 Steering Committee review March 14 Steering Committee meeting March 15 –March 31 Finalize report April Regional presentation and launch 021417wsa HC BOC Page 12 Creative Economic Development Consulting, LLC PO Box 706, Elkin, NC 28621 • 336-526-1332 • www.creativeedc.com MEMORANDUM To: City of Fayetteville Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties From: Fayetteville State University Creative Economic Development Consulting Date: January 27, 2017 Subj.: Draft Impact Greater Fayetteville Report The City of Fayetteville was awarded a grant from the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment (OEA) to determine the prospective regional impact of troop reductions at Fort Bragg and to develop strategies to drive growth to offset military redu ctions. The attached draft report will be presented to Fayetteville, Cumberland, and Hoke Counties on February 6 and Harnett County on February 14. We encourage you to read the main body of the report, especially the analysis, impact models, and strategies in order to be prepared to offer feedback. The recommendations in this report align education, workforce development, and economic development with target industry sectors. Your feedback on how your community can take advantage of growth sectors, as well as mitigate potential risks from a troop reduction, is important. Following discussions with local government boards, the steering committee and consulting team will finalize the report and schedule a regional presentation. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 13 --DRAFT-- IMPACT GREATER FAYETTEVILLE Regional Impact Analysis for Reduction of Personnel at Fort Bragg and Recommendations to Mitigate Risk April 2017 Sponsor Consulting Team 021417wsa HC BOC Page 14 Impact Greater Fayetteville 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction 5 Steering Committee 7 Community Input Sessions Summary-SWOT Analysis 8 Economic Landscape 13 Troop Reduction Scenarios 30 Potential Economic Impact of Further Troop Reductions 32 Target Sectors 39 Workforce Development Strategy 44 Economic Development Strategy 52 Implementation Plan 63 Appendices A: Steering Committee Members and Consulting Team 64 B: Economic Profile Background Data 65 C: Economic Impact Model Assumptions, Methodology, 93 and Supplementary Results D: Target Sector Analysis: Supporting Analytics and Data 109 E: Target Sector Analysis: Industry Profiles 123 F: Workforce Development Plan 168 021417wsa HC BOC Page 15 Impact Greater Fayetteville 2 Executive Summary The City of Fayetteville was awarded a grant from the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment (OEA) to determine the prospective regional impact of troop reductions at Fort Bragg and to develop strategies to drive growth to offset military redu ctions. The counties included in the scope of the grant are Cumberland, Hoke, and Harnett. The grant was a result of a 2015 Army announcement of a planned reduction of 40,000 active duty U.S. military personnel over the next few years. While specific personnel reductions to be made at Fort Bragg, the largest U.S. Army base by population, have been uncertain, Fort Bragg has already begun to experience reductions in troop strength. The City of Fayetteville contracted with Creative Economic Development Consulting and Fayetteville State University to assess potential impacts associated with a range of prospective troop reduction scenarios. The FSU/Creative EDC team gathered input from regional leaders, analyzed the regional economic landscape, developed alternative personnel reduction scenarios, used Economic Impact Analysis for Planning software (IMPLAN) to determine potential economic impacts, identified industries with highest potential for growth, compared peer cities and similar military installations, and created economic and workforce development strategies to leverage opportunities and mitigate risks associated with troop reductions. The consulting team facilitated community input meetings, one in each county and for the City of Fayetteville, to hear the potential impacts a reduction at the base will have on the community. The communities of Hoke, Harnett, Cumberland, and Fayetteville are very different. However, Fort Bragg and the attendant population not only create unique opportunities and benefits but also create unique challenges and uncertainties. The communities want to see strategies for infrastructure improvements, education and workforce development, small business and entrepreneur development, business recruitment, and transportation improvements. The study team examined economic output data, population size and composition, employment levels, educational attainment of the workforce, income levels, veteran presence in the population and their characteristics, and the housing stock to understand the current economic landscape of the region. The military is clearly the key economic driver for the region, accounting for approximately 31% of the total value of goods and services produced in the Fayetteville Metropolitan Statistical Area, although that figure has been declining at a rate of 2-4% per year in real terms. As a result, the region’s overall economic output has been declining since 2012 while economic activity in the state and the nation has, on average, been rising. Each 100 active duty military jobs in the region support as many as 60 other jobs (including civilians at Fort Bragg); each active duty military job can support an average of as much as $90,000 in labor income—representing soldier income plus income for a soldier’s share of supported jobs. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 16 Impact Greater Fayetteville 3 Aside from the military, the region is highly dependent upon public sector jobs , education, and health care-related jobs. The decline in military impact has led to the regional economy underperforming compared to national averages. Another hurdle for economic growth has been the lack of a highly skilled and educated workforce. The data show that military veterans, educational institutions, and cost of living are some of the region’s greatest assets. Population growth fuels workforce growth and while the population in Harnett and Hoke counties has continued to grow, Cumberland County’s growth has slightly declined. There are two main purposes of this study: 1) quantify the economic impact of potential troop reductions at Fort Bragg; and 2) develop recommendations to offset the negative economic impact. The consulting team developed two sets of scenarios for troop reductions. The scenarios show that a 3,000 troop reduction would result in the loss of between 3,630-5,000 full-time and part-time jobs, $450-$618M in sales, $107-$264M in wages, and $5-$15M in tax revenues. Troop reduction scenarios for 2,000 and 1,000 and the impact on major industries are also presented in this study. To mitigate potential negative economic impacts from a reduction of active duty personnel at Fort Bragg, the consulting team developed a set of recommendations to strengthen regional economic and workforce development efforts. Basic economic development strategies will not significantly change with a reduction of 1,000, 2,000, or even 3,000 active duty personnel at Fort Bragg. The reasons companies move to and expand in this region will remain the same. Therefore, many of the recommendations focus on strengthening the efforts to recruit, retain, grow, and start-up new businesses (military contracting or commercializing of military technology for example) and the talent needed to staff them. We recommend the region increase its business recruitment efforts by collaborating at a higher level and focusing on the target sectors of logistics and warehousing, defense and security, advanced manufacturing, and business services. The region can be more successful in attracting new and expanding companies if it builds on current economic development efforts to create cross-functional, regional collaboration to better meet the needs of targeted industry sectors. Best practice example s show that by working together across county and organizational boundaries to leverage such assets as a skilled and disciplined workforce, education responsive to target growth sector needs, site availability, a reservoir of entrepreneurial talent, and identification of business opportunities in which the target region has unique competitive advantages, the region is likely to increase the level of economic development success achieved. These strategies could also include leveraging Key strategies include regional collaboration across economic development, workforce development, and education to align with target industry sectors. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 17 Impact Greater Fayetteville 4 grants and other funding to work with developers to increase the inventory of available quality buildings and shovel-ready sites. In addition to traditional business development strategies, we recommend a focus on entrepreneurship and small business development to leverage exiting military personnel. The analysis also shows excess demand in specific industries that could support small business development. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 18 Impact Greater Fayetteville 5 Introduction In 2015, the Army announced a planned reduction of 40,000 active duty U.S. military personnel over the next few years—in response to federal budget challenges and reduced U.S. roles in military conflicts around the world. Thousands more civilian jobs working for the Army are projected to be reduced as well. While specific personnel reductions to be made at Fort Bragg have been uncertain, as the largest U.S. Army base by population, Fort Bragg has already begun to experience reductions in troop strength. Recognizing that military installations can have a significant impact on their region’s economy, the U.S. Congress allocated funds to the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment (OEA) to help regions assess and mitigate economic risks associated with reductions in force at local military installations. The City of Fayetteville applied for, and was awarded, a grant from the OEA to determine the prospective regional impact of troop reductions at Fort Bragg and to develop strategies to drive growth to offset military reductions. This aligned closely with the City of Fayetteville’s strategic plan. The counties included in the scope of the grant award include Cumberland, Hoke, and Harnett. While specific future reductions in personnel at Fort Bragg have yet to be determined, the City of Fayetteville contracted with Creative Economic Development Consulting and Fayetteville State University to assess potential impacts associated with a range of prospective troop reduction scenarios—including reductions of 1000, 2000, and 3000 active duty military personnel. With a total active duty force at Fort Bragg of approximately 50,000 and another 9,000 civilians, a reduction of 3,000 from the military payroll would represent an approximate 5% decline from current levels. To assess potential impacts of military personnel reductions and to help develop and prioritize mitigation strategies, the FSU/Creative EDC team used the following methodology: 1. Assembled and convened a Steering Committee consisting of key regional and community leaders to provide guidance and input to the study team on issues addressed and conclusions reached. Steering committee members represented the four jurisdictions covered in this study, economic development, workforce development, real estate industry, military, education, and related agencies. The steering committee provided oversight throughout the study process through regular meetings and electronic communications. (see Appendix A for Steering Committee members) 2. Convened four community input sessions (one in each county and the City of Fayetteville) to gain input on the potential impacts changes in Fort Bragg troop strength could have on the community 3. Reviewed previous background and related studies on regional economic issues and opportunities 4. Compiled and analyzed published statistical data describing the current regional economic landscape 021417wsa HC BOC Page 19 Impact Greater Fayetteville 6 5. Developed alternative personnel reduction scenarios 6. Used the IMPLAN econometric modelling tool to determine potential economic impacts associated with troop reduction scenarios 7. Identified industries with highest potential for growth 8. Developed economic and workforce development strategies to leverage growth opportunities and mitigate risks associated with military personnel changes This study summarizes the research, analysis, and impacts and makes recommendations to offset the potential negative economic impacts such as job losses. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 20 Impact Greater Fayetteville 7 Steering Committee A 2012 report by the Association of Defense Communities notes that one of the most important factors for successfully addressing challenges associated with base realignments is to implement “robust sharing of information, aggressive and early engagement and creation of a strong, focused community voice, active cooperation in workforce development and retraining, and partnership…” Thus, to help guide the assessment of impacts, challenges, and mitigating opportunities associated with potential reductions in personnel and contract dollars, the consulting team worked with the City of Fayetteville to establish a steering committee consisting of key regional and community leaders. Steering committee members represented the four jurisdictions covered in this study, economic development, workforce development, real estate industry, military, education, and related agencies. The consulting team relied on input from the steering committee to guide research and validate results. The steering committee provided oversight throughout the study process through regular meetings and electronic communications. A list of steering committee members and the consulting team is in Appendix A. Steering Committee Meeting Dates: o September 8, 2016 o November 15, 2016 o January 4, 2017 o March 14, 2017 o (Future Dates to be Announced) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 21 Impact Greater Fayetteville 8 Community Input Sessions-SWOT Analysis The consulting team facilitated four community input meetings, one in each county and the City of Fayetteville, to hear the qualitative impacts a reduction at the base will have on the community. The agenda for the meetings included a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) Analysis, qualitative impact of Fort Bragg, workforce and economic development strategies, resources for diversification, and feedback on how this study could support their local work. The consulting team used the reported qualitative impacts of Fort Bragg to influence the data gathered and analyzed. For example, when participants mentioned vacant housing as an impact, we researched the housing market. We used assets and opportunities as building blocks for the economic development strategy. The communities want to see strategies for infrastructure improvements, education and workforce development, small business and entrepreneur development, business recruitment, and transportation improvements. They noted that local, state, and federal along with private resources should be tapped for implementation. The communities of Hoke, Harnett, Cumberland, and Fayetteville are very different. The small town feel of communities in Hoke and Harnett counties is juxtaposed to the amenities of the metropolitan area of Fayetteville. However, Fort Bragg and the attendant population create unique opportunities and benefits and also create unique challenges and uncertainties. We found that Fort Bragg is central to almost everything in Fayetteville, understandab ly, while the counties see beyond the impacts of the base. We used an asset-based approach, built upon a SWOT Analysis, to create the workforce and economic development strategies. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 22 Impact Greater Fayetteville 9 Table 1: Combined SWOT Analysis Summary Source: Community Input Sessions STRENGTHS •Affordable housing •Work ethic, military spouses •Proximity to Ft. Bragg, metros, RTP brain trust •Cape Fear River-recreation, water resource •Access to I-95, I-295 and highways •Small town attitude •Schools, Community College, Universities •State parks, recreation parks •Public infrastructure – planning department •Diverse population •Airport •Health care system •Diversity of jobs •Cost of living WEAKNESSES •Identity/Vision •Perception of community •Lack of connectivity •Infrastructure •Hotels •Housing options, transient community •Meeting space, convention space •Dependency on military •Attracting young workers •Low tax base proportional to population •Largest employers do not pay taxes, they are exempt (healthcare, university) •Recreation facilities •Out-commuters •No one knows what we have to offer •Airport facilities •Better connected partnerships •Poverty OPPORTUNITIES •Create an identity •Lifestyle amenities •Marketing •Leveraging Ft. Bragg •Become a destination •Land management •Better organized communities to attract youth •Use river and spaces to create communities attract people •Leverage talent •Exiting military, graduating/graduate students •Could have a glut of affordable housing if military left •Agricultural products processing •Small businesses development •Regional strategy •Community College closing skills gap with exiting military •Improve water sewer capacity •Home-based entrepreneur THREATS •Traffic •People against change •Complacency •Workforce flight •Poverty, crime •Overcrowded schools •Lack of connectivity •National attention to HB2 •Pay scale for teachers in neighboring counties •Growth-management •Dependency on Ft. Bragg •Health disparity issues •Infrastructure lines designed to be a rural system •Funding for implementation •Coordination 021417wsa HC BOC Page 23 10 SWOT Comments Harnett County Harnett County strengths revolved around mainly traditional economic development assets such as transportation, education, health care, and the military base as well as quality of life assets. It is interesting that the group did not mention Fort Bragg until well into the discussion indicating it is not the leading asset. Several of the weaknesses relate to county -municipal relations as well as regional dynamics. Harnett County has a base of small businesses but wants more local jobs. The county is struggling with how to grow strategically. Due to growth, managing land use for economic development is a priority. The county is in a good positon to attract talented workers and retain more young people due to proximity to the Raleigh metro. They want to be a part of a regional growth strategy. Threats were wide ranging from public health to infrastructure to state policy. Most of the threats to the economy are not related to the base; however, the threats, such as lack of infrastructure, do impact economic diversification strategies. City of Fayetteville Even though Fayetteville is often seen as dominating the regional economy, there is recognition of the value of the smaller communities around the city. Assets include transportation, workforce, and the healthcare system. Several of the weaknesses are related to the base such as rental housing and low income levels attracting low-end retail. Representatives at the community input session discussed attachment to the base as a weakness and the perception of being attached to the base. The group discussed many opportunities to leverage the base while at the same time diversifying from the base. Many opportunities involve regional collaboration and marketing/branding. Many participants discussed planning fatigue and the threat of this process stalling as has other studies have stalled. They recognized the threats of complacency and negative attitudes to stall progress. Cumberland County Participants quickly identified physical assets, investments in infrastructure and the future as concrete strengths the region has as a foundation. They added a cooperative community with structures and organizations pursuing community goals, as well as leaders that are inclined to act. Fort Bragg is seen as a strength that can be developed and focused in new ways. Especially promising is new programs and growth at Campbell University including a new residency program which will bring hundreds of medical students to the region. Air and ground transportation assets support the economy and connect other assets. Themes of disconnection and mistrust may be able to be addressed by communicating and convening – which may be easier than other resource-heavy solutions. Concern for the portrayal of Fayetteville ‘inside’ Fort Bragg and a fear of the effects of this negative word-of-mouth. Several diverse sources of opportunities include significant higher education assets, under-utilized natural resources for recreation, and the army and Fort Bragg. Entrepreneurship was mentioned several times as an emerging economic development strategy that needs more support. Reductions at Ft Bragg 021417wsa HC BOC Page 24 Impact Greater Fayetteville 11 dominated discussion of threats, including complex military reimbursement programs and funding streams as well as the lack of control the community feels in dealing with Ft Bragg. Hoke County Hoke County is a cohesive community with a good quality of life which has attracted housing developments to serve the Ft Bragg community. At the same time, there is a relatively lower level of public services provided by the county. There is a conflicting view of the low tax rate. There are unmet infrastructure needs at the local level due to the low tax rate at the same time the low tax rate attracts business and homeowners. There is interest in improving connectivity within the county and in recruiting commercial and industrial development from the outside. The group is wary of growth that depends on Ft Bragg, but also sees how the low-tax policy has contributed to the situation. Prior Economic Analyses To help clarify the context of current stakeholder perceptions and to help inform the development of the study team’s recommendations, a summary of prior regional economic development reports was compiled. Prior reports reviewed included BRAC Regional Task Force reports on impacts and opportunities associated with growth in Fort Bragg personnel and a 2012 report entitled A Competitive Realities Report for Fayetteville and Cumberland County, North Carolina, authored by Garner Economics, LLC for the Fayetteville-Cumberland County Chamber of Commerce, and regional growth plans. Most of these reports were written as the number of personnel assigned to Fort Bragg was increasing or expected to increase. Findings included identification of a number of strengths that could be leveraged to capitalize on the increasing military presence as well as an identification of weaknesses that could hinder the region’s ability to reach its full potential in growth and development. Previously identified strengths that continue to be relevant include: o Availability of multiple high quality higher education options —at the community college/vocational training level as well as at the college/university level o Central regional location, with close proximity to Interstate highways and ready access to major southeastern metropolitan areas o Good utility infrastructure, including adequate water and wastewater treatment capacity o A strong, military related labor pool of well-educated and highly capable veterans and spouses o Population diversity o Strong base of small manufacturers However, as this report will show, some attributes that were strengths previously have changed. One example is that the region is no longer outpacing the state or the nation in GDP growth, per capita income growth, or employment growth. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 25 Impact Greater Fayetteville 12 Also, this study has found that many previously identified weaknesses in our region’s economic profile remain, such as limited availability of skilled jobs in manufacturing, in science and technology, in professional services, and in general business management relative to other metropolitan areas of the state. In addition, the region continues to have a below average proportion of its residents with a bachelor’s or higher college degree, tax rates, crime, school quality, and tourism appeal. Prior studies also identified threats (factors that could reduce the region’s economic well- being)—some of which have materialized—such as: o Troop reductions o Federal budget cuts and sequestration o Large troop deployments o Insufficient expansion in non-military sectors to offset high dependence on military incomes and expenditures Growth potential has previously been recognized, but further work is needed to bring these opportunities to full fruition. Prior studies have focused on opportunities for growth in sectors in which there are clusters of expertise, such as defense and security, health care, education, and professional services. This study will explore target clusters and sector growth opportunities further, with potential strategies identified to continue to increase regional prosperity. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 26 Impact Greater Fayetteville 13 78% 16% 5% Regional Employment Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Economic Landscape In order to understand the potential impacts of personnel changes at Fort Bragg it is important to understand the current economic and demographic landscape of the region. The study team examined economic output data, population size and composition, employment levels, educational attainment of the workforce, income levels, veteran presence in the population and their characteristics, and the housing stock. It should be noted that while much of the data will b e presented at a regional level with additional county and town-specific data available in Appendix B. The economic landscape within the target three-county region is clearly dominated by activity occurring in Cumberland County. Cumberland County accounts for approximately 80% of the region’s non-military jobs, 85% of the region’s non-military wage income, and 65% of the region’s total population. Harnett County is the next largest factor in the target region, accounting for 14% of the region’s jobs and 25% of the region’s population. Over 90% of those who live in Cumberland County also work in Cumberland County, while only 30-40% of those who live in Harnett and Hoke Counties work in the county of their residence. Almost 80% of the region’s military personnel currently reside in Cumberland County. Key Regional Economic Data Driving Allocation of Economic Impact Assessment by County Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis 65% 25% 10% Population Percentage Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County 021417wsa HC BOC Page 27 Impact Greater Fayetteville 14 85% 11% 4% Percentage of Regional GDP Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County 78% 13% 9% Military Personnel Residence by County Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County21,35959619292,407F AYETTEVILLE H OPE MILLS LILINGTON RAEF ORD SPRING LAK E MILITARY PERSONNEL LIVING IN TOWNS Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis 021417wsa HC BOC Page 28 Impact Greater Fayetteville 15 The military is clearly the key economic driver for the region, accounting for approximately 31% of the total value of goods and services produced in the Fayetteville Metropolitan Statistical Area (which consists of Cumberland and Hoke Counties) as of the latest available published data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014). Industry employment data from the North Carolina Department of Commerce (which does not include active duty military) shows that aside from the military, the region is highly dependent on public sector jobs (health care, public administration—or government services, and education), which together account for over 50% of non-military wages in the study region. Retail trade and manufacturing are the largest private sector industries in the region, each accounting for about 11% of total regional wages. Table 2: 2015 Employment by Industry in the Three-County Region Wages by Industry Industry Wages as % of Total # of People Employed Avg Weekly Wages Weekly Wages Annualized 1 Health Care and Social Assistance $1,223,961,247 26% 26,793 $732 $38,046 2 Public Administration $ 838,650,342 18% 15,984 $840 $43,701 3 Retail Trade $526,729,255 11% 20,828 $459 $23,875 4 Manufacturing $499,882,437 11% 9,360 $909 $47,291 5 Educational Services $472,834,785 10% 12,505 $727 $37,812 6 Professional Scientific and Technical Services $314,278,314 7% 5,433 $939 $48,807 7 Construction $266,574,183 6% 6,014 $826 $42,957 8 Transportation and Warehousing $250,465,881 5% 5,855 $742 $38,578 9 Accommodation and Food Services $227,650,533 5% 16,535 $243 $12,641 10 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services $219,004,740 5% 7,470 $499 $25,968 11 Wholesale Trade $130,674,996 3% 2,677 $903 $46,955 12 Finance and Insurance $119,036,400 3% 2,420 $887 $46,104 13 Other Services (except Public Administration) $103,309,991 2% 3,524 $492 $25,603 14 Information $78,061,978 2% 1,771 $932 $48,466 15 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $68,711,798 1% 1,972 $591 $30,714 16 Management of Companies and Enterprises $31,110,441 1% 565 $1,054 $54,787 17 Arts Entertainment and Recreation $26,999,811 1% 1,560 $347 $18,048 18 Utilities $26,589,722 1% 437 $838 $43,579 19 Agriculture Forestry Fishing and Hunting $17,944,002 0% 594 $582 $30,282 20 Mining $3,554,441 0% 56 $1,221 $63,472 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 021417wsa HC BOC Page 29 Impact Greater Fayetteville 16 The military contribution to the area’s economy was a key growth driver over the period 2005 - 2010, aided in part by the military’s base realignment process. The military’s share of the regional gross domestic product grew from 31% in 2004 to 34% in 2010, resulting in regional economic growth rates above state and national averages in 2005 and 2007-2009. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP Growth Rate US North Carolina Fayetteville MSA 27.0% 28.0% 29.0% 30.0% 31.0% 32.0% 33.0% 34.0% 35.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Federal Military Contribution to Fayetteville (MSA) Real GDP 021417wsa HC BOC Page 30 Impact Greater Fayetteville 17 However, since a peak in the military’s economic contributions to the region in 2010, military activity has been declining at a rate of 2-4% per year in real terms (i.e. excluding the impact of inflation). As a result, the region’s overall economic output has been declining since 2012 while economic activity in the state and the nation has, on average, been rising. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year-to-Year Change in Fayetteville MSA GDP, by Military vs Non-Military Sources Total Military Non-Military 021417wsa HC BOC Page 31 Impact Greater Fayetteville 18 Table 3: Fort Bragg Troop Strength Trends Source: Fort Bragg Public Relations, January 2016 Similar patterns can be observed even when comparing the Fayetteville area to other peer cities with large military installations. The ramp-up in military presence at Fort Bragg resulted in higher GDP growth than most comparable military metropolitan areas, but the declines in military activity since 2011 at Fort Bragg have resulted in lower GDP growth in the Fayetteville area than in most other peer cities. Fort Bragg Population ASIP COP Data (31 January 2016)FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Active Duty Army Military 44,436 45,437 45,290 45,051 44,954 44,702 42,532 41,716 PCS Students Military 2,208 2,638 2,966 1,917 2,701 2,306 3,140 2,163 Other Military ( Air Force, Other Services)785 818 751 2,936 2,862 2,998 3,002 3,002 Total Active Component 47,429 48,893 49,007 49,904 50,517 50,006 48,674 46,881 Training Military (TDY Students, Transient & Rotational)3,787 2,305 2,536 2,813 2,899 3,480 2,733 2,956 Reserve Component Military (Assigned at Fort Bragg)1,891 1,810 1,816 3,207 3,281 3,283 3,262 3,391 Total Fort Bragg Military Population 53,107 53,008 53,359 55,924 56,697 56,769 54,669 53,228 Civilian Employees (Assigned at Fort Bragg)9,340 10,158 11,344 14,116 14,515 14,380 14,470 14,663 Contract Employees (Working at Fort Bragg) 6,688 6,984 5,472 5,481 5,496 6,342 5,888 5,552 Military Family Members (Active Duty Military)72,092 74,317 74,491 75,854 76,786 76,009 73,984 71,259 Total Fort Bragg Population 141,227 144,467 144,666 151,375 153,494 153,500 149,011 144,702 Peak Active Duty Peak Total 021417wsa HC BOC Page 32 Impact Greater Fayetteville 19 Figure 1: Illustrative Benchmark Comparisons Source: Various articles, Installation web sites, and U.S. Census Illustrative Benchmark Comparisons Ft. Hood / Killeen, Texas Military Population 2010: 52,000 2016: 38,000 2017 Forecast: 35,000 2015 Total City Population: 141,000 Ft. Benning / Columbus, GA Military Population 2012: 13,000 2016: 12,600 2017 Forecast: 9,000 2015 Total City Population: 201,000 Redstone Arsenal / Huntsville, AL Military Population Active Duty: 1,000 Federal Civilians: 19,500 Contractors: 15,000 2015 Total City Population: 191,000 Fort Bragg / Fayetteville, NC Military Population 2010: 49,000 2016: 47,000 2015 Total City Population: 202,000 021417wsa HC BOC Page 33 Impact Greater Fayetteville 20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The impacts of reductions in military presence on population have been felt particularly hard in Cumberland County. While population in Harnett and Hoke counties has continued to grow over the 2010-2015 period at or above state average growth rates of 1-2% per year, population in Cumberland County has been declining slightly, in the range of -0.2 to -0.6% per year. Table 4: Year-to-Year Population Growth, by County 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cumberland 1.2% -0.2% 1.0% -0.2% -0.6% Harnett 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% 1.0% Hoke 4.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 2.0% Total 3 Counties 1.9% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% State 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Concomitant with the declining military presence at Fort Bragg has been regional underperformance relative to state and national averages along a number of economic -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Real GDP Growth Rate US Columbus Fayetteville Huntsville Killeen-Temple 021417wsa HC BOC Page 34 Impact Greater Fayetteville 21 dimensions--including family incomes, unemployment rates, new business formation, and housing. Each of the counties in the region has lower median household incomes than the state, which itself trails the nation on this metric. The differences are more pronounced on a per capita basis. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Median Household Income US North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Per Capita Income US North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County 021417wsa HC BOC Page 35 Impact Greater Fayetteville 22 As shown in the table below, the target region has been experiencing some level of aggregate growth in jobs and income over the past several years, but the level of growth is below average for the state. Table 5: Year-to-Year Growth in Jobs, Wages, and Establishments 2013 2014 2015 3 County Region Employment (# jobs) 0.0% -1.0% 0.1% Total Wages 1.0% -1.4% 2.6% # of Establishments -1.2% 0.6% 1.4% State 2013 2014 2015 Employment (# jobs) 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% Total Wages 3.4% 4.8% 6.2% # of Establishments 0.3% 0.8% 3.4% Source: Relative levels of household incomes had been fairly stable, but recent data indicates that while many other areas of the state are experiencing growing incomes, median family income in the Fayetteville MSA declined by almost 4% in 2016. Table 6: Median Family Income Median Family Income Period Level (000s) QoQ % Change YOY % Change Asheville MSA 2016 57.9 - 3.58 Charlotte MSA 2016 670 - -0.3 Durham MSA 2016 74.9 - 11.13 Fayetteville MSA 2016 522 - -3.87 Greensboro-High Point MSA 2016 572 - 5.93 Raleigh-Cary MSA 2016 76.6 - -2.79 Winston-Salem MSA 2016 585 - 4.28 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Similarly, recent data in Table 7 indicates that area unemployment rates are among the highest in North Carolina metropolitan areas. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 36 Impact Greater Fayetteville 23 Table 7: Labor Market Conditions Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate (SA) October-16 September-16 October-15 United States 4.90 5.0 5.0 Fifth District 4.6 4.5 5.2 North Carolina 4.9 4.7 5.6 Asheville MSA 4.1 4.1 4.6 Charlotte MSA 4.7 4.7 5.3 Durham MSA 4.3 4.3 5.0 Fayetteville MSA 6.3 6.1 7.3 Greensboro-High Point MSA 5.0 5.1 5.9 Raleigh-Cary MSA 4.2 4.2 4.8 Wilmington MSA 4.8 4.8 5.5 Winston-Salem MSA 4.7 4.7 5.4 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Associated with lower than average—and declining—incomes and higher than average unemployment rates are above average mortgage delinquency, home foreclosure, and repossessed property rates. It must be noted, however, that these home mortgage issues are not near crisis levels. Table 8: Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: North Carolina Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: North Carolina September 2015 September 2016 Percent 90+ Days Past Due Percent in Foreclosure Percent in REO Percent 90+ Days Past Due Percent in Foreclosure Percent in REO Geographic Area Asheville 1.00 0.71 0.39 0.86 0.45 0.34 Burlington 1.86 1.01 0.71 1.57 0.66 0.63 Charlotte-Gastonia 1.76 0.94 0.48 1.51 0.62 0.39 Durham 1.83 0.65 0.41 1.50 0.45 0.40 Fayetteville 3.38 1.32 0.90 2.74 0.97 1.16 Goldsboro 2.64 1.04 0.86 1.99 0.82 1.03 Greensboro 2.01 0.94 0.73 1.75 0.71 0.68 Greenville 1.98 1.00 0.62 1.65 0.75 0.68 Hickory-Lenoir 1.56 1.07 0.78 1.41 0.71 0.78 Jacksonville 3.22 1.73 1.43 2.53 1.60 1.88 Kill Devil Hills 1.09 0.72 0.40 1.00 0.52 0.44 021417wsa HC BOC Page 37 Impact Greater Fayetteville 24 Raleigh-Cary 1.44 0.61 0.30 1.21 0.43 0.26 Rocky Mount 3.16 1.51 1.12 3.04 1.20 1.22 Wilmington 1.36 0.86 0.58 1.18 0.61 0.60 Winston-Salem 1.85 0.93 0.64 1.72 0.71 0.67 North Carolina 1.90 0.93 0.60 1.62 0.67 0.59 Fifth District 1.80 1.14 0.76 1.56 0.80 0.73 United States 1.72 1.50 0.74 1.46 1.08 0.67 Note: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. Areas with fewer than 100 total loans will receive an N/A. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond/McDash Analytics (September 2016) One factor that often hinders creation of new, well-paying employment opportunities in an area is perceived lack of access to a skilled, or well-educated labor pool. This region lags both the state and nation in the proportion of its labor force that have attained at least a bachelor’s degree or higher. For example, 22% of Cumberland County residents over the age of 25 have attained a bachelor’s degree, compared to an average of 30% for the state and 45-50% for Durham and Wake counties. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic data also confirms the presence of assets that could help fuel future growth, despite the prospects of continued reductions in military presence. One key asset is the disproportionate presence of a skilled, disciplined set of military veterans. Of the 179,999 civilians 25 years and over that reside in Cumberland County, 40,192 or 22.3% are veterans. Among this veteran population within the county, 77% have some college or associate degrees and higher, and 27% have a bachelor’s degree or higher—representing significantly higher educational attainment than the average non-veteran population. On an annual basis, an average of 6,000 service personnel normally separate from the US Army via Fort Bragg. It is estimated that as many as one-third remain in the area. Surveys indicate that even more 12% 27% 39% 22% Civilian Population 25 Years and Over -Cumberland County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 021417wsa HC BOC Page 38 Impact Greater Fayetteville 25 transitioning veterans (55%) would remain in the region if suitable employment were available. (HAS Report, 2016). This large labor pool of skilled workers could be an attractive proposition to other private- and public-sector employers. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Education represents another important regional asset, including three community colleges in Fayetteville Technical Community College, Central Carolina Community College and a satellite location of Sandhills Community College — each of which is known to be highly responsive to specialized training needs of regional employers, and three well-regarded colleges in Fayetteville State University, Campbell University, and Methodist University offering excellent preparation for such high potential occupations as healthcare/healthcare administration, business management, accounting, information technology, cyber security, and teaching. While the area also offers many other quality of life benefits, it should be noted that one particularly attractive attribute is relatively high housing affordability, with close to 80% of the area’s housing for sale being affordable for a family making the median income for the region. Table 9: Real Estate Conditions Real Estate Conditions Housing Opportunity Index (%) Q3:16 Q2:16 Q3:15 Asheville MSA 59.3 60.0 62.9 Charlotte MSA 69.7 70.0 69.5 Durham MSA 72.4 73.7 70.2 Fayetteville MSA 77.4 79. 5 80. 5 Greensboro-High Pont MSA 77.6 76.7 74.1 Raleigh-Cary MSA 67.2 69.0 72.5 3% 20% 50% 27% Veterans -Cumberland County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 021417wsa HC BOC Page 39 Impact Greater Fayetteville 26 Winston-Salem MSA 83.2 79.8 80.8 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Prospective Impacts on Public Education Military demographic information indicates that 48% of active duty army personnel have dependent children. Among those army families with children, the average number of dependent children is 2.1, with 34% being pre-school (0-4 years old), 33% being elementary school (5-10 years old), 13% middle school (11-13 years old), and 16% high school (14 – 18 years old) (Source: 2014 Demographics: Profile of the Military Community, U.S. Dept. of Defense). Based on this recent demographic data, a reduction of 3,000 active duty military personnel would be expected to lead to a reduction of close to 3,000 school a ge children, in the following distribution: o Pre-School: 1,019 o Elementary Children: 999 o Middle School: 380 o High School: 473 o Total: 2,871 This level of prospective future impact is comparable to the reductions in the number of military-connected students that have in fact already taken place over the past several years. The Department of Defense provides data on military-connected students by school district for districts with high proportions of such students. This data indicates that for Cumberland Coun ty Schools there was a reduction of 2,700 military-connected students from FY 2014 to FY 2017. From a FY 2012 peak of 16,000 military connected students, representing 31% of Cumberland County Schools students, the military-connected proportion has declined by almost 4,000 students, accounting for approximately 24% of the total as of FY 2017. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 40 Impact Greater Fayetteville 27 Associated with declines in military-connected students have been declines in Impact Aid grants provided by the federal government to local education agencies (I.e. school districts) that are located near military installations. While there are several impact aid-related grants available, the figure above shows the decline of $3.4 million that has taken place for Impact Aid supporting general operations for Cumberland County Schools since FY 2012. 52 52 53 53 52 51 16 15 15 14 13 12 31%30%28% 27%25%24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% - 10 20 30 40 50 60 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Military As $% of TotalNumber of StudentsThousandsMilitary-Connected Students in Cumberland County Schools Total Students Military Mil % 021417wsa HC BOC Page 41 Impact Greater Fayetteville 28 It is interesting to note that the decline in military-connected students has been almost completely offset by an increase in students who are not dependents of military personnel. This could be an indication that many of the families with school age children who are transitioning away from the military may be choosing to stay in the area. Housing Impacts Estimates of the potential impacts on the local housing market were derived by first examining Census Bureau data to determine current residential locations of active duty military-affiliated personnel in the target region. Guidance received from the regional association of realtors indicated that of those living off post approximately half rented and half were purchasi ng their homes. Assuming that these trends remained constant with troop reductions, a cut of 3,000 troops would be felt most in Cumberland County, which could experience an increase in overall vacant housing of as much as 9.2%, increasing vacancy rates in the County to as much as 16.2% from a 2014 level of 12.9%. Table 10: Increase in Vacant Housing 2014 Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Total Population 325,814 126,865 51,644 504,323 Population 16 and over 247,401 91,521 36,653 375,575 Armed forces 26,994 4,454 3,130 34,578 Owner-occupied units 65,642 27,488 11,010 104,140 Renter-occupied units 56,646 14,113 5,524 76,283 Vacant housing units 18,122 6,521 2,613 27,256 Owner vacancy rate 3.0% 2.5% 3.8% Rental vacancy rate 8.8% 8.7% 9.2% Overall vacancy rate 12.9% 13.9% 13.6% Median housing value ($) $ 128,600 $ 133,400 $ 143,500 Units occupied by armed forces 26,994 4,454 3,130 34,578 Estimated armed forces owner-occupied 13,497 2,227 1,565 17,289 Estimated armed forces renter-occupied 13,497 2,227 1,565 17,289 3,000 Armed Forces Reduction: Housing units lost 1,664 275 193 2,131 021417wsa HC BOC Page 42 Impact Greater Fayetteville 29 % Increase in vacant housing 9.2% 4.2% 7.4% 7.8% 2,000 Armed Forces Reduction: Housing units lost 1,109 183 129 1,421 % Increase in vacant housing 6.1% 2.8% 4.9% 5.2% 1,000 Armed Forces Reduction: Housing units lost 555 92 64 710 % Increase in vacant housing 3.1% 1.4% 2.5% 2.6% Source: US Census Bureau Additional analysis of the defense contracting sector to be provided. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 43 Impact Greater Fayetteville 30 Troop Reduction Scenarios As noted above, the number of active duty military personnel assigned to Fort Bragg has already declined by approximately 4,000 over the period FY 2012 to FY 2015. These declines were essentially ‘under the radar’, with no public annou ncements or descriptions. Since 2015, the only specific reductions that have been announced have been the closing of the 440th Airlift Wing in 2016, representing a reduction of over 1,000 personnel from peak levels, which was offset by an increase in another command. A reduction of another 840 Army soldiers was said to be expected by 2018, but no confirmed details of this expectation were made public. The study team was asked to create future troop reduction scenarios of 1000, 2000, and 3,000 personnel. Two different approaches were used to develop these illustrative projections of potential future outcomes. o Scenario 1 is based on the 2013-2015 Armed Forces annual survey of consumer expenditures by military personnel and their families. This survey was used to determine the typical disposable income and expenditure patterns for 3,000, 2,000, and 1,000 soldiers. It assumed that (1) the drawdown of troops will continue to reflect the existing ratio of civilian personnel to the active duty soldiers; (2) other than the local installation contracts, the number and value of Department of Defense contracts are uncorrelated to the size of troops; and (3) the active duty soldiers who are separated from Fort Bragg do not stay in the area. o Scenario 2 develops average salary assumptions of military personnel who may be reduced based on assumptions that assumes that future reductions will take place primarily at the battalion level, weighted more heavily to more junior level personnel than would be assumed in Scenario 1. This approach was also recommended by a military liaison affiliated with the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment. The personnel ranks and classification comprising a typical Army battalion were used to compute personnel payroll. Adjustments were made in payroll for relevant federal taxes and saving rates to derive the disposable incomes for different personnel levels. The average disposable income was used to compute total disposable inco me for 3,000, 2,000, and 1,000 troops. It is assumed that separation of active duty soldiers will result in at least 10% reduction in civilians jobs. On consultant's recommendation, it was stipulated that one-quarter of civilian jobs will be in each of the following salary levels: GS 11, 12, 13, and 14. Relevant federal and state taxes and average saving rate were deducted to obtain total Civilian disposable income. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 44 Impact Greater Fayetteville 31 Figure 2: Generic 500-Sopldier U.S. Army Battalion (for planning purposes) Source: Planning Document of the U.S. Army (500) Total Battalion HQ Company Company A Company B Support Company Intel Section Logistics Section Medical Section HQ Platoon (125)(100)(75) (15) (10) (10) (33) (100) Company C (100) Personnel Section (10) Operations Section (30) Communications Section (15) Maintenance Platoon Distribution Platoon Feeding Section HQ Platoon (5) (15) (17) (38) Special Staff (2) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 45 Impact Greater Fayetteville 32 Potential Economic Impact of Further Troop Reductions The IMPLAN econometric modelling software is used in this study to estimate the economic impact of troop reductions at Fort Bragg. The IMPLAN Pro software is widely used by academic institutions, federal, state and local governmental agencies. The software uses input-output tables to track how dollars injected into a sector are spent and re -spent in other sectors of the economy creating ripple effects in the entire region. Under Scenario 1, the IMPLAN results indicate: o A reduction of 3,000 troops could result in the loss of approximately 5,000 additional full-time and part-time jobs, $618 million in sales, $264 million in wages and salaries and $12 million in tax revenues. o With a 2,000 troop reduction, the region will lose full-time and part-time jobs 3,238 jobs, approximately $416 million in sales, $268 million in wages and salaries and about $8 million in taxes. o With a 1,000 soldier draw down, the region will lose 1,618 full-time and part-time jobs, almost $99 million in sales, approximately $88 million in wages and salaries and about $5 million in state and local taxes. Each 100 active duty military jobs in the region support as many as 60 other jobs (including civilians at Fort Bragg); each active duty military job can support an average of as much as $90,000 in labor income—representing soldier income plus income for a soldier’s share of supported jobs Table 11: Fort Bragg Troops Reduction Scenario 1 Economic Impact 3000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -4,847 ($264,458,573) ($617,522,885) ($12,087,902) Harnett County -6.5 ($169,138) ($244,877) ($23,279) Hoke County -2.5 ($35,895) ($176,356) ($5,167) Total Impact -4,856.0 ($264,663,606) ($618,344,116) ($12,116,348) 2000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County 3,231.90 ($176,305,715) ($411,681,907) ($8,058,259) Harnett County -4.3 ($112,759) ($4,429,918) ($15,512) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 46 Impact Greater Fayetteville 33 Hoke County -1.6 ($23,932) ($117,836) ($3,444) Total Economic Impact -3,237.80 ($267,632,801) ($416,229,661) ($8,077,215) 1000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -1,615.00 ($88,152,857) ($98,514,207) ($1,712,323) Harnett County -2.2 ($56,379) ($214,959) ($3,151) Hoke County -0.8 ($11,966) $58,918 ($699) Total Impact -1,618,90 ($88,221,203) ($98,788,084) ($($1,716,173) Source: IMPLAN model and authors’ calculations As expected, the residents of Cumberland County will bear the brunt of the adverse economic impact of reduction in troops. For example, for a loss of 3,000 soldiers, over 99% of the region’s reductions in jobs, wages, and sales would occur in Cumberland County. The top ten industries impacted given the Scenario 1 approach are shown in Table 12. Other than federal government, the major sectors that will lose jobs are limited-service restaurants, full-service restaurants, real estate sector, office of physicians, genera l merchandise stores, nursing and community care facilities, food and drinking places, food and beverages stores, and personal care services. The real estate sector will lose almost 49 jobs and $8 million in sales. The offices of physicians will see a reduction of 37 jobs and a loss of about $5 million in sales. Offices of physicians and nursing facilities together will also experience about $4 million reduction in wages and salaries. Top ten losers in terms of wages and salaries are also shown in the table. Table 12: Top Ten Industries/Sectors Cumberland County Top Ten Sectors by Employment Total Employment 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -4,044.0 502 Limited-service restaurants -62.7 501 Full-service restaurants -57.9 440 Real estate -48.7 475 Offices of physicians -36.8 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -35.7 483 Nursing and community care facilities -30.7 503 All other food and drinking places -26.8 400 Retail - Food and beverage stores -24.3 509 Personal care services -24.2 021417wsa HC BOC Page 47 Impact Greater Fayetteville 34 Top Ten Sectors by Labor Income Total Labor Income 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -258,262,072.4 475 Offices of physicians -3,089,430.8 501 Full-service restaurants -1,085,560.1 434 Nondepository credit intermediation and related activities -1,061,034.6 502 Limited-service restaurants -940,052.9 483 Nursing and community care facilities -919,302.4 504 Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes -914,022.4 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -907,154.5 396 Retail - Motor vehicle and parts dealers -855,422.3 395 Wholesale trade -811,931.5 Top Ten Sectors by Output Total Output 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -495,893,093.0 441 Owner-occupied dwellings -17,101,382.0 440 Real estate -8,392,286.1 475 Offices of physicians -4,911,116.0 502 Limited-service restaurants -4,368,363.2 428 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) -2,746,040.8 395 Wholesale trade -2,725,459.5 501 Full-service restaurants -2,324,109.7 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -2,182,999.4 433 Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation -2,004,096.6 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. The economic impact of potential reduction of troops in Scenario 2 is similar to Scenario 1, although smaller. Scenario 2 impacts include: o With a 3,000 troop reduction, the region will lose approximately 3,630 jobs, $450 million in sales, $107 million in wages and salaries and 5 million in state and local tax revenues. o With a 2,000 troop reduction, the region will lose 2,395 jobs, $291.3 million in sales, $63.7 million in wages and salaries and about $3 million in state and local taxes. o With 1,000 soldiers draw down, the region will lose approximately 1,618 jobs, $105 million in sales, $35.8 million in wages and salaries and about $3.7million in state and local taxes. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 48 Impact Greater Fayetteville 35 Table 13: Fort Bragg Troops Reduction Scenario 2 Economic Impact 3000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -3,627 ($107,589,895) ($450,204,241) ($5,147,004) Harnett County -2.6 ($68,811) ($262,356) ($9,479) Hoke County -1 ($14,605) ($71,900) ($2,102) Total Impact -3,630.6 ($107,673,311) ($450,538,497) ($5,158,585) 2000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -2,393.00 ($63,659,523) ($291,115,618) ($3,026,483) Harnett County -1.6 ($40,714) ($155,232) ($5,543) Hoke County -0.6 ($8,641) ($45,548) ($1,243) Total Economic Impact -2,395.20 ($63,708,878) ($291,316,398) ($3,033,269) 1000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -1,208.00 ($35,783,426) ($105,041,297) ($1,712,323) Harnett County -0.9 ($22,886) ($87,257) ($3.151) Hoke County -0.3 ($22,816) ($29,916) ($699) Total Economic Impact -1,618.90 ($35,829,128) ($105,158,470) ($1,716,173) Multipliers Employment Output Labor Income Multiplier Multiplier Multiplier 3,000 Troops 1.1 1.08 1.1 Source: IMPLAN model and authors’ calculations The impact of reduction in 3,000 soldiers on top ten sectors by labor income, output, and employment are shown in Table 13. The major industries that will be impacted by the drawdown of 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 troops will be federal government, limited serv ice restaurants, real estate, retail, offices of physicians, nursing and community care facilities. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 49 Impact Greater Fayetteville 36 Table 14: Top Ten by Labor Income Description Labor Income * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -75,383,357.5 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -21,599,222.9 Offices of physicians -1,160,143.1 Full-service restaurants -407,649.6 Nondepository credit intermediation and related activities -398,439.7 Limited-service restaurants -353,008.7 Nursing and community care facilities -345,216.5 Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes -343,233.7 Retail - General merchandise stores -340,654.7 Retail - Motor vehicle and parts dealers -321,228.2 Top Ten by Output Total Output * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -367,873,213.8 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -46,261,371.7 Owner-occupied dwellings -6,421,911.4 Real estate -3,151,471.5 Offices of physicians -1,844,222.4 Limited-service restaurants -1,640,407.9 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) -1,031,193.3 Wholesale trade -1,023,464.6 Full-service restaurants -872,749.7 Retail - General merchandise stores -819,760.0 Top Ten by Employment Total Employment * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -3,000.0 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -300.0 Limited-service restaurants -23.5 Full-service restaurants -21.8 Real estate -18.3 Offices of physicians -13.8 Retail - General merchandise stores -13.4 Nursing and community care facilities -11.5 All other food and drinking places -10.1 Retail - Food and beverage stores -9.1 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 50 Impact Greater Fayetteville 37 Economic Impact by Other Major Industries Scenario 1 and 2 impacts on specific industries are detailed in Table 15. The estimates are based on the 2013-2015 Annual Expenditure of Armed Forces Survey disposable income of a majority of the households included in the survey. In Scenario 1, the actual spending on each item was multiplied by number of soldiers to obtain the total spending. Scenario 2 expenditures are based on the total disposable income of a generic battalion. The total spending was calculated by multiplying average spending of all consuming units in the survey b y the total disposable income of 3,000, 2000, and 1,000 soldiers. The potential reduction of 3,000 soldiers under Scenario s 1 and 2 will impact other major industries as follows: the food industry will lose sales between $24 million and $9.5 million; restaurants between $7 million and $3 million; alcoholic beverages between $1.5 million and $867,796; furniture industry between $1.6 million and $591,546; new cars and trucks dealers between $5.7 million and $2.8 million; used cars and trucks between $7.5 million and $2.5 million; entertainment industry between $9 million and $3.7 million; personal care products and services between $2 million and $909,570; and major appliances between $782,910 and $336,397. Table 15: Impact by Major Industries Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Total 3000 Troops Total with 2000 Troops Total 1000 Troops Total 3ooo Troops Total 2ooo Troops Total 1ooo Troops Food $24,459,540 $16,306,360 $6,879,380 $9,571,565 $6,381,043 $3,190,422 Meals at restaurants, carry outs and other* $8,734,590 $5,833,060 $2,338,060 $3,374,829 $2,249,879 $1,124,591 Alcoholic beverages $1,542,450 $1,028,300 $383,890 $867,796 $445,196 $222,538 Housing $12,828,270 $8,552,180 4,376,090 $4,005,159 $2,698,099 $1,734,689 Mortgage interest and charges $825,230 $550,620 $275,310 $520,470 $346,970 $173,442 Household furnishings and equipment $5,523,980 $3,669,320 $1,132,100 $2,321,116 $1,546,517 $773,696 Furniture $1,615,890 $1,077,260 $362,450 $593,546 $394,495 $197,859 New Cars and trucks $5,784,480 $3,856,320 $896,600 $2,385,796 $1,589,581 $795,240 Used Cars and Trucks $7,511,040 $5,007,360 $2,225,520 $2,501,078 $1,666,390 $833,666 Major Appliances $782,910 $521,940 $137,710 $336,397 $224,264 $112,128 Gasoline and motor oil $8,657,430 $5,771,620 $2,405,030 $3,104,394 $2,068,360 $1,120,890 Vehicle insurance* $3,050,970 $2,033,980 $884,730 $1,504,379 $1,002,321 $501,444 021417wsa HC BOC Page 51 Impact Greater Fayetteville 38 Leased and rental vehicles $2,092,800 $1,395,200 $539,400 $400,200 $266,641 $133,396 Health insurance $7,167,540 $4,778,360 $1,613,550 $3,770,259 $2,512,005 $1,265,713 Hospital room and services $472,740 $311,160 $91,560 $183,579 $122,313 $61,191 Entertainment $9,073,830 $6,049,220 $2,054,230 $3,780,245 $2,518,659 $1,260,042 Personal care products and services $2,089,680 $1,393,120 $557,020 $909,670 $606,084 $303,212 College tuition $754,410 $502,940 $25,790 $1,107,701 $736,518 $368,245 Elementary and high school tuition $519,150 $346,100 $86,610 $216,903 $144,600 $72,298 Legal fees $433,590 $289,060 $121,100 $183,593 $122,322 $61,395 Accounting fees $145,110 $96,740 $33,440 $94,565 $63,605 $31,820 Cash contributions to charities and other organizations $268,800 $179,200 $89,600 $300,833 $200,436 $100,274 Cash contributions to church, religious organizations $1,901,640 $1,267,760 $89,600 $1,024,722 $682,650 $341,518 Cash contribution to educational institutions $129,180 $86,120 $63,600 $60,578 $40,361 $20,192 Source: 2013-2015 Annual Expenditure of Armed Forces Survey and authors’ calculations. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 52 Impact Greater Fayetteville 39 Target Sectors The purpose of this Target Industry Validation is to review, identify, update, and validate promising industry sectors, for Fayetteville, North Carolina, including Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties. By recruiting new companies to the region, the potentially negative economic impacts can be mitigated. Beyond the scope of troop reductions, the Fayetteville region should seek to diversify the economy. Objective II B in Fayetteville’s FY2017-18 strategic plan is “to implement strategies that diversify the city’s tax base and increase the industrial and commercial tax bases.” Before implementing target marketing awareness and business attraction strategies, it is critically important that proper analysis and research be done. Matching the strengths and assets of the Fayetteville region with the needs of growing and expanding companies is vital to the success of targeting. For this study, we looked at area advantages the region can build upon to expand their economic base. We also analyzed the target sectors of each county to ensure our recommendations do not conflict with local strategies. We factored in economic and demographic trends, industry growth trends, and existing industries in the region. In addition, we evaluated industry and company types which would find the Fayetteville region attractive. Fayetteville possesses many assets and strengths, including infrastructure, location, workforce, and military resources. We also want to recognize the natural resources, recreational opportunities, and overall quality of life. Our objective is to recommend industries that are the most feasible and the most desirable for the region. Based on our research and analysis, we recommend the following target industry sectors. o Logistics and Warehousing o Defense and Security o Advanced Manufacturing o Business Services Recommended Targets Logistics and Warehousing Fayetteville is in the perfect location to take advantage of the opportunities in Logistics and Warehousing. The existing logistics and distribution industry in the region is flourishing for good reason. The transportation assets of the region are evident – with ready access to top- interstates, rail, and airports. Fayetteville’s location is also in the center of the Eastern seaboard with access to a large p opulation. Additionally, Fayetteville and the surrounding region have a skilled workforce for this cluster, as evidenced from the existing companies. The industry cluster is broad, including freight forwarding, warehousing, wholesaling, e-commerce, and supply chain planning segments. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 53 Impact Greater Fayetteville 40 Defense and Security The Fayetteville region can build upon the Defense and Security Cluster existing in the region, with a focus on traditional segments, as well as, developing technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles, robotics, and biometrics. The Fayetteville region has a long military history and represents the largest Army base in the world. Even though government spending on defense is expected to remain stagnant, commercial applications will continue their gro wth. While the Fayetteville region doesn’t want to be dependent on the military for industry growth, the military association with the region is known worldwide. It will help open conversations with leads and prospects. The military presence at Fort Bragg and the large pool of skilled workers in the area will encourage growing and expanding companies to consider the area in order to access the talent pool. The educational assets in the region also support this industry well. This industry cluster can include search and navigation instruments, aerospace, communications equipment, wiring, cybersecurity, and other related areas. There may be significant growth potential associated with increasing the share of defense contracts performed for Fort Bragg commands that are fulfilled by companies with significant local presence. As an example, almost two-thirds of contracts performed for commands based at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama are fulfilled by companies with a major presence in the near -by Huntsville, Alabama metropolitan area. This contrasts with what appears to be less than 20% of Fort Bragg contracts being fulfilled by companies with local presence in the greater Fayetteville region. There may be opportunities to attract on a targeted basis companies f ulfilling contracts from other states to locate major offices near Fort Bragg. There may also be opportunities to help existing small defense contractors or other businesses in the region grow with targeted assistance focused on commercializing military technology. The Department of Defense has initiatives currently underway to help drive military technology into non-military applications (designing and manufacturing unmanned aerial vehicles for agricultural applications might be one illustrative example). Advanced Manufacturing The Fayetteville region is diverse but has room to grow its manufacturing base. Both Cumberland and Harnett Counties have a lower percentage of manufacturing when compared to the state average. However, Hoke County has a comparatively large manufacturing base. There is opportunity to grow in several sub-segments in the region such as chemicals, electrical equipment, and automotive suppliers. Many of these segments have experienced 021417wsa HC BOC Page 54 Impact Greater Fayetteville 41 healthy growth over the past few years and are forecasted to continue growth into the future. This cluster will benefit from the transportation network, in the region as well as the available skilled workforce and education resources. This cluster will support the transportation, aviation, and defense industries in the area as well as production technology that serves many other industries. Business Services Business Services, from banking and insurance to management consulting and software, will find a good home in the Fayetteville region. An educated workforce is available for office-based industries, augmented each year by exiting military personnel, military spouses, and graduating students. The Fayetteville region has room to grow in this industry and should take advantage of the opportunity of growth in business services. Many segments have experienced recent growth and will continue to grow and expand into the future: data processing, search engines, credit card processing, load administration, portfolio management, insurance claims adjusting, and payroll and bookkeeping services. Small Business and Entrepreneurial Opportunities Table 16 shows the industries and sectors in Cumberland, Harnett and Hoke Counties with excess demand that is not currently met by local suppliers. These sectors represent small business development and entrepreneurial opportunities, which are discussed in the strategies section of this report. Table 16: Sectors/Industries with Excess Demand in the Region Sectors/Industry with Excess Demand Cumberland County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 4452 Specialty Food Stores $118,871,795 445 Food and Beverages stores $106,600,864 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $71,245,517 447 Gasoline Stations $29,067,044 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $19,179,338 4453 Beer wine and Liquor Stores $9,518,640 4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment Supply Stores $8,912,064 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $7,305,590 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $4,096,069 7223 Special Food Services $2,665,089 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $941,440 021417wsa HC BOC Page 55 Impact Greater Fayetteville 42 4533 Used Merchandise stores $295,220 Harnett County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 452 General Merchandise Stores $121,589,741 4521 Department Stores excluding leased Department $92,357,060 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $72,369,671 4411 Automobile Dealers $51,683,618 448 Clothing and Clothing Specialty Stores $47,849,557 4452 Specialty Food Stores $42,729,539 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $40,612,988 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $36,245,968 4481 Clothing stores $33,244,535 4529 Other Merchandise Stores $29,232,681 7221 Full service restaurants $25,110,802 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,994,285 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $23,432,353 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $23,247,950 454 Non-stores Retailers $22,690,780 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $20,164,871 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $19,939,839 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $18,360,460 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $18,320,132 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $15,994,448 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $13,806,470 4421 Furniture stores $9,372,208 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $8,926,985 7222 Limited service eating places $6,235,111 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $6,062,522 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $6,015,941 4482 Shoe Stores $5,678,037 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $5,112,221 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,434,262 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $3,414,533 4542 Vending Machines Operators $915,787 Hoke County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $105,410,540 4411 Automobile Dealers $91,224,024 445 Food and beverages stores $53,004,844 4451 Grocery Stores $34,439,999 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $29,064,135 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $22,359,196 021417wsa HC BOC Page 56 Impact Greater Fayetteville 43 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $21,481,614 443 Electronic and Appliances stores $21,481,614 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $20,624,928 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $19,022,043 4441 Bldg Materials and supply dealers $19,022,043 4452 Specialty Food Stores $17,638,583 446 Health and Personal care stores $15,804,471 4482 Shoe Stores $15,350,457 4481 Clothing stores $15,350,457 7222 Limited service eating places $13,905,689 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $13,139,150 7221 Full service restaurants $12,238,585 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $10,839,340 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $10,496,599 447 Gasoline Stations $10,496,599 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $9,473,764 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $8,838,187 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $7,513,235 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $6,535,758 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories and Tire Services $5,348,329 4421 Furniture stores $5,231,084 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $5,006,311 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $4,018,395 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $3,014,563 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $2,537,562 454 Non-stores Retailers $2,537,562 7224 Drinking Places Alcohol beverages $2,307,500 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $1,976,712 4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies $1,602,985 4533 Used merchandise stores $1,380,510 4453 Beer, Wine and liquor stores $926,262 7223 Special Food Services $612,361 4531 Florists $385,510 Source: ESRI Reports 021417wsa HC BOC Page 57 Impact Greater Fayetteville 44 Workforce Development Strategies Synopsis The Fayetteville State University (FSU) team prepared an inventory of the skills and experiences of expected separating soldiers and impacted civilian workers and matched them with the labor force needs of the region. The bottom line result is that there does not seem to be a major disconnect between the numbers or abilities of separating soldiers and needs of the region. Where additional training is indicated, special arrangements can be made with the regional community colleges including Fayetteville Technical Community College (FTCC), Sandhills Community College (SCC), and Central Carolina Community College (CCCC) to provide much of the ‘gap’ education, and/or perhaps with the area’s three universities as well. To those separating soldiers and civilians who aspire to develop their own businesses, technical and business planning assistance can be provided by the FTCC, SCC, and CCCC Small Business Centers, the FSU Small Business and Technology Development Center (SBTDC), and Veteran Business Outreach Center (VBOC). Those who lose Fort Bragg base support contracts can be provided technical assistance through the FTCC-based Military Business Center (this might include contractors, suppliers and service providers). Longer term, the education/training and workforce and economic development entities will need to work much more closely together to develop skills and talent pipelines for any emerging cluster industries and sector employers involved in any diversification strategy across the tri-county region. It is hoped that this plan will help guide civilian and military service providers and increase awareness of private and public sector employers regarding this talent pool for the tri-county region and larger state labor market. Detailed Workforce Development Implementation Planning Approach Based on the results of the economic analyses - current and future recommended scenarios - of the three major impact counties, a set of implementable recommendations regarding inter- related and -dependent workforce/talent and economic development and education issues are included in this overall assessment and proactive action plan. While the FSU team possessed expert knowledge of these realms, the in-depth analysis and recommended strategies that follow include input from many other key ‘Workforce/Economic Development’ (WD/ED) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 58 Impact Greater Fayetteville 45 community/regional stakeholders/partners including: two sister four-year institutions: Methodist University and Campbell University; FSU’s SBTDC and VBOC; three regional community colleges (including their Small Business Centers, and FTCC’s Military Business Center); three local Workforce Development Boards; Chambers of Commerce; Fort Bragg’s Transition Assistance Program (TAP f/d/b/a ACAP); Military and Veterans organizations; and local/area Economic Developers. Some of the region’s largest private (and public including federal, state, and local government) employers were also consulted. Once the predicted impact of personnel losses on the tri-county region’s various economic and employment sectors/occupations was determined, recommendations were developed and proposed below for each major cluster including healthcare, retail, hospitality, services, real estate, and defense (especially contractor and supporting businesses). Workforce skill sets and strategies to assist and transition military personnel were identified, but additionally, new and/or increased workforce pipelines may need to be developed, including via continuing education and entrepreneurial preparation. One overall goal is to keep businesses and skilled workers in the region as the experience and education represented by these workers could complement other tri-county employers as well. Another objective is to help with sector diversification efforts. To those two ends, the FSU team - working with key stakeholders/partners and collaborative steering committee/s - created a shorter-term roadmap for assistance to affected workers and businesses in this section; and longer -term recommendations to revitalize and further diversify the regional economy and labor market elsewhere in this report. In general, the implementation plan regarding Workforce/Economic Development issues includes the following action items:  Providing coordinated outreach and assistance for all dislocated workers – both military and civilian – and small to medium-sized businesses impacted in order to retain talent, jobs and employers in the region (specifically healthcare, retail, hospitality, services, real estate, and defense)  Bridging any skills gaps jobseekers may face including IT/computer, work readiness, soft/interpersonal, and job finding/getting/holding skills training or retraining/up-skilling (credential stacking/latticing) so they can seek, gain and keep new employment  Fostering entrepreneurism so some displaced workers might become small business owners and existing small firms might continue to prosper  Adjusting, aligning and enhancing regional economic and workforce development strategies, including perhaps diversification, using this new and more accurate data  Developing, attracting new and/or expanding existing businesses across the tri-county area -- perhaps including cluster development  Assisting the growth and expansion of new/existing industry cluster(s) that are less reliant on Federal defense contracts 021417wsa HC BOC Page 59 Impact Greater Fayetteville 46  Developing and launching career information education efforts around key growth industries and their major occupations throughout the regional k-20 and workforce/training system Other challenges that may need to be addressed and overcome include the fact already recognized and published by OEA that the effects of relatively small/er reductions such as those considered here can be masked until the cumulative effects ultimately become visible, necessitating early identification of and assistance to ‘at-risk’ workers, companies and sectors.  This entire effort might also include the need for a coordinated effort to advertise the region as a good place for veterans to live, work and play due to its military friendly communities. Specific Skill Set Analyses The occupational skills (MOS) makeup of the active duty Army service members, and military- civilians, attached to Fort Bragg involved in any reduction-in-force scenario needed to be assessed in order to better ease their potential transition to civilian employment in the tri- county region. The major and most prevalent occupational codes and skill sets were then compared to existing civilian occupations using conversion cross-walks or translators - namely O*Net Online and CareerOneStop. Then these were compared with the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for occupational match- making in key current regional and future growth sectors. For purposes of this study, it has been determined that the five most common military occupational specializations for Fort Bragg’s active military personnel are: Infantryman (11B); Health Care Specialist (68W); Wheeled Vehicle Repairer (63W/91B); Military Police (31B); Combat Engineer (12B); and Food Service Specialist (99B). These occupations match quite closely those identified by a survey used to publish “Military Human Capital Snapshot, Fort Bragg - Fayetteville, NC,” an assessment of the transitioning military workforce at Fort Bragg, in January 2016. This particular military occupational skills mix shows strong correlation with several of the tri- county Fort Bragg region’s largest civilian sectors/occupations, including growing areas in health care, public administration, public safety/homeland security, business management, logistics, and food service occupations. It also shows alignment with the target sectors of defense and security and segments of advanced manufacturing. At any given time, according to NCWorks data, there are approximately 4,000 jobs available in the Fayetteville MSA (again, that includes Cumberland and Hoke counties). In a typical month, there are an average 7,000 job openings advertised online. Both of these counts are relatively unduplicated. Cumberland County usually represents the 5th highest number of job openings so advertised across NC. Concurrently, there are about 14,000 ‘potential candidates’ in any given month in the local MSA. The actual number of unemployed in the MSA is usually at a 1:1 ratio to advertised online job openings. The major jobs at any given time are Truck drivers; Nurses; 021417wsa HC BOC Page 60 Impact Greater Fayetteville 47 Network & computer systems administrators; Computer user support specialists; Retail salespersons and supervisors; Maintenance & repair workers; and Customer service representatives. Again, these occupations match up nicely with those of scenario impacted military/civilian labor and some of the target sectors identified for recruitment . The employers usually with the highest number of job openings advertised online in this MSA are: General Dynamics; CACI; Department of Veterans Affairs; Booz Allen Hamilton; Cape Fear Valley Health System; Army Medical Command; FSU; SENTEL Corporation; Cumberland County and Schools; U.S. Army; Burger King Corporation; Harris Teeter Inc.; ManTech International Corporation; Leidos Holdings, Inc.; Compass Group; and PSA Healthcare. The nature of these employers matches quite closely the occupational skills of the military and civilian workers plus spouses potentially impacted. Furthermore, the most common minimum ed ucation requirement is high school diploma or equivalent; the 2nd most common requirement is a Bachelor of Science degree. Meanwhile, the most common education level of potential candidates (in the NCWorks system) is high school diploma or equivalent, with the 2nd most common level being 1-3 years of college or a technical or vocational school. The most common minimum experience requirement is entry level, with 1-2 years coming in 2nd. However, the most common of potential candidates was over 10 years; and 5-10 years at 2nd place. The average weekly wage for the MSA is approximately $750, or $18.75 an hour or $38,750 annualized full-time. This is ranked 8th in the state. While relatively low, it matches the minimum desired wage of available candidates – with the most common being the $20-$35K range and 2nd being the $35-$50K range. Future Growth Occupations In addition to simply noting and matching current and projected occupational demand with existing labor skill sets, it is also valuable to point out opportunities to provide community college type training and university education for selected high potential skill types, particularly for exiting soldiers and military – civilians who are probably knowledgeable in these areas, and particularly since this has been pointed out in other studies as an opportunity worth building upon to attract companies to locate operations here. Many military -connected personnel also possess valuable security clearances. In order to develop a more highly skilled and educated workforce for the future – more in alignment with sectors and careers inherent in further diversifying the economy more towards STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) disciplines - it is also important to put more emphasis on the potential to develop workforce talent along dimensions that would attract new and/or additional companies to locate here in targeted high paying industries that could leverage defense or other special assets (such as the advanced manufacturing sectors of aerospace, virtual reality simulation, remotely piloted aircraft) in addition to emphasis on preparing excess workforce for where the most jobs are currently (such as retail). 021417wsa HC BOC Page 61 Impact Greater Fayetteville 48 As noted elsewhere, there are already programs for incumbent worker training and education meant to help current employees upgrade their skills. There are also customized training programs offered by NCWorks thru community colleges. As their website states: “The NCWorks Customized Training Program provides education, training and support services for new, expanding and existing business and industry in North Carolina through our network of 58 community colleges, serving all 100 counties of the state. Our goal is to foster and support three key aspects of your company's well-being: Job Growth Technology Investment Productivity Enhancement All solutions are the result of collaboration with the management team and customizing the training to meet specific objectives adding to business success.” A review of the potential sectors targeted and discussed elsewhere in this report includes the following: o Logistics and Warehousing o Defense and Security o Advanced Manufacturing o Business Services A fifth sector of growth not necessarily requiring any additional economic development recruitment efforts is: o Health Care/Life Science On balance, these five sectors require a higher order of knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) leading to equally higher incomes. So at least some of the focus for the tri -county region needs to be placed on preparing new workers for future jobs in the identified sectors for possible potential growth. While there are some jobs in each sector that may only require a high school diploma and/or short to moderate on-the-job training (OJT) or perhaps a certificate, many others will require either longer term OJT and/or college degrees including 2+2 and advanced programs. Several jobs involve technical aspects that are tied into the STEM disciplines; many of these are also tied back to established career pathways in the K-20 education systems.  One area that almost all local employers express a need for is for more customer service, interpersonal and sales skills and training for same. In fact, the Greater Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce is planning to offer a series of classes on such topics for existing employers and their employees. Regional educational institutions would be wise to offer even more education and training in these critical topics as well. The 021417wsa HC BOC Page 62 Impact Greater Fayetteville 49 Chamber is also going to be sponsoring a series of business and education roundtables on a quarterly basis to help identify and meet other skills gaps. Much of this ‘trainsition’ work, of course, also depends on the ability of the tri-county region to attract via economic development efforts more business and industry operating in the five targeted growth sectors. This would need to be done in concert with local workforce development and public and post-secondary education leaders to ensure that their talent development and supply programs and pipelines are aligned and adequate to meet future demand. The number one indicator that corporate site locators use in determining to build, move, or expand operations is the quality and quantity of the local labor force and education/training system needed to produce such qualified workers. One prime local example of an institution of higher learning developing and offering such in - demand and higher level programs is Campbell University in Harnett County. Over the last few years, partly in response to regional labor market needs and projections, they have rolled out new undergraduate programs in nursing, engineering, homeland and cyber-security, and new graduate and professional programs including physical the rapy and osteopathic medicine. Each of these fits one of the target growth sectors identified in this report. And FSU has developed award-winning programs in healthcare and healthcare administration, business, management information systems, and K-12 teaching, and has developed customized project management and cybersecurity graduate level programs for both military personnel and civilians. The university is also strong in preparation for criminal justice-related occupations. BRAC efforts led to the opening of the Center for Defense and Homeland Security housing traini ng academies in cybersecurity, emergency management, and national security. One other local example for community colleges is FTCC’s launch of its cutting -edge Collision Repair and Refinishing Technology curriculum that prepares individuals to apply tech nical knowledge and skills to repair, reconstruct, and finish hi-tech automobile bodies, fenders, and external features. They also have a relatively new simulation and game development curriculum. Finally, the local public school systems – notably Cumberland County’s – have opened four early colleges with two located at FSU. The third, located at FTCC, is called Polytechnic High School and focuses on vocational education mainly in STEM disciplines. In Hoke County, ‘SandHoke’ Early College High School is a partnership between the Hoke County School System and Sandhills Community College. Harnett County may want to explore doing similar. In Harnett County, there are now two apprenticeship programs tied into the public high schools: Computer-Integrated Machining Technology and Welding Technology. These were created by Harnett County Schools, the North Carolina Department of Commerce, Central Carolina Community College, and several local companies. And as success in the local, regional, national or even global economy may require a two-or four-year degree, a certificate or diploma, the Career & College Promise (CCP) allows qualified high-school-age students in North Carolina to have the opportunity to pursue these options, tuition free, while they are in high 021417wsa HC BOC Page 63 Impact Greater Fayetteville 50 school. This allows them to get a jumpstart on their workplace and college preparation. CCP provides three pathways to help advance eligible students’ post-high school success.  To make even more progress in these nascent efforts, a career information education initiative would need to be planned, coordinated and implemented focused on the five future growth sectors presented here plus their major occupations. This would need to include at a minimum the k-12, secondary, and post-secondary education and training institutions as well as regional Workforce Development Board operations and partners including industry. This effort could also help position the region for external grant and other funding opportunities involving career clusters and sector training. This effort would require more robust career, educational and personal advising and counseling in the K-12 system so that middle and high school students could better understand the range of careers available with various levels of required education, training and skills. This recommendation is made in the strategies section.  The tri-county regional education, workforce, and economic development systems would need to be even more aligned with current and future talent needs of targeted industry sectors. Core competencies and industry-specific skills needed for the projected high/er growth and wage occupations in the region would need to be developed. This sector or cluster strategy is an approach that has been adopted all across the country and not just in other mill or ‘mil’ towns seeking diversification.  The regional umbrella leadership group would also need to have an on -going process to continually analyze and update any workforce gap projections for each targeted growth industry in order to keep the talent re-skilled and up-skilled.  More programs in the educational systems that would provide WorkKeys Assessment and Career Readiness Certificates (CRC) will be needed as well. Examples of some specific courses that that currently are offered through regional K- 12 Career Technical Education programs and are directly relevant to the target growth industries include: Drafting, Electronics, Biotechnology, Computer Inte grated Manufacturing, Fundamentals of Technology, Manufacturing, and Transportation Systems. More would need to be developed along with an increased number of apprenticeships and life-long-learning programs. One such initiative already in the works is a multi-county Health Career Pathway that includes Cumberland and Hoke (and Moore, but not Harnett) Counties that is currently waiting for state approval in order to implement. This certified pathway will allow the partnership to develop programs in healthcare careers plus provide additional funds for career awareness programs, work-based learning opportunities, apprenticeships, and job placement with large health care employers. The program was developed over a six-month period through meetings with industry, education, community partners, and government agencies to meet the continually growing demand for medical professionals. There is a continuum of jobs starting with direct 021417wsa HC BOC Page 64 Impact Greater Fayetteville 51 patient care and nursing assistance through to medical assistance and health records IT, and from 2-year to advanced degrees, and each will be addressed.  More of this type of aligned and integrated planning and model implementation will be needed in this region to meet talent needs for other clusters for up to a decade out. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 65 Impact Greater Fayetteville 52 Economic Development Strategy The development of a regional economy can be a daunting task. The investment needed is high; the projects are complex; and many partners are required. However, the Fayetteville region does not have a choice whether or not to invest in economic development. Too much of the economy is reliant on the military and related industries. Military contributions to the economy have declined at the rate of 2-4% per year over the last few years. Like other communities once dependent upon textiles and furniture, the region needs to diversify before there is a significant negative economic event, such as large military reductions. Too many textile communities waited too late to act and are still trying to recover economic losses. A sound economic development strategy is based on assets. Most of the assets of the Fayetteville region (location, transportation, utilities, educational institutions, etc.) will not change with a troop reduction of 3,000 at Fort Bragg. There would be some workforce reduction as military dependents and spouses leave the area; however, the basic economic development and diversification strategy will remain the same. Therefore, the majority of recommendations in this report are focused on enhancing the strategies of the economic development programs through regional collaboration that aligns economic development, workforce development, and education. If there were an immediate loss of 3,000 active duty soldiers and their families, efforts could be launched to recruit peo ple to replace the loss; rather than recruiting companies to provide jobs that will attract people . “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.” – Margaret Mead 021417wsa HC BOC Page 66 Impact Greater Fayetteville 53 Goal: Increased & Connected Economic Development Efforts Basic economic development strategies will not change with a reduction of 1,000, 2,000, or even 3,000 active duty personnel at Fort Bragg. There are fluctuations in troop levels at Fort Bragg regularly. The reasons companies move to and expand in this region will remain the same – location, transportation, educational assets, etc. Thus, one strategy to combat potential negative economic impact is to increase current economic development efforts in the areas of recruitment, retention, and expansion of existing businesses through higher levels of regional collaboration. Strategy: Business Recruitment Economic diversification is needed in the Fayetteville regional economy. The region is highly dependent on public sector jobs (over 50% of non -military wages) even outside of the military. When considering military employment in addition to the public sector, the concentration is significantly higher. Fayetteville’s strategic plan includes a recommendation to diversify the city’s tax base and increase the industrial and commercial tax bases, a goal of each of the counties. The largest private sector employment categories in the region are retail trade and manufacturing. Typically, retail does not pay at or above the average county wage, which manufacturing does. We recommend the region focus on recruiting sectors that will diversify the economy, are growing, and pay at or above the average wage. Each of the local economic development organizations recruits new businesses directly and through the marketing efforts of regional partnerships. Cumberland and Hoke Counties are part of North Carolina’s Southeast Regional Partnership and Harnett County is a member of the Research Triangle Regional Partnership. The targets for recruitment overlap with one regional partnership or the other with the exception of business services. Logistics and warehousing, advanced manufacturing, and defense and security are targets of the Southeast Partnership. Defense and security and some sectors of advanced manufacturing are targets of the Research Triangle Partnership. The business services sector is one target not covered by either regional partnership. Action Steps: In order to be more aggressive in recruiting new business, the counties must act and think regionally.  There is an opportunity for the county economic development offices to launch a specific market effort at the business services industry. For example, the three counties could conduct a sales trip to site consultants that focus on business services (not covered by the regional organizations) and develop information for the business services industry on their websites. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 67 Impact Greater Fayetteville 54  Annually, the three organizations should review their programs of work for alignment, potential areas of collaboration and leverage. It may be possible to come together for marketing purposes as a ‘sub region’ as relates to opportunities and risks associated with Ft Bragg.  The three local economic development offices should meet quarterly to share marketing plans to identify points of leverage. For example, if Cumberland County is participating in a sales trip targeting defense, Harnett County may want to reserve its resources for a sales trip in logistics. This study shows that the Fayetteville region receives less in military contracts than comparable regions. There is an opportunity to attract additional military contractors.  In conjunction with the NC Military Business Center’s work, develop marketing information that shows large and small contractors in the region. Large contractors want to know there is a base of smaller contractors for subcontracting work and smaller contractors want to know there is a group of larger contractors with which to collaborate. We understand this task will be exceedingly difficult given the clandestine nature of many subcontractor businesses. However, leveraging connections with Fort Bragg may help. A unique asset of being a military region is the workfo rce advantage offered by exiting military and trailing spouses. We have found in other studies that military spouses are generally more educated than the population in general.  Quantify and publicize the military spouses available for work. It is estimated that as many as one-third remain in the region and the majority would prefer to stay in the region if adequate employment is available. Studies have also found that generally exiting military and spouses are more educated than the general workforce. Seymour Johnson Air Force Base regularly surveys newcomers to determine if the spouse is seeking employment, skill set, education, etc. A recent survey there found almost 200 spouses actively seeking work. This information is very useful to existing businesses seeking to hire talented workers. Cooperation with Fort Bragg will be critical. Strategy: Business Retention and Expansion Approximately 75% of all new investment and job creation comes from existing businesses. A proactive Business Retention and Expansion (BRE) program offers significant returns to the community. Each local economic development office has a BRE program; however, there is an opportunity to use the regional information in this study to support existing businesses. Action Steps:  Economic Gardening is an economic development strategy developed and deployed in Littleton, CO. The program uses market data to help small businesses grow and entrepreneurs capture opportunities. Other than federal government, the major sectors that are expected to lose employment are limited-service restaurants, full-service 021417wsa HC BOC Page 68 Impact Greater Fayetteville 55 restaurants, real estate sector, office of physicians, general merchandise stores, nursing and community care facilities, food and drinking places, food and beverages stores, and personal care services. These businesses are ideal for an economic gardening program. More information on economic gardening can be found at the Edward Lowe Foundation: http://edwardlowe.org/entrepreneurship-programs/economic-gardening/ We recommend the three-county regional explore a regional economic gardening program.  Proactively visit companies on a regular basis. Develop a target profile of companies for the visitation program. The target profile could include companies in specific target sectors, size, relationship with Fort Bragg, growth trajectory, at-risk, etc. Through the visitation program, gather data that will allow for trends analysis on existing businesses and the economy. Share high level data among offices regarding military contractors, major regional employers, and firms in target sectors.  Create an “at-risk” profile for industry sectors most likely to be impacted by troop reductions (healthcare, retail, hospitality, services, real estate, and defense) so economic development staff can identify companies at-risk of closure. The profile could include reductions in employment, utilities, services, and less community engagement/participation.  Include in the visitation questionnaire a gauge of dependency on the military to start tracking how vulnerable many businesses are to troop reductions.  Continue with business networking through online and social media discussion groups and face-to-face networking at lunch and learn seminars.  Through the visitation survey information, create an advocacy platform to support regulatory change that will help local businesses grow.  As business climate issues are identified, consider regional (three-county) strategies in response, e.g. if training and the talent pipeline is an issue, consider a three-county meeting including higher education in all three counties to hear feedback from employers and work toward improvements Strategy: Product Development Approximately 80% of all expanding companies search for an existing building. In the three county region, there are only 13 available buildings that are over 30,000 SF. Of those 13 buildings, only five have clear ceiling height over 22’ and all five are in Fayetteville. Advanced manufacturing requires higher ceilings than was the norm decades ago when manufacturing was more labor intensive. The fact that the region lacks a quality inventory of available industrial buildings is a glaring gap in the economic development program. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 69 Impact Greater Fayetteville 56 There is a healthy inventory of sites listed with the NC Department of Commerce (44); however, none of the sites is a Certified Site, an indicator of the level of due diligence completed. Action Steps:  Painstakingly inventory available buildings in the three county region. Particular attention should be paid to buildings suitable for the targeted sectors. Consider convening the commercial/industrial real estate community for a discussion of the industrial real estate market and how vacancies align, or do not, with target sectors. Collect information on ‘demand’ for industrial business in the region as you explore public and private options for development.  Explore investment in spec building development. Catawba County has a good model of a public-private partnership spec building development program.  Develop a list of needed enhancements for the top three to five sites in each county. Enhancements could include engineering studies, infrastructure extensions, clearing, etc. Regionally support local investment in site development.  Do not overlook space for small businesses. This study shows they will be the ones most adversely affected by a troop reduction and, therefore, will need the most support. Goal: Increased Connectivity & Collaboration The current and increased economic development efforts will benefit from a higher level of connectivity and collaboration across the region. We heard from the community input sessions that leaders want a higher level of collaboration across the region. Objective II C in Fayetteville’s FY2017-18 strategic plan is to “leverage partnerships for job creation and retention, with a focus on local and regional workforce and increasing per capita income.” We heard clearly from Hoke and Harnett Counties that they need a strong region to be successful. Strategy: Regional Planning and Collaboration Hoke, Harnett, Cumberland, and Fayetteville are married through Fort Bragg and the regional economy; however, often communication is lacking. There are efficiencies to be leveraged through regional collaboration. The City of Fayetteville can lead regional collaboration as the city in the MSA.  One way to increase collaboration is to identify regional projects that can bring people together for a common cause. The key learning from this study is the need for regional alignment of target clusters with education, workforce development, and economic development. o Fayetteville can host a Higher Education Summit to bring together all institutions of higher learning in the region. The agenda would be to discuss the regional strategy 021417wsa HC BOC Page 70 Impact Greater Fayetteville 57 to develop the five target clusters as well as support existing top employment clusters such as health care. o Another point of collaboration should be alignment of capital improvement, comprehensive plans, and infrastructure extensions with target sectors. Strategy: Leadership Development We have found that the main difference between successful and unsuccessful communities is leadership. In order to develop the leadership talent, identify new leaders, and connect leaders across the region, we recommend launching a regional leadership development program. Chambers of commerce, economic development, universities, and local governments are a few of the partners that should be involved. There are good models of leadership programs such as Leadership North Carolina and the Rural Economic Development Institute which trains rural leaders to bring positive change. Action Steps:  Typically, leadership programs recruit a class to meet one day a month for eight months. At each meeting the class focuses on a particular topic such as economic development, history, local government, natural resources, etc.  The leadership program should be self-sustaining through tuition and sponsorships.  Efforts should be made to recruit a balanced class from across geographies, industry sectors, and demographics (race and age).  Often the leadership class each year will take on a community service project. Strategy: Place-Making for the Next Generation Millennials will make up 75% of the workforce by 2025. The economic preferences of that generation is much different than previous generations. Many move to an area before finding a job. This is true in Charleston, SC where approximately 47 people move to every day. Objective II D of Fayetteville’s strategic plan is to “invest in community places, revitalizing downtown, as a focal point and building opportunities to leverage the Cape Fear River.” Harnett County is already drawing many people because of its quality of life. Each community can get behind regional place-making initiatives. Action Steps:  Invest in recreation amenities that not only connect the region but also leverage the natural resources. Examples are greenways, bike paths, scenic driving trails, etc. The new baseball stadium is another example. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 71 Impact Greater Fayetteville 58  Develop policies that encourage public art. For example, there could be a consistent art theme across the region that is carried throughout murals, public sculpture, and signage. In every community engagement meeting in Fayetteville, branding was discussed. Public art is one way to brand a community. Think of the painted pigs in Lexington or the metal sculptures in Greenville as unique markers of the community.  Place-making includes revitalizing areas like downtowns. There are many best practices in downtown revitalization. A few include Columbia, SC’s vacant building revitalization grant; Hickory, NC’s landscaping grant; and Charlotte, NC’s security grant. The downtowns across the region can collaborate on the location of incentive districts that complement a regional place-making initiative. Goal: Invest in Education and Training The deciding site location factor for expanding companies is workforce. The deciding factor for most families relocating is schools. Three of the top ten things that make a community great relate to education: community college, public schools, and a research institution (Conway, Inc. 2015). Investing in educational programs that align with targeted growth sectors will reap wide ranging rewards in economic development, including attracting exiting and retiring military to stay in the region. Strategy: K-14 Education Action Steps:  Implement a program like the Greenwood Promise in Greenwood County, SC. Greenwood County is raising an endowment that will fund enough scholarships to pay for every high school graduate to attend Piedmont Technical College for two years. The community’s expectation then becomes a K-14 education rather than a K-12 education. Similar programs are up and running in Wythe County and the Roanoke Region in Virginia, as well as Laurens County, SC. Greenwood County has plans to continue fundraising to grow the endowment to provide a four-year college education at Lander University. In other communities it has been estimated that scholarships will need to be raised for approximately 35% of the graduating class because a portion will go to four-year schools, a portion will receive scholarships, and a portion will not participate. A regional fundraising effort could be the catalyst to fund an endowment that will provide for the scholarships. Such a regional fundraising effort is now being considered by the Freshwater Coast Foundation in Abbeville, SC. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 72 Impact Greater Fayetteville 59 A program such as this will encourage military families to stay in the area after exiting because of the benefit of a college education for their children. This study found that more than half prefer to stay in the community.  Many communities across North Carolina have started early colleges which allow students to be dual enrolled in high school and community college. Students earn college credits while completing their high school requirements. Cumberland and Hoke Counties have early college programs. Harnett County should explore the program as a way to support education and workforce development. Strategy: Workforce Development Action Steps:  Implement a careers initiative for the five target sectors for recruitment (logistics and warehousing, defense and security, advanced manufacturing, and business services). Include K-12, secondary, and post-secondary education and training institutions as well as regional Workforce Development Board operations and partners including industry. A good example is the distribution training program in York County, SC. While learning about logistics, students apply their training to pack and distribute backpacks of food that are sent home with students on the weekends.  Develop career awareness information for each of the five target sectors. We have found from other studies that marketing information for careers should contain: o Information on types of jobs, skills, wages, and education requirements. o Students like to see images of people like them in the work setting. o Parents want to know wage, skills, and where you go to get training/education. o Military will want to know how their occupational code and training align with the sectors. This is a good example of an award-winning career awareness video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRHwDmpb4Q&t=134s. It was created by the Henderson County Partnership for Economic Development, NC.  Harnett County’s best practice model of increasing apprenticeship programs can be expanded to Cumberland and Hoke Counties.  One area that almost all local employers express a need for is for more customer service, interpersonal, and sales skills training. The Greater Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce is offering a series of classes on such topics for existing employers and their employees. We recommend that community college and university programs integrate 021417wsa HC BOC Page 73 Impact Greater Fayetteville 60 this training into all curriculums that support the target clusters as well as the major employment cluster of health care.  We have found in other studies that as many as 15% of employers require a Career Readiness Certificate while less than 7% of military spouses or exiting military have one. We recommend increased marketing of the WorkKeys Assessment and Career Readiness Certificates (CRC). Through the community college system, the assessment is free to military and military dependents. Goal: Support Entrepreneurship Eighty-two percent of establishments in the Fayetteville MSA employ less than ten people. Sole proprietorships make up 12.6% of all establishments (YourEconomy.Org). Small business is big business. Entrepreneurship is a pathway for many exiting and retiring military as well as others looking to serve the military. Military accounts for approximately 31% of the total value of goods and services produced in the Fayetteville MSA; thus, there are excellent opportunities for small businesses to leverage that level of economic activity. Strategy: Increase Access to Regional Capital Action Steps:  It is estimated that as many as one-third of exiting military remain in the area. Surveys indicate that even more transitioning veterans (55%) would remain in the region if suitable employment were available. Self-employment is one alternative to traditional employment. Many of the military subcontractors in the region are former military. We recommend to include entrepreneurship information in the TAP program. Information can include a listing of agencies and programs that support entrepreneurs.  Create a regional small business loan pool. Revolving loan funds are often the seed capital needed by entrepreneurs. Loan programs in nearby Lee County were started with a USDA Rural Development Grant.  A regional angel investing network could be as informal as a database of high net worth individuals willing to invest in local companies to a formal program like Invest Local managed by Mountain BizWorks. The three county region could pool dollars from local investors into a loan fund for small businesses.  Every business, no matter how small needs physical space. There has been a surge in co- work space in the urban areas, and some not-so-urban areas, of the state. HQ Raleigh is a good example of a co-work space that provides entrepreneurs with synergies. Given the opportunity for exiting military to become entrepreneurs, we recommend the region collaborate on space for small businesses. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 74 Impact Greater Fayetteville 61 Whereas the recommendations above focus on traditional economic development strategies, the following are outside-of-the-box. If Fort Bragg reduced active duty troops by 3,000 immediately and at one time, there could be a loss of as many as 6,000 consumers in the marketplace. If the region wanted to be aggressive at recruiting people, instead of recruiting jobs for the people to follow, these are a few inventive approaches. Goal: Replace 6,000 People The loss of 3,000 active duty soldiers may mean the loss of 6,000 people to the population and economy of the region. The loss could come in one snapshot of time. Almost 80% of military personnel reside in Cumberland County; thus, the impact will be felt the strongest in that county. Recruiting companies to provide jobs which will attract more people to move to the region is a long-term strategy. If the region is serious about recruiting people in the short-term, it has to think outside-the-box. Strategy: Recruit People to the Region Action Steps:  There are examples of communities providing rent subsidies for entrepreneurs/small business owners and free land to people who will build a home. These radical ideas focus on bringing people to the community with the thinking that companies and growth will follow people. This can be true - retail sectors follow demographic and consumer patterns. There are several places in the U.S. that offer incentives for people to move there: • Harmony, MN: cash rebates for new home construction • New Haven, CT: down payment assistance, loans for home renovation, free in- state college tuition • Niagara Falls, NY: student loan reimbursement • Detroit, MI: cash and loans for renters and new homeowners • Kansas: tax waivers and student loan reimbursement • Alaska: annual mineral royalty dividends for all residents • Curtis, NB: free lot on which to build your new home  There are other examples of communities supporting newcomers, especially refugees, with relocation packages that include housing assistance, workforce training, and job placement. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 75 Impact Greater Fayetteville 62  In North Carolina, the City of Morganton has offered low interest loans to developers of residential housing for active adults. In this case, the incentive is directed to the developer. Goal: Adaptive Reuse of Space and Capacity If 3,000 active duty positions are eliminated at Fort Bragg, there may be an inventory of vacant houses and classrooms. It is likely that the vacancy will be spread across all four jurisdictions rather than whole neighborhoods becoming vacant . Strategy: Use Vacated Residential and Institutional Space Action Steps:  The region should inventory “at-risk” residential and industrial space so that in the case of a major reduction at Fort Bragg, policies can easily target areas for redevelopment. • Vacant school space could be repurposed for community college training or university training. • Vacant housing could be repurposed to support university housing needs of students and professors. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 76 Impact Greater Fayetteville 63 Implementation Plan To be written following community feedback. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 77 Impact Greater Fayetteville 64 Appendix A: Steering Committee Members and Consulting Team Steering Committee Members Rodney Anderson Retired General Tamara Bryant Fayetteville Technical Community College Letitia Edens Hoke County TJ Haney NC Community College System Chris Hawk Harnett County Angie Hedgepeth Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors Tracy Jackson Cumberland County Mark Locklear Harnett County Adrian Lowery Lumber River Council of Governments Zan Monroe Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors Greg Moore Fayetteville Technical Community College Monika Morris Fayetteville Technical Community College James Palenick City of Fayetteville Brandon Plotnick Fayetteville Alliance Don Porter Hoke County Robert Rehder Fayetteville State University Darsweil Rogers Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce Patricia Tyson City of Fayetteville Teddy Warner Economic Development Partnership of NC Consulting Team Members: o Crystal Morphis, Creative Economic Development Consulting o Penny Whiteheart, Creative Economic Development Consulting o Dr. Pamela Jackson, Fayetteville State University o Dr. Inder Nijhawan, Fayetteville State University o Gregory McElveen, Fayetteville State University o Tim Moore, Fayetteville State University o Dr. Thomas Williams, Fayetteville State University 021417wsa HC BOC Page 78 Impact Greater Fayetteville 65 Appendix B: Economic Profile Background Data This section provides economic background data for Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke counties and key municipalities within those counties. A summary of the region’s economic data is provided along with the potential implications for a personnel reduction at Ft Bragg. The information includes economic output data; population size and composition; employment levels; educational attainment of the workforce; income levels; veteran presenc e in the population and their characteristics; and the housing stock. The information is presented under three categories, namely: 1. Fayetteville MSA Economic Output – Real GDP is the measure of economic output used and shows pattern over time and provide comparison to highlight the significance of the military to the region. 2. County Economic Data – The various data presented provide some basis for identifying potential strengths and weaknesses relative to any economic shock related to a personnel cut. 3. Cities and Town Economic Data – This data is similar to that provided for the counties but presents a view that may be of more interest to the city officials involved with economic development. Real GDP Data (Bureau of Economic Analysis is the source of data on Real GDP and Real Per Capita GDP. Source of all other data is U.S. Census Bureau) Area Profile (Economic Landscape) In an attempt to fully explore the probable impact of personnel draw down at Ft Bragg on the three- county area, we compiled a regional profile that offers the best opportunity to identify potentially measureable effects for a diverse set of stakeholders. For this reason, information is presented for the Fayetteville MSA, the three counties, and the major towns within these counties that are mostly likely to experience a direct impact. Fayetteville MSA – Economic Output As a first step, the regional economic output (GDP) is best analyzed at the MSA level, therefore, we focus on the Fayetteville MSA that covers the Fort Bragg area. The significance of the military to the area is demonstrated by the fact that the federal military component of the national MSA GDP is less than two percent, approximately 2.5 percent for North Carolina, but averages over 30 percent for the Fayetteville MSA during the 12 years ending in 2013. The latest figures available at the time of this report showed the military contribution to the Fayetteville MSA Real GDP at 32.4 percent. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 79 Impact Greater Fayetteville 66 Fayetteville MSA Real GDP – Federal Military Contribution Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 data) While the military component of Real GDP as a percentage of total Real GDP for both the national MSA and North Carolina showed moderate fluctuation, the comparable figures for the Fayetteville MSA was a gradual increase. The military contribution to the area grew gradually from 30 percent in 2001 to peak at 34 percent in 2010 before beginning a downward trend. This downward trend is also seen at both the national and statewide level. 32% 68% Fayetteville MSA Real GDP Federal military Non-military 021417wsa HC BOC Page 80 Impact Greater Fayetteville 67 Fayetteville MSA Real GDP Trend Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Per Capita Real GDP Looking at the real output on a per capita basis provides a more in depth picture of the economic significance of the military on the area. In doing so, we compare the per capita real GDP for the Fayetteville MSA to that North Carolina, and the U.S. The contrasting picture that emerged in the comparison of the military component of real GDP, is even more profound when we examine the per capita real GDP at the three levels. Per capita real GDP peeked earlier at both the national and state level before doing so for Fayetteville MSA at $45,506 in 2010. It is also worth noting that even as the real per capita GDP decline began in 2007 as the national economy began to contract, the per capital real GDP continued to grow within the Fayetteville MSA and only started to show decline later, that appears more in line with a reduction in war fighting effort. 27.0% 28.0% 29.0% 30.0% 31.0% 32.0% 33.0% 34.0% 35.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Federal Military Contribution to Fayetteville (MSA) Real GDP 021417wsa HC BOC Page 81 Impact Greater Fayetteville 68 Per Capital Real GDP for Fayetteville MSA relative to the US and North Carolina. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real GDP Growth Rate An examination of the actual growth rate in real GDP presents a picture, which reinforces that derived from the per capita real GDP figures. The most revealing information is the dichotomy in the growth rates for 2009, with Fayetteville MSA reported at 4.5% while both North Carolina and U.S. were negative; -3% and -2.8% respectively. The divergence has continued since, now in the reverse, with Fayetteville MSA recording the negative growth beginning in 2012 while North Carolina and the U.S. are in positive territory as the economy rebounded. This evidence is indicative of the relative importance of the military within the Fayetteville MSA compared to the State of North Carolina and the U.S. as a whole. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 35000 37000 39000 41000 43000 45000 47000 49000 51000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Per Capita Real GDP United States North Carolina Fayetteville -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP Growth Rate US North Carolina Fayetteville MSA 021417wsa HC BOC Page 82 Impact Greater Fayetteville 69 Counties Population A broader representation of the economic profile of the area is best presented at the county level, with some further delineation reserved for the major towns in the counties. Cumberland County accounts for 65.4 percent, Harnett County, 24.6 percent, and Hoke 10 percent of the total population of the 496,000. Females account for just over half of the population, a pattern that holds true also for the state, and the nation as a whole. The region has a somewhat younger population, as reflected in the median ages, than both the state and nation. Both Cumberland and Hoke counties have a substantially larger proportion of non-white population than the state and the country. Due primarily to the large number of African Americans. The Hispanic presence with the region, though lower than the national proportion is higher than the state. The variations in both the age and ethnic composition of the region’s population are worthy of consideration by policy makers. Ostensibly due to the location of Fort Bragg, both active armed forces personnel and veterans are major component of the region’s population, which provides an additional perspective from which to examine the population. Just over 70 percent of the armed forces personnel at Ft Bragg are reported as residents within the three-county region. The overwhelming majority (78 percent) of these reside in Cumberland County. Clearly this high concentration of military personnel is unique only to communities in which military installations are located. Veterans account for a much higher proportion of the population within the three-county region, than it is for both North Carolina and the US. Veterans represent between 13.5% and 19.9% of the population within the region, but only 9.6% for North Carolina and 8.7% for the U.S. Combine this characteristic with the fact that on average veterans have higher median income, higher level of education attainment, and experience a lower rate of employment than the non-veteran civilian population, retaining retiring soldiers could be a plus for these counties. Income Across the board the region experiences lower income than the state, which itself trails the nation on this metric. The differences are more pronounced on a per capita basis. The more recently available data does not bode well for this picture as weekly wages for the region currently lags the state1. 1 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Q2 2016 data shows the region trailing the state by a weekly wage gap of between $115 and $252; with Cumberland County experiencing a 1.3% decline from the prior year. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 83 Impact Greater Fayetteville 70 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Employment The region experiences higher levels of unemployment consistent with difference in the demographics and composition of the regional economy. A review of the employment situation, with respect to type of occupation and sector of the economy can still be instructive. The pattern of employment across the five classes of occupation varies slightly among the three counties; what stands out most glaringly is the relative weakness of employment in management, business, and science, relative to the state and the country. As a proportion of total employment the $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Median Household Income US North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Per Capita Income US North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County 021417wsa HC BOC Page 84 Impact Greater Fayetteville 71 31% 19%24% 13% 13% Harnett County Management, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupations Sales and office occupations counties trail the state by three to seven percentages points and the nation by four to eight percentage points. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Employment within the three counties like the nation is dominated by private sector work, however the proportion of private sector jobs in markedly lower by between six and ten percentage points. The gap in private sector employment is filled by government jobs, which account for between 21 and 27 percent of the employment across the region. The comparable figures for the state and the nature is approximately 15 percent for government employment. 33% 21% 25% 9% 12% Cumberland County Management, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupations Sales and office occupations 29% 21%23% 12% 15% Hoke County Management, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupations Sales and office occupations 021417wsa HC BOC Page 85 Impact Greater Fayetteville 72 Lower levels of employment in higher wage occupations and the prevalence of government work within the region are two takeaways for this information that should attract attention. Education The level of educational attainment of a workforce, a well-established determinant of employability and earnings, is a major component of the economic profile of any region. The region lags both the state and nation on the proportion of its labor force that have attained at least some college education. However, the component that pops out are those workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher, where the region is behind the state by between 25 and 58 percent and the nation by between 31 and 66 percent. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12% 27% 39% 22% Civilian Population 25 Years and Over - Cumberland County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree 16% 32%34% 18% Civilian Population 25 Years and Over -Harnett County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree 17% 29%37% 18% Civilian Population 25 Years and Over -Hoke County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree 021417wsa HC BOC Page 86 Impact Greater Fayetteville 73 The significance of the veteran community in this region is even more pronounce when the focus is shifted to the working population, 25 years and older. Of the 179,999 civilians 25 years and over that reside in Cumberland County, 40,192 or 22.3 percent are veterans. Sixty-one percent of these Cumberland County civilians have some college or associate’s degree and higher, with 22 percent holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. However, for the veteran population within the county, the comparable figures are 77 percent with some college or associate degrees and higher, and 27 percent for bachelor’s degree or higher. A similar pattern in the higher education standing among the veteran population is observed for the other two counties; Harnett County with 52 percent and 18 percent for the overall civilian population, but 68 percent and 22 percent for the veteran population; and Hoke County 55 percent and 18 percent for the civilian population, and 77 percent and 27 percent for the veteran population. Note that veterans comprise 15.5 percent of the civilian population 25 years and over in Harnett County and 16.2 percent in Hoke County. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau 3%20% 50% 27% Veterans -Cumberland County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree 5% 27% 46% 22% Veterans -Harnett County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 4% 19% 50% 27% Veterans -Hoke County Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 021417wsa HC BOC Page 87 Impact Greater Fayetteville 74 Housing The housing stock and its characteristics also an important component of profile of the region. Except for Cumberland County the distribution of the housing stock across the region is comparable with the state and the nation, with respect to tenure status, which hovers above 64 percent. The proportion of owner occupied units for Cumberland County in only 54 percent2. The overall vacancy rates are also similar; however, rental vacancy rates tend to be slightly higher for the region relative to the country as a whole. The proportion of units with a mortgage is also higher for the region as a whole. Housing values as measured by median values are substantial higher outside of the region, ranging between 22 and 37 percent at the national level, between 8 and 19 percent at the state level. The lower median housing unit values within the region is reflected by over 50 percent of the units valued at less $150,000, while the opposite is true for both the state and nation as whole for which it is 48 and 41 percent respectively. Businesses Approximately 3.5 percent of the North Carolina’s businesses are located within the three counties, with Cumberland County serving as home to 74 percent of these. The earnings of workers within the counties are somewhat lower the proportion of business and employees, which is indicative of lower wages. This pattern remained stable over the 2010-14 period. Cumberland County’s continued primacy in terms of number of business enterprises is also reflected in the number of employees and payroll, with some slight advantage. The adverse changes over the five-year period are the decline in number of business in Cumberland and Hoke counties along with associated drop in employment; Hoke County’s employment decrease by 9.5 percent. Only Hoke recorded a decline in payroll. For Cumberland County, the construction and manufacturing sectors suffered the largest percentage declines in number of businesses but the corresponding payroll losses was smaller. These and other major payroll declines in finance and insurance, and management companies were offset by payroll increases at health care and social assistance, educational services, accommodation and food services, and transportation and warehousing businesses. The unfavorable situation reported for Hoke is driven by manufacturing, which suffered an 8 % drop in the number of business, 39 percent drop in employees, and over 30 percent drop in payroll. The experience of Hoke County would have been more severe except for some positive movement in the payroll situation in health care and social assistance, and the retail trade. 2 The relatively large number of armed forces personnel who reside in Cumberland County, may in fact be a contributing factor, since the reported armed forces owner-occupied proportion is around 50 percent, which is much lower than the national average. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 88 Impact Greater Fayetteville 75 County Business Patterns - 2014 Number of establishments Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number) First-quarter payroll ($1,000) Annual payroll ($1,000) North Carolina 219,897 3,560,448 40,008,913 155,372,284 Cumberland County 5,689 92,537 741,621 3,079,679 Harnett County 1,609 19,249 138,484 582,528 Hoke County 417 5,015 30,048 126,724 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Major Towns Of the five major towns within the region, three are in Cumberland County, and one each in Harnett and Hoke counties. The major towns are Fayetteville, Hope Mills, Lillington, Raeford, and Spring Lake. Fayetteville is far larger than the other towns in terms of both the population and economy, features which in turn affect a number of other aspects of a community. The population of Fayetteville far exceeds the combined population of the other four towns combined. Household income at the state level exceeds that of all the towns except for Hope Mills. On a per capita income basis, the state leads all five towns by at least seven percent but exceeds Lillington, which has experienced a decline in per capita income over the past five years, by a whopping 98 percent. Source: U.S. Census Bureau $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Fayetteville, NC Hope Mills, NC Lillington, NC Raeford, NC Spring Lake, NC North Carolina Median Household Income 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 021417wsa HC BOC Page 89 Impact Greater Fayetteville 76 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Selected Economic Data Counties Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010-2014 United States North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Total population 314,107,084 9,750,405 324,002 121,789 50,034 Male 154,515,159 4,750,366 157,667 59,921 24,456 Female 159,591,925 5,000,039 166,335 61,868 25,578 Median age (years) 37.4 37.8 31.0 33.4 31.1 White alone 62.8% 64.6% 46.1% 63.4% 41.0% Black or African American alone 12.2% 21.2% 35.3% 20.4% 32.3% Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 16.9% 8.7% 10.4% 11.4% 12.4% Asian alone 4.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 8.0% Other races alone 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Two or more races 2.1% 1.9% 4.3% 2.7% 4.6% EMPLOYMENT STATUS Population 16 years and over 248,775,628 7,717,630 247,401 91,521 36,653 In labor force 158,965,511 4,879,118 162,166 56,119 22,634 Civilian labor force 157,940,014 4,793,358 135,172 51,665 19,504 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 Fayetteville, NC Hope Mills, NC Lillington, NC Raeford, NC Spring Lake, NC North Carolina Per Capita Income 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 021417wsa HC BOC Page 90 Impact Greater Fayetteville 77 Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010-2014 United States North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Employed 143,435,233 4,287,690 117,557 45,298 16,862 Unemployed 14,504,781 505,668 17,615 6,367 2,642 Armed Forces 1,025,497 85,760 26,994 4,454 3,130 Not in labor force 89,810,117 2,838,512 85,235 35,402 14,019 Civilian labor force 157,940,014 4,793,358 135,172 51,665 19,504 Percent Unemployed 9.2% 10.5% 13.0% 12.3% 13.5% Mean family income (dollars) 86,963 75,892 65,716 63,968 59,021 Median family income (dollars) 65,443 57,328 52,106 53,089 53,102 Per capita income (dollars) 28,555 25,608 23,204 20,274 19,036 Median household income (dollars) 53,482 46,693 44,778 44,417 43,754 Mean household income (dollars) 74,596 64,555 58,139 56,723 54,760 Median earnings for workers (dollars) 30,815 28,159 28,591 27,643 26,915 Median earnings for male full-time, year-round workers (dollars) 49,400 43,437 40,371 43,547 43,323 Median earnings for female full-time, year-round workers (dollars) 39,087 35,472 32,736 32,334 31,807 OCCUPATION BY CLASS OF WORKER Civilian employed population 16 years and over 143,435,233 4,287,690 117,557 45,298 16,862 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 52,234,574 1,541,258 39,027 14,125 4,968 Service occupations 26,053,338 758,433 24,122 8,433 3,503 Sales and office occupations 34,935,133 1,016,981 29,512 10,948 3,923 Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 12,875,934 403,182 10,605 5,725 1,941 Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 17,336,254 567,836 14,291 6,067 2,527 INDUSTRY Civilian employed population 16 years and over 143,435,233 4,287,690 117,557 45,298 16,862 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 2,807,292 59,781 645 679 345 Construction 8,843,718 284,986 6,702 4,201 949 Manufacturing 14,955,235 535,084 9,051 4,884 2,415 Wholesale trade 3,937,598 118,706 1,686 1,365 254 Retail trade 16,598,718 506,433 15,848 5,316 1,932 Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7,066,666 184,221 4,954 1,810 417 Information 3,064,078 77,183 1,904 605 267 Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 9,467,555 268,732 4,766 2,027 366 021417wsa HC BOC Page 91 Impact Greater Fayetteville 78 Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010-2014 United States North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 15,618,627 431,640 9,005 3,927 998 Educational services, and health care and social assistance 33,297,237 1,011,582 32,578 10,374 4,650 Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 13,610,162 402,861 12,520 3,745 1,515 Other services, except public administration 7,112,579 211,390 5,780 2,159 920 Public administration 7,055,768 195,091 12,118 4,206 1,834 CLASS OF WORKER (SECTOR) Civilian employed population 16 years and over 143,435,233 4,287,690 117,557 45,298 16,862 Private wage and salary workers 79.1% 78.9% 69.0% 72.8% 70.7% Government workers 14.6% 15.2% 26.6% 20.7% 24.3% Self-employed in own not incorporated business workers 6.1% 5.8% 4.3% 6.2% 4.9% Unpaid family workers 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% OCCUPATION BY CLASS OF WORKER Civilian employed population 16 years and over 143,435,233 4,287,690 117,557 45,298 16,862 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 36.4% 35.9% 33.2% 31.2% 29.5% Service occupations 18.2% 17.7% 20.5% 18.6% 20.8% Sales and office occupations 24.4% 23.7% 25.1% 24.2% 23.3% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 9.0% 9.4% 9.0% 12.6% 11.5% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 12.1% 13.2% 12.2% 13.4% 15.0% Educational attainment of population 25 years and older 208,423,578 6,444,551 179,999 71,979 27,906 Less than high school 13.7% 14.7% 11.6% 16.1% 17.3% High school graduate 28.0% 26.9% 27.4% 31.6% 28.5% Some college, associate 29.0% 30.6% 38.7% 34.4% 36.6% Bachelor’s degree or higher 29.3% 27.8% 22.3% 17.8% 17.6% Veterans 20,389,113 695,129 40,192 11,175 4,511 Less than high school 7.4% 7.3% 3.2% 5.0% 4.6% High school graduate 29.3% 27.7% 19.7% 26.6% 18.6% Some college, associate 36.6% 39.2% 49.9% 46.3% 50.1% Bachelor’s degree or higher 26.6% 25.8% 27.2% 22.1% 26.6% Nonveterans 188,034,465 5,749,422 139,807 60,804 23,395 Less than high school 14.4% 15.6% 14.0% 18.2% 19.8% High school graduate 27.9% 26.8% 29.6% 32.5% 30.4% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 92 Impact Greater Fayetteville 79 Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010-2014 United States North Carolina Cumberland County Harnett County Hoke County Some college, associate 28.2% 29.5% 35.5% 32.2% 34.0% Bachelor’s degree or higher 29.5% 28.0% 20.9% 17.0% 15.9% HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 132,741,033 4,385,668 140,410 48,122 19,147 Occupied housing units 116,211,092 3,742,514 122,288 41,601 16,534 Vacant housing units 16,529,941 643,154 18,122 6,521 2,613 Homeowner vacancy rate 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.5 3.8 Rental vacancy rate 6.9 8.2 8.8 8.7 9.2 HOUSING TENURE Occupied housing units 116,211,092 3,742,514 122,288 41,601 16,534 Owner-occupied 74,787,460 2,461,741 53.7% 66.1% 66.6% Renter-occupied 41,423,632 1,280,773 46.3% 33.9% 33.4% VALUE Owner-occupied units 74,787,460 2,461,741 65,642 27,488 11,010 Less than $50,000 9.3% 10.2% 9.1% 13.0% 13.2% $50,000 to $99,999 15.6% 18.0% 24.9% 21.8% 19.4% $100,000 to $149,999 16.0% 20.3% 24.8% 22.1% 19.8% $150,000 to $199,999 15.1% 17.5% 18.0% 18.4% 27.8% $200,000 to $299,999 18.2% 17.5% 15.2% 16.2% 14.9% $300,000 to $499,999 15.5% 11.3% 6.2% 6.4% 4.6% $500,000 to $999,999 8.2% 4.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% $1,000,000 or more 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Median (dollars) 175,700 153,600 128,600 133,400 143,500 MORTGAGE STATUS Owner-occupied units 74,787,460 2,461,741 65,642 27,488 11,010 Housing units with a mortgage 65.6% 66.1% 70.7% 68.0% 72.3% Housing units without a mortgage 34.4% 33.9% 29.3% 32.0% 27.7% Source: US Census Bureau 021417wsa HC BOC Page 93 Impact Greater Fayetteville 80 County Business Pattern North Carolina Number of establishments Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number) First-quarter payroll ($1,000) Annual payroll ($1,000) Total for all sectors 219,897 3,560,448 40,008,913 155,372,284 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 790 4,671 41,709 174,888 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 206 3,233 39,158 167,300 Utilities 562 19,494 558,591 1,818,309 Construction 21,086 167,929 1,667,398 7,528,882 Manufacturing 8,721 408,132 4,810,536 19,609,960 Wholesale trade 11,674 174,694 3,306,229 11,877,850 Retail trade 34,246 469,243 2,773,634 11,547,754 Transportation and warehousing 5,509 113,804 1,204,170 4,964,460 Information 3,469 80,535 1,524,539 5,687,425 Finance and insurance 13,085 172,319 5,119,189 14,506,552 Real estate and rental and leasing 10,618 51,023 519,652 2,172,662 Professional, scientific, and technical services 23,413 203,500 3,468,905 14,318,796 Management of companies and enterprises 1,781 92,537 2,880,292 9,622,942 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 12,281 355,469 2,782,217 12,030,004 Educational services 2,671 94,867 912,468 3,792,715 Health care and social assistance 23,053 560,309 5,742,940 24,055,763 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 3,576 60,055 398,066 1,762,635 Accommodation and food services 19,923 379,757 1,337,353 5,874,571 Other services (except public administration) 22,796 148,355 919,881 3,849,416 Industries not classified 437 f 1,986 9,400 021417wsa HC BOC Page 94 Impact Greater Fayetteville 81 Cumberland County Number of establishments Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number) First-quarter payroll ($1,000) Annual payroll ($1,000) Total for all sectors 5,689 92,537 741,621 3,079,679 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 8 c D D Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 5 b D D Utilities 10 302 4,660 20,814 Construction 432 3,455 30,782 137,404 Manufacturing 95 6,834 79,938 338,814 Wholesale trade 160 2,302 22,247 90,567 Retail trade 1,069 16,603 96,324 396,238 Transportation and warehousing 152 3,776 38,519 158,345 Information 62 1,741 17,719 69,197 Finance and insurance 306 1,928 24,480 88,589 Real estate and rental and leasing 323 1,748 16,230 61,194 Professional, scientific, and technical services 575 5,073 67,506 284,420 Management of companies and enterprises 31 303 5,777 29,190 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 249 7,247 44,947 185,612 Educational services 69 2,318 14,239 59,879 Health care and social assistance 772 19,268 204,123 842,677 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 66 972 3,232 14,082 Accommodation and food services 652 13,871 45,458 193,529 Other services (except public administration) 645 4,662 24,575 105,196 Industries not classified 8 a 13 122 021417wsa HC BOC Page 95 Impact Greater Fayetteville 82 Harnett County Number of establishments Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number) First-quarter payroll ($1,000) Annual payroll ($1,000) Total for all sectors 1,609 19,249 138,484 582,528 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 6 a D D Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 4 e D D Utilities 2 b D D Construction 233 1,289 9,816 45,327 Manufacturing 60 1,330 12,010 53,245 Wholesale trade 56 500 4,839 18,957 Retail trade 273 3,242 17,145 71,574 Transportation and warehousing 39 1,109 10,724 44,889 Information 14 c D D Finance and insurance 89 568 6,606 25,212 Real estate and rental and leasing 76 251 1,391 5,828 Professional, scientific, and technical services 109 433 3,915 18,851 Management of companies and enterprises 5 c 731 4,823 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 96 918 5,796 26,088 Educational services 24 g D D Health care and social assistance 169 3,757 30,242 117,420 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 16 79 362 1,612 Accommodation and food services 157 2,690 7,224 30,358 Other services (except public administration) 177 788 3,999 16,990 Industries not classified 4 a S 43 021417wsa HC BOC Page 96 Impact Greater Fayetteville 83 Hoke County Number of establishments Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number) First-quarter payroll ($1,000) Annual payroll ($1,000) Total for all sectors 417 5,015 30,048 126,724 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 2 a D D Utilities 3 a D D Construction 38 258 1,995 8,482 Manufacturing 11 1,436 11,148 45,093 Wholesale trade 10 94 814 3,996 Retail trade 79 819 4,410 18,813 Transportation and warehousing 15 c D D Information 5 b D D Finance and insurance 16 75 701 2,475 Real estate and rental and leasing 22 46 295 1,145 Professional, scientific, and technical services 38 c 702 3,046 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 21 110 287 1,188 Educational services 5 b D D Health care and social assistance 65 1,092 6,105 27,808 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 6 20 80 320 Accommodation and food services 24 481 1,120 5,067 Other services (except public administration) 56 248 992 3,826 Industries not classified 1 a D D Source: US Census Bureau 021417wsa HC BOC Page 97 Impact Greater Fayetteville 84 Industry Employment by Town Fayetteville Total Managemen t, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupa tions Sales and office occupatio ns Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 34.5% 21.2% 25.8% 7.9% 10.7% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 208 20.2% 0.0% 5.8% 58.7% 15.4% Construction 3,294 15.1% 0.6% 9.8% 71.1% 3.4% Manufacturing 4,579 13.4% 2.7% 9.0% 9.2% 65.7% Wholesale trade 897 21.4% 1.0% 47.7% 5.1% 24.7% Retail trade 9,591 6.0% 5.1% 75.6% 3.9% 9.3% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 2,473 7.8% 2.8% 31.9% 6.4% 51.2% Information 1,089 32.0% 2.8% 45.0% 18.2% 2.0% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 2,949 33.1% 4.8% 53.2% 4.4% 4.5% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 5,209 45.2% 22.3% 21.2% 3.8% 7.5% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 20,178 65.5% 22.0% 9.9% 0.5% 2.0% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8,503 15.2% 62.1% 18.1% 0.3% 4.4% Other services, except public administration 3,659 19.5% 38.3% 14.2% 17.7% 10.4% Public administration 8,101 41.8% 22.4% 22.2% 9.9% 3.7% Hope Mills Total Manageme nt, business, science, and arts occupation s Servic e occup ations Sales and office occupati ons Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Civilian employed population 16 years and over 6,027 32.2% 19.3% 26.7% 7.4% 14.4% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0 - - - - - Construction 240 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.6% 5.4% Manufacturing 520 4.6% 3.8% 19.6% 10.6% 61.3% Wholesale trade 135 0% 8.9% 43.0% 0.0% 48.1% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 98 Impact Greater Fayetteville 85 Retail trade 780 8.1% 3.5% 70.4% 4.9% 13.2% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 280 0.0% 0.0% 35.0% 0.0% 65.0% Information 64 0.0% 10.9% 67.2% 21.9% 0.0% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 252 38.1% 10.7% 51.2% 0.0% 0.0% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 420 14.8% 20.2% 36.7% 14.8% 13.6% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 1,629 70.6% 16.9% 9.1% 1.5% 1.9% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 723 23.0% 53.0% 17.2% 0.0% 6.9% Other services, except public administration 359 17.5% 46.0% 15.3% 13.6% 7.5% Public administration 625 42.9% 25.6% 24.3% 3.7% 3.5% Lillington Total Manageme nt, business, science, and arts occupation s Servic e occup ations Sales and office occupati ons Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Civilian employed population 16 years and over 836 34.1% 23.3% 19.7% 3.8% 19.0% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 16 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction 37 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.7% 43.2% Manufacturing 88 11.4% 0.0% 14.8% 13.6% 60.2% Wholesale trade 24 37.5% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 45.8% Retail trade 76 2.6% 0.0% 73.7% 0.0% 23.7% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 33 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 9.1% 24.2% Information 18 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 61.1% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 26 19.2% 0.0% 80.8% 0.0% 0.0% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 76 51.3% 28.9% 15.8% 3.9% 0.0% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 276 44.9% 43.1% 2.9% 0.0% 9.1% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 99 Impact Greater Fayetteville 86 Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 61 27.9% 60.7% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Other services, except public administration 37 10.8% 29.7% 13.5% 0.0% 45.9% Public administration 68 50.0% 8.8% 41.2% 0.0% 0.0% Raeford Total Manageme nt, business, science, and arts occupation s Servic e occup ations Sales and office occupati ons Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,630 29.0% 22.9% 24.4% 8.2% 15.5% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0 0.0% - - - - Construction 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Manufacturing 339 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 66.4% Wholesale trade 0 - - - - - Retail trade 223 0.0% 0.0% 87.4% 0.0% 12.6% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 0 - - - - - Information 23 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 14 57.1% 0.0% 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 74 14.9% 17.6% 67.6% 0.0% 0.0% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 581 52.7% 31.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 155 0.0% 100.0 % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other services, except public administration 92 39.1% 0.0% 22.8% 38.0% 0.0% Public administration 104 41.3% 20.2% 11.5% 26.9% 0.0% Spring Lake Total Manageme nt, business, science, and arts occupation s Servic e occup ations Sales and office occupati ons Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 021417wsa HC BOC Page 100 Impact Greater Fayetteville 87 Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,080 26.6% 31.2% 26.0% 4.6% 11.6% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Construction 102 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 79.4% 0.0% Manufacturing 164 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 73.2% Wholesale trade 22 68.2% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% Retail trade 609 7.7% 3.4% 81.0% 0.0% 7.9% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 105 24.8% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 64.8% Information 41 61.0% 0.0% 39.0% 0.0% 0.0% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 132 67.4% 15.2% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 236 5.9% 58.1% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 789 48.3% 42.7% 4.9% 0.0% 4.1% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 473 9.3% 65.8% 7.6% 0.0% 17.3% Other services, except public administration 112 11.6% 71.4% 8.0% 8.9% 0.0% Public administration 285 44.9% 19.3% 28.8% 4.2% 2.8% Source: US Census Bureau Employment by Sectors Fayettev ille Hope Mills Lillingt on Raefo rd Spring Lake Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 6,027 836 1,630 3,080 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 208 0 16 0 10 Construction 3,294 240 37 25 102 Manufacturing 4,579 520 88 339 164 Wholesale trade 897 135 24 0 22 Retail trade 9,591 780 76 223 609 Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 2,473 280 33 0 105 Information 1,089 64 18 23 41 Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 2,949 252 26 14 132 Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 5,209 420 76 74 236 Educational services, and health care and social assistance 20,178 1,629 276 581 789 Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8,503 723 61 155 473 021417wsa HC BOC Page 101 Impact Greater Fayetteville 88 Other services, except public administration 3,659 359 37 92 112 Public administration 8,101 625 68 104 285 Total 70,730 6,027 836 1,630 3,080 Employment by Sectors (percent) Fayettev ille Hope Mills Lillingt on Raefo rd Spring Lake Civilian employed population 16 years and over 100.0% 100.0% 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% Construction 4.7% 4.0% 4.4% 1.5% 3.3% Manufacturing 6.5% 8.6% 10.5% 20.8 % 5.3% Wholesale trade 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.7% Retail trade 13.6% 12.9% 9.1% 13.7 % 19.8% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 3.5% 4.6% 3.9% 0.0% 3.4% Information 1.5% 1.1% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 4.2% 4.2% 3.1% 0.9% 4.3% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 7.4% 7.0% 9.1% 4.5% 7.7% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 28.5% 27.0% 33.0% 35.6 % 25.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 12.0% 12.0% 7.3% 9.5% 15.4% Other services, except public administration 5.2% 6.0% 4.4% 5.6% 3.6% Public administration 11.5% 10.4% 8.1% 6.4% 9.3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Employment by Occupations Fayettev ille Hope Mills Lillingt on Raefo rd Spring Lake Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 6,027 836 1,630 3,080 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 34.5% 32.2% 34.1% 29.0 % 26.6% Service occupations 21.2% 19.3% 23.3% 22.9 % 31.2% Sales and office occupations 25.8% 26.7% 19.7% 24.4 % 26.0% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 7.9% 7.4% 3.8% 8.2% 4.6% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 10.7% 14.4% 19.0% 15.5 % 11.6% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 102 Impact Greater Fayetteville 89 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: US Census Bureau Selected Economic Data for Towns Subject Fayetteville city, NC Hope Mills town, NC Lillington town, NC Raeford city, NC Spring Lake town, NC Estimate Percent Estimat e Perce nt Estim ate Perce nt Estim ate Percen t Estim ate Percent EMPLOYMENT STATUS Population 16 years and over 157,188 157,188 11,500 11,500 2,875 2,875 3,474 3,474 8,495 8,495 In labor force 103,387 65.8% 7,279 63.3% 976 33.9% 1,855 53.4% 6,078 71.5% Civilian labor force 82,028 52.2% 6,683 58.1% 957 33.3% 1,826 52.6% 3,671 43.2% Employed 70,730 45.0% 6,027 52.4% 836 29.1% 1,630 46.9% 3,080 36.3% Unemployed 11,298 7.2% 656 5.7% 121 4.2% 196 5.6% 591 7.0% Armed Forces 21,359 13.6% 596 5.2% 19 0.7% 29 0.8% 2,407 28.3% Not in labor force 53,801 34.2% 4,221 36.7% 1,899 66.1% 1,619 46.6% 2,417 28.5% Civilian labor force 82,028 82,028 6,683 6,683 957 957 1,826 1,826 3,671 3,671 Percent Unemployed (X) 13.8% (X) 9.8% (X) 12.6% (X) 10.7% (X) 16.1% Females 16 years and over 80,547 80,547 6,632 6,632 1,034 1,034 1,970 1,970 4,460 4,460 In labor force 47,190 58.6% 3,907 58.9% 547 52.9% 1,096 55.6% 2,547 57.1% Civilian labor force 44,310 55.0% 3,838 57.9% 547 52.9% 1,096 55.6% 2,300 51.6% Employed 38,421 47.7% 3,429 51.7% 508 49.1% 972 49.3% 1,898 42.6% OCCUPATION Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 70,730 6,027 6,027 836 836 1,630 1,630 3,080 3,080 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 24,407 34.5% 1,940 32.2% 285 34.1% 472 29.0% 818 26.6% Service occupations 14,983 21.2% 1,161 19.3% 195 23.3% 374 22.9% 961 31.2% Sales and office occupations 18,229 25.8% 1,612 26.7% 165 19.7% 397 24.4% 801 26.0% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 5,572 7.9% 445 7.4% 32 3.8% 134 8.2% 142 4.6% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 7,539 10.7% 869 14.4% 159 19.0% 253 15.5% 358 11.6% INDUSTRY 021417wsa HC BOC Page 103 Impact Greater Fayetteville 90 Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 70,730 6,027 6,027 836 836 1,630 1,630 3,080 3,080 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 208 0.3% 0 0.0% 16 1.9% 0 0.0% 10 0.3% Construction 3,294 4.7% 240 4.0% 37 4.4% 25 1.5% 102 3.3% Manufacturing 4,579 6.5% 520 8.6% 88 10.5% 339 20.8% 164 5.3% Wholesale trade 897 1.3% 135 2.2% 24 2.9% 0 0.0% 22 0.7% Retail trade 9,591 13.6% 780 12.9% 76 9.1% 223 13.7% 609 19.8% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 2,473 3.5% 280 4.6% 33 3.9% 0 0.0% 105 3.4% Information 1,089 1.5% 64 1.1% 18 2.2% 23 1.4% 41 1.3% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 2,949 4.2% 252 4.2% 26 3.1% 14 0.9% 132 4.3% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 5,209 7.4% 420 7.0% 76 9.1% 74 4.5% 236 7.7% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 20,178 28.5% 1,629 27.0% 276 33.0% 581 35.6% 789 25.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8,503 12.0% 723 12.0% 61 7.3% 155 9.5% 473 15.4% Other services, except public administration 3,659 5.2% 359 6.0% 37 4.4% 92 5.6% 112 3.6% Public administration 8,101 11.5% 625 10.4% 68 8.1% 104 6.4% 285 9.3% CLASS OF WORKER Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 70,730 6,027 6,027 836 836 1,630 1,630 3,080 3,080 Private wage and salary workers 47,761 67.5% 4,152 68.9% 581 69.5% 1,238 76.0% 2,388 77.5% Government workers 20,001 28.3% 1,638 27.2% 226 27.0% 322 19.8% 598 19.4% Self-employed in own not incorporated business workers 2,842 4.0% 237 3.9% 29 3.5% 70 4.3% 94 3.1% Unpaid family workers 126 0.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% INCOME AND BENEFITS (IN 2014 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) Total households 77,935 77,935 5,756 5,756 997 997 1,804 1,804 4,516 4,516 Less than $10,000 6,887 8.8% 427 7.4% 157 15.7% 340 18.8% 336 7.4% $10,000 to $14,999 4,226 5.4% 316 5.5% 82 8.2% 213 11.8% 263 5.8% $15,000 to $24,999 8,663 11.1% 673 11.7% 189 19.0% 305 16.9% 709 15.7% $25,000 to $34,999 10,400 13.3% 768 13.3% 177 17.8% 279 15.5% 813 18.0% $35,000 to $49,999 13,557 17.4% 748 13.0% 169 17.0% 222 12.3% 1,020 22.6% $50,000 to $74,999 15,280 19.6% 1,113 19.3% 93 9.3% 113 6.3% 788 17.4% $75,000 to $99,999 8,421 10.8% 911 15.8% 77 7.7% 122 6.8% 416 9.2% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 104 Impact Greater Fayetteville 91 $100,000 to $149,999 6,741 8.6% 540 9.4% 38 3.8% 140 7.8% 113 2.5% $150,000 to $199,999 2,190 2.8% 225 3.9% 10 1.0% 56 3.1% 37 0.8% $200,000 or more 1,570 2.0% 35 0.6% 5 0.5% 14 0.8% 21 0.5% Median household income (dollars) 44,514 (X) 47,332 (X) 29,03 1 (X) 26,39 2 (X) 37,15 4 (X) Mean household income (dollars) 57,695 (X) 57,575 (X) 37,38 1 (X) 47,95 0 (X) 42,77 1 (X) With earnings 62,249 79.9% 4,654 80.9% 655 65.7% 1,161 64.4% 4,003 88.6% Mean earnings (dollars) 55,087 (X) 56,736 (X) 39,72 5 (X) 41,95 7 (X) 41,01 3 (X) With Social Security 18,267 23.4% 1,564 27.2% 336 33.7% 533 29.5% 546 12.1% Mean Social Security income (dollars) 16,073 (X) 13,088 (X) 14,14 6 (X) 15,63 9 (X) 12,36 2 (X) With retirement income 17,205 22.1% 1,319 22.9% 181 18.2% 420 23.3% 527 11.7% Mean retirement income (dollars) 24,404 (X) 21,696 (X) 18,88 2 (X) 52,35 6 (X) 19,17 5 (X) With Supplemental Security Income 4,228 5.4% 226 3.9% 106 10.6% 153 8.5% 204 4.5% Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 8,922 (X) 8,730 (X) 7,392 (X) 8,269 (X) 7,649 (X) With cash public assistance income 1,680 2.2% 164 2.8% 5 0.5% 38 2.1% 35 0.8% Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 2,278 (X) 1,954 (X) 7,400 (X) 5,455 (X) 1,711 (X) With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits in the past 12 months 12,942 16.6% 885 15.4% 161 16.1% 427 23.7% 753 16.7% Median family income (dollars) 50,493 (X) 57,739 (X) 39,47 9 (X) 35,92 3 (X) 39,12 1 (X) Mean family income (dollars) 64,252 (X) 65,292 (X) 48,21 4 (X) 53,48 1 (X) 45,66 1 (X) Per capita income (dollars) 23,843 (X) 21,194 (X) 12,93 6 (X) 19,26 0 (X) 16,36 5 (X) Source: US Census Bureau Employment by Sectors for Local Cities and Towns Fayettevil le Hope Mills Lillingto n Raefor d Spring Lake Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 6,027 836 1,630 3,080 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 021417wsa HC BOC Page 105 Impact Greater Fayetteville 92 Construction 4.7% 4.0% 4.4% 1.5% 3.3% Manufacturing 6.5% 8.6% 10.5% 20.8% 5.3% Wholesale trade 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.7% Retail trade 13.6% 12.9% 9.1% 13.7% 19.8% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 3.5% 4.6% 3.9% 0.0% 3.4% Information 1.5% 1.1% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 4.2% 4.2% 3.1% 0.9% 4.3% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 7.4% 7.0% 9.1% 4.5% 7.7% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 28.5% 27.0% 33.0% 35.6% 25.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 12.0% 12.0% 7.3% 9.5% 15.4% Other services, except public administration 5.2% 6.0% 4.4% 5.6% 3.6% Public administration 11.5% 10.4% 8.1% 6.4% 9.3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Employment by Occupations for Local Cities and Towns Fayettevill e Hope Mills Lillingto n Raefor d Spring Lake Civilian employed population 16 years and over 70,730 6,027 836 1,630 3,080 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 34.5% 32.2% 34.1% 29.0% 26.6% Service occupations 21.2% 19.3% 23.3% 22.9% 31.2% Sales and office occupations 25.8% 26.7% 19.7% 24.4% 26.0% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 7.9% 7.4% 3.8% 8.2% 4.6% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 10.7% 14.4% 19.0% 15.5% 11.6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Civilian labor force unemployed, percent Fayetteville Hope Mills Lillington Raeford Spring Lake 2014 14.6 9.8 12.6 10.7 16.1 2013 14.6 9.4 13.1 11.8 18.9 2012 13.9 10.5 14.7 13.5 17.9 2011 12.9 8.4 13.3 9.9 14.6 2010 11.7 6.8 9.8 7.8 11.6 Source: US Census Bureau 021417wsa HC BOC Page 106 Impact Greater Fayetteville 93 Appendix C: Economic Impact Model Assumptions, Methodology, And Supplementary Results The IMPLAN professional software is used in this study to estimate the economic impact. The IMPLAN Pro software is considered as a gold standard for estimating the economic impact and is widely used by academic institutions, federal, state and local governmental agencies. The software uses the input-output tables to track how dollars injected into a sector are spent and re-spent in other sectors of the economy creating ripple effects in the entire region. The study uses a Multiple Region Input Output (MRIO) Model to estimate the economic impact. The rationale for using MRIO instead of a single region model is as follows: 1. Close geographical location of Cumberland, Harnett and Hoke counties. 2. Commuting patterns of workers among the three counties. 3. Trade patterns among the three counties. 4. Spill-over effects among the three counties. 5. The three counties significantly interact with one another. 6. Counties complement one another. 7. The economic effects of an external event are inseparable among the three counties. The baseline data and information is provided by a regional model that includes Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke counties. Fort Bragg--Impact of Military Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Model Information Model Year 2014 Value Added GRP $17,718,122,417 Employee Compensation $11,677,804,124 Total Personal Income $14,888,310,000 Proprietor Income $653,816,838 Total Employment 207,220 Other Property Type Income $4,801,379,740 Tax on Production and Import $585,121,715 Number of Industries 219 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 653 Total Value Added $17,718,122,417 Area Count 1 Final Demand Population 326,328 Households 11,136,503,735 Total Households 125,319 State/Local Government $2,303,135,989 Average Household Income $118,803 Federal Government $17,780,608,158 Capital $1,953,338,196 Trade Flows Method Trade Flows Model Exports $4,883,169,229 Model Status Multipliers Imports -$19,513,972,801 021417wsa HC BOC Page 107 Impact Greater Fayetteville 94 Institutional Sales -$824,660,118 Economic Indicators Shannon-Weaver Index .6007 Total Final Demand: $17,718,122,388 Top Ten Industries Sector Description Employment Labor Income Output 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military 52,764 $5,303,258,000 $6,229,695,000 535 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military 12,708 $1,207,496,000 $1,886,813,000 533 * Employment and payroll of local govt, non-education 8,863 $583,120,800 $676,594,200 534 * Employment and payroll of local govt, education 8,665 $436,734,600 $506,217,400 502 Limited-service restaurants 7,250 $104,699,000 $483,887,700 440 Real estate 5,770 $62,645,480 $942,615,300 501 Full-service restaurants 5,027 $90,681,440 $193,088,600 532 * Employment and payroll of state govt, education 4,308 $202,174,300 $236,112,800 405 Retail - General merchandise stores 4,001 $97,882,050 $240,496,200 456 Scientific research and development services 3,045 $268,531,400 $837,533,400 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Table above shows that the region employs 265,000 people to produces goods and services about worth $21Billion. Total population of the region is about 504,000. Approximately 190,000 households earn $20,556,270,000 in personal income, including investment and other income as well as wages. IMPLAN has 536 sectors, but only 262 sectors are represented in the region. This reflects the fact that a few sectors/industries dominate the region and determine its economic growth. The dominance of service sector and conspicuous absence of manufacturing industries is evident from the list of top ten employers. The major employers in our region are federal, state and local governments which together employ more workers in our region than top 20 employers combined. It is also noteworthy that the federal government alone (because of military at Fort Bragg) employs one fifth of all workers in our region. Because the region is not highly diversified, much is imported from elsewhere in the state, in the country and abroad. While the three county region exports about $6.5 billion, the region imports almost $25 billion worth of goods and services. This presents a potential opportunity for sustained growth by potentially leveraging resources and expertise within the region to produce within the region goods and services that are currently imported from elsewhere. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 108 Impact Greater Fayetteville 95 Cumberland economy is the largest economy in our region with 85 percent of Regional GRP followed by Harnett County with 11 percent and Hoke with about 5 percent (see PowerPoint side). Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional employment reflects the same trend. Cumberland County employs about 78 percent of the labor force, Harnett about 16 percent and Hoke approximately 5 percent. Approximately, 64 percent of the region population resides in Cumberland County followed by more than a quarter living in Harnett County and about 11percent in Hoke County. The chart shows distribution of the military population among different municipalities in a county, Fayetteville has the largest concentration of military population about 32,000, followed by Spring Lake with about 22,000, 500 in Hope Mills, 19 in Lillington and 29 in Raeford. The data presented in the slide suggest that whether the troops are reduced by 3,000, 2,000, or 1,000, the brunt of the impact will be borne by residents of Cumberland County. Trends in Contributions of Fort Bragg to Regional Economy To assess the economic impact of a potential reduction in troops at Fort Bragg, it may be instructive to examine the recent contributions of military presence at Fort Bragg to the broader regional economy. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 109 Impact Greater Fayetteville 96 It is important to note that except for 2012, there has been a steady decline in the overall economic impact of Fort Bragg on this region (see PP above). In the 11 county region, the economic impact of the Fort Bragg has steadily declined from $12 billion in 2010 to about $6 billion in 2015-- almost a 50 percent reduction. The trend is the same for Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke counties. It is noteworthy that the active duty soldiers peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining ever since. The peak for Fort Bragg total population occurred one year later. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 110 Impact Greater Fayetteville 97 Source: Fort Bragg Public Relations, January 2016 Fort Bragg Economic Impact of Potential Reduction in Troops: Models and Assumptions The total reduction in payroll of a potential drawdown of soldiers is critical in determining its economic impact on the three (3) county region. The military pay is determined by administrative classification (Special Forces, Infantry, 82nd Division, etc.), rank (Captain, Lieutenant, PFC, etc.), family size (married with or without children), and years of service. Of course, the total payroll must be adjusted for federal taxes and relevant saving rates to obtain disposable income. As there are no further announced personnel cuts at Fort Bragg projected for the near future, it was necessary to craft potential scenarios for prospective troop reduction. This study received guidance from two resource persons with considerable military background and experience. Scenario 1: Scenario 1 is based on the 2013-2015 Armed Forces Comprehensive Survey of Annual Expenditure of All Consuming Units. The typical armed forces household income and expenditure profile from this survey is used to determine the disposable income and detailed spending reductions likely to be associated with reductions of 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 soldiers that could be reduced from Fort Bragg. Other than the assumptions underlying the IMPLAN model, it assumed that (1) the drawdown of troops will continue to reflect the existing ratio of civilian personnel to the active duty soldiers; (2) other than the local installation contracts, the number and value of Department of Defense contracts are uncorrelated to the size of troops; (3) the active duty soldiers who are separated from Fort Bragg do not stay in the area. Footnote: Although the Army constitutes the largest segment of the armed forces and compensation is comparable to that of other armed services, the data on expenditure patterns Fort Bragg Population ASIP COP Data (31 January 2016)FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Active Duty Army Military 44,436 45,437 45,290 45,051 44,954 44,702 42,532 41,716 PCS Students Military 2,208 2,638 2,966 1,917 2,701 2,306 3,140 2,163 Other Military ( Air Force, Other Services)785 818 751 2,936 2,862 2,998 3,002 3,002 Total Active Component 47,429 48,893 49,007 49,904 50,517 50,006 48,674 46,881 Training Military (TDY Students, Transient & Rotational)3,787 2,305 2,536 2,813 2,899 3,480 2,733 2,956 Reserve Component Military (Assigned at Fort Bragg)1,891 1,810 1,816 3,207 3,281 3,283 3,262 3,391 Total Fort Bragg Military Population 53,107 53,008 53,359 55,924 56,697 56,769 54,669 53,228 Civilian Employees (Assigned at Fort Bragg)9,340 10,158 11,344 14,116 14,515 14,380 14,470 14,663 Contract Employees (Working at Fort Bragg) 6,688 6,984 5,472 5,481 5,496 6,342 5,888 5,552 Military Family Members (Active Duty Military)72,092 74,317 74,491 75,854 76,786 76,009 73,984 71,259 Total Fort Bragg Population 141,227 144,467 144,666 151,375 153,494 153,500 149,011 144,702 Peak Active Duty Peak Total 021417wsa HC BOC Page 111 Impact Greater Fayetteville 98 by members of the armed forces includes survey data from all members of the military—not just the Army. Fort Bragg Troops Reduction Scenario 1 Economic Impact 3000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -4,847 ($264,458,573) ($617,522,885) ($12,087,902) Harnett County -6.5 ($169,138) ($244,877) ($23,279) Hoke County -2.5 ($35,895) ($176,356) ($5,167) Total Impact -4,856.0 ($264,663,606) ($618,344,116) ($12,116,348) 2000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County 3,231.90 ($176,305,715) ($411,681,907) ($8,058,259) Harnett County -4.3 ($112,759) ($4,429,918) ($15,512) Hoke County -1.6 ($23,932) ($117,836) ($3,444) Total Economic Impact -3,237.80 ($267,632,801) ($416,229,661) ($8,077,215) 1000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -1,615.00 ($88,152,857) ($98,514,207) ($1,712,323) Harnett County -2.2 ($56,379) ($214,959) ($3,151) Hoke County -0.8 ($11,966) $58,918 ($699) Total Impact -1,618.90 ($88,221,203) ($98,788,084) ($1,716,173) Source: IMPLAN model and authors’ calculations It is evident form the above table, given the income and expenditure patterns noted, a 3,000 reduction in troops would result in the region losing approximately 5,000 full-time and part- time jobs, $618 million in sales, $264 million in wages and salaries and $12 million in tax revenues. With 2,000 troop reduction, the region will lose full-time and part-time jobs 3,237 jobs, approximately $416 million in sales, $268 million in wages and salaries and about $8 million in taxes, given this set of troop income assumptions. With 1,000 soldiers draw down, the region will lose 1,618 full-time and part-time jobs, almost $99 million in sales, approximately $88 million in wages and salaries and about $5 million in state and local taxes in this scenario. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 112 Impact Greater Fayetteville 99 Oe military job supports 1.20 jobs in the region, one dollar in military output supports $1.17 in regional output and $1.00 in military salary supports $1.11 in the Civilian sector. As noted in the table above, the residents of Cumberland County will bear the brunt of the adverse economic impact of reduction in troops, with relatively few reductions in jobs and income in Harnett and Hoke counties. The top ten industries impacted under the troop reduction scenarios described above are shown in the table below. Top Ten Industries/Sectors Impacted by Troop Reductions—Scenario Set 1 Cumberland County Top Ten Sectors by Employment Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Description Total Employment 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -4,044.0 502 Limited-service restaurants -62.7 501 Full-service restaurants -57.9 440 Real estate -48.7 475 Offices of physicians -36.8 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -35.7 483 Nursing and community care facilities -30.7 503 All other food and drinking places -26.8 400 Retail - Food and beverage stores -24.3 509 Personal care services -24.2 Top Ten Sectors by Labor Income Total Labor Income 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -258,262,072.4 475 Offices of physicians -3,089,430.8 501 Full-service restaurants -1,085,560.1 434 Nondepository credit intermediation and related activities -1,061,034.6 502 Limited-service restaurants -940,052.9 483 Nursing and community care facilities -919,302.4 504 Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes -914,022.4 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -907,154.5 396 Retail - Motor vehicle and parts dealers -855,422.3 395 Wholesale trade -811,931.5 Top Ten Sectors by Output Total Output 536 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -495,893,093.0 441 Owner-occupied dwellings -17,101,382.0 440 Real estate -8,392,286.1 475 Offices of physicians -4,911,116.0 502 Limited-service restaurants -4,368,363.2 021417wsa HC BOC Page 113 Impact Greater Fayetteville 100 428 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) -2,746,040.8 395 Wholesale trade -2,725,459.5 501 Full-service restaurants -2,324,109.7 405 Retail - General merchandise stores -2,182,999.4 433 Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation -2,004,096.6 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Other than federal government, the major sectors that will lose jobs are limited-service restaurants, full-service restaurants, real estate sector, office of physicians, general merchandise stores, nursing and community care facilities, food and drinking places, food and beverages stores, and personal care services. The real estate sector will lose almost 49 jobs and $8 million in sales. The offices of physicians will see a reduction of 37 jobs and a loss of about $5 million in sales. Offices of physicians and nursing facilities together will also experience about $4 million reduction in wages and salaries. Top ten losers in terms of wages and salaries are also shown in the table above. Scenario Set 2: Scenario Set 2 is based on the assumption that troop reductions will not take place at the Command level, which would include a higher representation of senior level officers and civilians, but rather at the battalion level, which would mean fewer senior level officers would be involved. This approach was recommended by a liaison to the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment. A typical battalion comprises of one HQ company and one HQ support company and three (3) generic companies, as illustrated in the slide below. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 114 Impact Greater Fayetteville 101 Source: Planning Document of the U.S. Army Scenario 2 Assumptions and Procedures The personnel ranks and classification were used to compute personnel payroll. Adjustments were made in payroll for relevant federal taxes and saving rates to derive the disposable incomes for different personnel levels. The average disposable income was used to compute total disposable income for 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 troops. It is assumed that separation of active duty soldiers will result in at least 10 percent reduction in Civilians jobs. On consultant's recommendation, it was stipulated that one quarter of civilian jobs will be in each of the following salary levels: GS 11, 12, 13, and 14. Relevant federal and state taxes and average saving rate were deducted to obtain total Civilian disposable income. The economic impact of potential reduction in soldiers at different levels is shown in the table below. The economic impact of potential reduction of troops in Scenario Set 2 is similar to Scenario Set 1, although lower in magnitude. (500) Total Battalion HQ Company Company A Company B Support Company Intel Section Logistics Section Medical Section HQ Platoon (125)(100)(75) (15) (10) (10) (33) (100) Company C (100) Personnel Section (10) Operations Section (30) Communications Section (15) Maintenance Platoon Distribution Platoon Feeding Section HQ Platoon (5) (15) (17) (38) Special Staff (2) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 115 Impact Greater Fayetteville 102 Scenario Set 2—Impact of Prospective Troop Reductions 3000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -3,627 ($107,589,895) ($450,204,241) ($5,147,004) Harnett County -2.6 ($68,811) ($262,356) ($9,479) Hoke County -1 ($14,605) ($71,900) ($2,102) Total Impact -3,630.6 ($107,673,311) ($450,538,497) ($5,158,585) 2000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -2,393.00 ($63,659,523) ($291,115,618) ($3,026,483) Harnett County -1.6 ($40,714) ($155,232) ($5,543) Hoke County -0.6 ($8,641) ($45,548) ($1,243) Total Economic Impact -2,395.20 ($63,708,878) ($291,316,398) ($3,033,269) 1000 Troops Reduction Region Employment Labor Income Output State and Local Taxes Cumberland County -1,208.00 ($35,783,426) ($105,041,297) ($1,712,323) Harnett County -0.9 ($22,886) ($87,257) ($3.151) Hoke County -0.3 ($22,816) ($29,916) ($699) Total Economic Impact -1,618.90 ($35,829,128) ($105,158,470) ($1,716,173) Multipliers Employment Output Labor Income Multiplier Multiplier Multiplier 3,000 Troops 1.1 1.08 1.1 Source: IMPLAN model and authors’ calculations The summary results under these assumptions show that this region will lose approximately 3,630 jobs, $450 million in sales, $107 million in wages and salaries and $5 million in state and local tax revenues. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 116 Impact Greater Fayetteville 103 With 2,000 troops reduction, we will lose 2,395 jobs, $291.3 million in sales, $63.7 million in wages and salaries and about $3 million in state and local taxes. With 1,000 soldiers draw down, we will lose approximately 1,618 jobs, $105 million in sales, $35.8 million in wages and salaries and about $3.7million in state and local taxes. The impact of reduction in 3,000 soldiers on top ten sectors by labor income, output, and employment are shown in the table The major industries that will be impacted by the drawdown of 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 troops will be federal government, limited service restaurants, real estate, retail, offices of Physicians, nursing and community care facilities (see the table below) Scenario Set 2: Industry Impacts from Troop Reductions Top Ten by Labor Income Labor Income * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -75,383,357.5 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -21,599,222.9 Offices of physicians -1,160,143.1 Full-service restaurants -407,649.6 Nondepository credit intermediation and related activities -398,439.7 Limited-service restaurants -353,008.7 Nursing and community care facilities -345,216.5 Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes -343,233.7 Retail - General merchandise stores -340,654.7 Retail - Motor vehicle and parts dealers -321,228.2 Top Ten by Output Total Output * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -367,873,213.8 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -46,261,371.7 Owner-occupied dwellings -6,421,911.4 Real estate -3,151,471.5 Offices of physicians -1,844,222.4 Limited-service restaurants -1,640,407.9 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) -1,031,193.3 Wholesale trade -1,023,464.6 Full-service restaurants -872,749.7 Retail - General merchandise stores -819,760.0 Top Ten by Employment Total Employment * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -3,000.0 * Employment and payroll of federal govt, non-military -300.0 021417wsa HC BOC Page 117 Impact Greater Fayetteville 104 Limited-service restaurants -23.5 Full-service restaurants -21.8 Real estate -18.3 Offices of physicians -13.8 Retail - General merchandise stores -13.4 Nursing and community care facilities -11.5 All other food and drinking places -10.1 Retail - Food and beverage stores -9.1 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Economic Impact by Other Major Industries Scenario 1 and 2 impacts on more specific industries are detailed in the table below. The estimates are based on the 2013-2015 Annual Expenditure of Armed Forces Survey disposable income of a majority of the households included in the survey. In scenario 1, the actual spending on each item was multiplied by number of soldiers to obtain the total spending. Scenario 2 expenditures are based on the total disposable income of a generic battalion. The total spending was calculated by multiplying average spending of all consuming units in the survey by the total disposable income of 3,000, 2000, and 1,000 soldiers. The spending estimates, however, must be accepted with a grain of salt in that the estimates are derived from the survey of all armed forces. Although the military represents the largest component of the armed forces, it may not accurately reflect the actual spending of the military at Fort Bragg. Impact by Major Industries Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Total 3000 Troops Total with 2000 Troops Total 1000 Troops Total 3ooo Troops Total 2ooo Troops Total 1ooo Troops Food $24,459,540 $16,306,360 $6,879,380 $9,571,565 $6,381,043 $3,190,422 Meals at restaurants, carry outs and other* $8,734,590 $5,833,060 $2,338,060 $3,374,829 $2,249,879 $1,124,591 Alcoholic beverages $1,542,450 $1,028,300 $383,890 $867,796 $445,196 $222,538 Housing $12,828,270 $8,552,180 4,376,090 $4,005,159 $2,698,099 $1,734,689 Mortgage interest and charges $825,230 $550,620 $275,310 $520,470 $346,970 $173,442 Household furnishings and equipment $5,523,980 $3,669,320 $1,132,100 $2,321,116 $1,546,517 $773,696 Furniture $1,615,890 $1,077,260 $362,450 $593,546 $394,495 $197,859 New Cars and trucks $5,784,480 $3,856,320 $896,600 $2,385,796 $1,589,581 $795,240 Used Cars and Trucks $7,511,040 $5,007,360 $2,225,520 $2,501,078 $1,666,390 $833,666 Major Appliances $782,910 $521,940 $137,710 $336,397 $224,264 $112,128 021417wsa HC BOC Page 118 Impact Greater Fayetteville 105 Gasoline and motor oil $8,657,430 $5,771,620 $2,405,030 $3,104,394 $2,068,360 $1,120,890 Vehicle insurance* $3,050,970 $2,033,980 $884,730 $1,504,379 $1,002,321 $501,444 Leased and rental vehicles $2,092,800 $1,395,200 $539,400 $400,200 $266,641 $133,396 Health insurance $7,167,540 $4,778,360 $1,613,550 $3,770,259 $2,512,005 $1,265,713 Hospital room and services $472,740 $311,160 $91,560 $183,579 $122,313 $61,191 Entertainment $9,073,830 $6,049,220 $2,054,230 $3,780,245 $2,518,659 $1,260,042 Personal care products and services $2,089,680 $1,393,120 $557,020 $909,670 $606,084 $303,212 College tuition $754,410 $502,940 $25,790 $1,107,701 $736,518 $368,245 Elementary and high school tuition $519,150 $346,100 $86,610 $216,903 $144,600 $72,298 Legal fees $433,590 $289,060 $121,100 $183,593 $122,322 $61,395 Accounting fees $145,110 $96,740 $33,440 $94,565 $63,605 $31,820 Cash contributions to charities and other organizations $268,800 $179,200 $89,600 $300,833 $200,436 $100,274 Cash contributions to church, religious organizations $1,901,640 $1,267,760 $89,600 $1,024,722 $682,650 $341,518 Cash contribution to educational institutions $129,180 $86,120 $63,600 $60,578 $40,361 $20,192 Copyright 2016 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. The potential reduction of 3,000 soldiers under Scenario 1 and 2 will impact other major industries as follows, The food industry will lose sales between $24 million and $9.5 million, restaurants between $7 million and $3 million; alcoholic beverages between $1.5 million and $867,796; Furniture industry between $1.6 million and $591,546; new cars and trucks dealers between $5.7 million and $2.8 million; used cars and trucks between $7.5 million and $2.5 million; entertainment industry between $9 million and $3.7 million; personal care products and services between $2 million and $909,570 and major appliances between $782,910 and $336,397. Potential Entrepreneurial Opportunities for Separated Soldiers in the Three (3) County Region The table below shows the industries and sectors in Cumberland, Harnett and Hoke Counties with excess demand that is not currently met by the local suppliers. For example, in Cumberland County, approximately $119 million demand for specialty food is currently being met by suppliers outside the county. Similarly, in Harnett County, there is $121.5 million excess demand for general merchandise items and Hoke County $53 million excess demand for beverages and food are currently being met by suppliers from outside the County. While in most cases the excess demand in a given county cannot be met within the county because of 021417wsa HC BOC Page 119 Impact Greater Fayetteville 106 economy of scale issues, and lack of complementary skills and resources, this view of excess demand does provide an instructive starting point for identifying potential county-specific growth opportunities. Sectors/industry with Excess Demand Cumberland County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 4452 Specialty Food Stores $118,871,795 445 Food and Beverages stores $106,600,864 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $71,245,517 447 Gasoline Stations $29,067,044 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $19,179,338 4453 Beer wine and Liquor Stores $9,518,640 4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment Supply Stores $8,912,064 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $7,305,590 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $4,096,069 7223 Special Food Services $2,665,089 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $941,440 4533 Used Merchandise stores $295,220 Harnett County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 452 General Merchandise Stores $121,589,741 4521 Department Stores excluding leased Department $92,357,060 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $72,369,671 4411 Automobile Dealers $51,683,618 448 Clothing and Clothing Specialty Stores $47,849,557 4452 Specialty Food Stores $42,729,539 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $40,612,988 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $36,245,968 4481 Clothing stores $33,244,535 4529 Other Merchandise Stores $29,232,681 7221 Full service restaurants $25,110,802 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,994,285 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $23,432,353 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $23,247,950 454 Non-stores Retailers $22,690,780 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $20,164,871 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $19,939,839 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $18,360,460 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $18,320,132 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $15,994,448 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $13,806,470 021417wsa HC BOC Page 120 Impact Greater Fayetteville 107 4421 Furniture stores $9,372,208 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $8,926,985 7222 Limited service eating places $6,235,111 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $6,062,522 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $6,015,941 4482 Shoe Stores $5,678,037 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $5,112,221 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,434,262 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $3,414,533 4542 Vending Machines Operators $915,787 Hoke County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $105,410,540 4411 Automobile Dealers $91,224,024 445 Food and beverages stores $53,004,844 4451 Grocery Stores $34,439,999 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $29,064,135 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $22,359,196 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $21,481,614 443 Electronic and Appliances stores $21,481,614 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $20,624,928 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $19,022,043 4441 Bldg Materials and supply dealers $19,022,043 4452 Specialty Food Stores $17,638,583 446 Health and Personal care stores $15,804,471 4482 Shoe Stores $15,350,457 4481 Clothing stores $15,350,457 7222 Limited service eating places $13,905,689 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $13,139,150 7221 Full service restaurants $12,238,585 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $10,839,340 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $10,496,599 447 Gasoline Stations $10,496,599 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $9,473,764 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $8,838,187 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $7,513,235 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $6,535,758 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories and Tire Services $5,348,329 4421 Furniture stores $5,231,084 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $5,006,311 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $4,018,395 021417wsa HC BOC Page 121 Impact Greater Fayetteville 108 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $3,014,563 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $2,537,562 454 Non-stores Retailers $2,537,562 7224 Drinking Places Alcohol beverages $2,307,500 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $1,976,712 4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies $1,602,985 4533 Used merchandise stores $1,380,510 4453 Beer, Wine and liquor stores $926,262 7223 Special Food Services $612,361 4531 Florists $385,510 Source: ESRI Reports 021417wsa HC BOC Page 122 Impact Greater Fayetteville 109 Appendix D: Target Sector Analysis: Supporting Analytics and Data The research for the target sector analysis was led by Applied Marketing Sciences in partnership with Creative Economic Development Consulting. The following tables, information and analysis were compiled to understand the framework of industry in Fayetteville, including Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties. Each level of information allows a deeper look at the industry clusters for Fayetteville and the region. An understanding was established for the type of industry supported and developing in the region by looking at what exists in the region, employment levels, and location quotients. Multiple industry clusters were considered throughout the process. The resulting recommended target industries for Fayetteville were discovered to be strong in the regional economy, were (in part or full) forecasted for future growth, or represented a developing opportunity. Analyzing multiple information sources allowed the data to be overlaid and industry clusters t o be researched, considered, and ultimately chosen, for Fayetteville. Summary of Analyses The analysis began with a look at the base industries in Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties, along with North Carolina as comparison. Total employment, percen tage of employment by sector, and location quotient was performed at this base industry level. Trade, transportation, and utilities, along with education and health services and leisure and hospitality, were recognized as a strong industry base in the Fayetteville region. A location quotient by industry cluster was then completed by establishment, employment, and wages. Industry location quotient is a way of quantifying how “concentrated” an industry is in a region compared to a larger geographic area, such as the state or nation. The basic uses of location quotient include: 1) determining which industries make the regional economy unique; 2) identifying the “export orientation” of an industry and identifying the most export-oriented industries in the region; and 3) identifying emerging export industries beginning to bring money into the region. Industry clusters identified through this process were biomedical/biotechnical; chemicals and chemical based products; defense and security; energy; transportation and logistics; primary metal manufacturing; and transportation equipment. A deeper look was then taken at the employment levels by 3-digit NAICS Codes to understand the specific opportunities in manufacturing, logistics, and services. At this level of analysis, the specific clusters began to materialize around defense, logistics, manufacturing, and business services. Another consideration was the forecasted growth by industry segment. While growth factors were studied across all industries, the fastest growing segments were included in the tables below. Growing segments were found among many of the industry clusters being considered 021417wsa HC BOC Page 123 Impact Greater Fayetteville 110 for Fayetteville. This part of the analysis identified health care and life sciences for consideration given the various segments of this industry included in the fastest growing industries. Employment Calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data - 2015 (BLS) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Comparison of Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties to North Carolina, 2015 (BLS) The distribution of business by major sectors was analyzed to compare and contrast Cumberland, Harnett and Hoke Counties, along with North Carolina as a whole. Based on this analysis, each county has a unique make up. While manufacturing percentages are lower in Cumberland and Harnett Counties, Hoke County shows a strong manufacturing base. Alternatively, Cumberland and Harnett are strong in trade, transportation, and utilities, along with leisure and hospitality. While Hoke County falls below the state average in both areas. All counties are above average in education and health services. Percentage of Employment calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data Percentage of Employment: Ratio of industry employment to base-industry employment times 100. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 124 Impact Greater Fayetteville 111 Location Quotients calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data Location Quotient: Ratio of analysis-industry employment in the analysis area to base-industry employment in the analysis area divided by the ratio of analysis-industry employment in the base area to base-industry employment in the base area. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry Cluster Analysis/Location Quotient Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties were analyzed by industry cluster to take a closer look at those clusters where the Location Quotient (LQ) was greater than one, indicating the area is producing more goods or services than it is consuming; therefore, exporting and creating value. The industry clusters having a Location Quotient greater than one in establishments or employment include:  Apparel and Textiles  Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences)  Chemicals and Chemical Based Products  Defense and Security  Education and Knowledge Creation  Energy  Transportation and Logistics  Primary Metal Manufacturing  Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 021417wsa HC BOC Page 125 Impact Greater Fayetteville 112 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) and Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions). Manufacturing Analysis Looking deeper into the industries at the county and regional level, we analyzed the employment, by 3-digit NAICS Industry Code, for Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties. Many industry numbers were not disclosable in the data. Given what we can determine from the analysis, the manufacturing industries of note in the region include:  Food manufacturing  Chemical manufacturing  Fabricated metal manufacturing Employment calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data (2015) Footnotes: (ND) Not Disclosable 021417wsa HC BOC Page 126 Impact Greater Fayetteville 113 (NC) Not Calculable, the data does not exist or it is zero Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Wholesale/Retail/Transportation Analysis Looking deeper into the industries at the county and regional level, we analyzed the employment, by 3-digit NAICS Industry Code, for Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties. Many industry numbers were not disclosable in the data. Wholesale, retail, or transportat ion industries of note in the region include:  General merchandise stores  Motor vehicle and parts dealers  Food and beverage stores  Warehousing and storage  Clothing and clothing accessories stores  Truck transportation Employment Calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data (2015) Footnotes: (ND) Not Disclosable (NC) Not Calculable, the data does not exist or it is zero Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Services Analysis Looking deeper into the industries at the county and regional level, we analyzed the employment, by 3-digit NAICS Industry Code, for Cumberland, Harnett, and Hoke Counties. Many industry numbers were not disclosable in the data. Services industries of note in the region include:  Food services and drinking places 021417wsa HC BOC Page 127 Impact Greater Fayetteville 114  Ambulatory health care services  Administrative and support services  Professional and technical services  Educational services  Nursing and residential care facilities Employment Calculated from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data (2015) Footnotes: (ND) Not Disclosable (NC) Not Calculable, the data does not exist or it is zero Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages 021417wsa HC BOC Page 128 Impact Greater Fayetteville 115 Current Fayetteville Businesses (D&B) Using current Dun &Bradstreet company location data, we analyzed the primary industry for companies with twenty employees or greater (1,499 companies within the three county region) in manufacturing, wholesale, and services industry. The following industries were present and were noted for further exploration.  Food Products / Processing  Fabricated Metal Products  Motor Freight Transportation and Warehousing  Communications  Wholesale Trade – Durable Goods  Wholesale Trade – Non Durable Goods  Depository Institutions  Business Services  Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management and Related Services Top Clusters in Fayetteville Metropolitan (U.S. Cluster Mapping Project) Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 129 Impact Greater Fayetteville 116 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 130 Impact Greater Fayetteville 117 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 131 Impact Greater Fayetteville 118 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 132 Impact Greater Fayetteville 119 Fastest Growing Industries According to IBISWorld, the following industries are forecast to have 4% or greater growth in the period from 2015 to 2016. Code Title Revenue Growth % (2016) 11111 Soybean Farming in the US 7.55 11191 Tobacco Growing in the US 6.37 21111 Oil Drilling & Gas Extraction in the US 22.33 21211 Coal Mining in the US 4.72 21221 Iron Ore Mining in the US 10.41 21231 Stone Mining in the US 5.77 22111c Hydroelectric Power in the US 7.12 22111d Wind Power in the US 9.77 22111e Solar Power in the US 21.81 23611b Apartment & Condominium Construction in the US 5.97 23611c Housing Developers in the US 8.10 23611d Remodeling in the US 5.90 23622a Commercial Building Construction in the US 5.10 23712 Oil & Gas Pipeline Construction in the US 7.27 23713 Transmission Line Construction in the US 5.83 23811 Concrete Contractors in the US 5.23 23814 Masonry in the US 7.88 23815 Glass & Glazing Contractors in the US 6.59 23822b Plumbers in the US 6.88 23831 Drywall & Insulation Installers in the US 4.74 23832 Painters in the US 4.37 23833 Flooring Installers in the US 4.54 23834 Tile Installers in the US 4.09 23899b Swimming Pool Construction in the US 6.64 23899c Fence Construction in the US 8.51 31191 Snack Food Production in the US 4.18 31213 Wineries in the US 5.18 32111 Sawmills & Wood Production in the US 5.11 32121 Wood Paneling Manufacturing in the US 4.12 32412 Asphalt Manufacturing in the US 4.12 32519 Organic Chemical Manufacturing in the US 5.18 32541a Brand Name Pharmaceutical Manufacturing in the US 5.66 32541b Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturing in the US 5.66 32562 Cosmetic & Beauty Products Manufacturing in the US 7.81 32611 Plastic Film, Sheet & Bag Manufacturing in the US 5.06 021417wsa HC BOC Page 133 Impact Greater Fayetteville 120 32731 Cement Manufacturing in the US 6.03 32742 Gypsum Product Manufacturing in the US 6.52 32799 Mineral Product Manufacturing in the US 5.01 33299a Guns & Ammunition Manufacturing in the US 5.14 33313 Mining, Oil & Gas Machinery Manufacturing in the US 8.72 33321 Woodworking Machinery Manufacturing in the US 4.74 33329b Printing, Paper, Food, Textile & Other Machinery Manufacturing in the US 5.12 33341 Heating & Air Conditioning Equipment Manufacturing in the US 4.24 33351 Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing in the US 4.18 33441a Semiconductor & Circuit Manufacturing in the US 6.70 33451b Medical Device Manufacturing in the US 4.89 33512 Lighting Fixtures Manufacturing in the US 4.60 33592 Wire & Cable Manufacturing in the US 4.14 33593 Wiring Device Manufacturing in the US 5.53 33632 Automobile Electronics Manufacturing in the US 6.74 33635 Automobile Transmission Manufacturing in the US 4.14 33661a Ship Building in the US 5.84 33661b Boat Building in the US 4.30 33711 Cabinet & Vanity Manufacturing in the US 4.86 42332 Stone, Concrete & Clay Wholesaling in the US 6.20 42351 Metal Wholesaling in the US 5.23 42361 Electrical Equipment Wholesaling in the US 4.97 42371 Tool & Hardware Wholesaling in the US 4.77 42373 Heating & Air Conditioning Wholesaling in the US 4.69 42432 Men's & Boys' Apparel Wholesaling in the US 5.37 42461 Plastics Wholesaling in the US 5.10 42471 Gasoline & Petroleum Bulk Stations in the US 14.87 44122b Bicycle Dealership and Repair in the US 4.93 44229 Home Furnishings Stores in the US 5.52 44611 Pharmacies & Drug Stores in the US 5.56 44612 Beauty, Cosmetics & Fragrance Stores in the US 4.92 44833 Handbag, Luggage & Accessory Stores in the US 4.52 45291 Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters in the US 4.78 45399 Small Specialty Retail Stores in the US 5.29 45411a E-Commerce & Online Auctions in the US 10.82 48111b Domestic Airlines in the US 4.17 48541 Public School Bus Services in the US 4.19 48691 Refined Petroleum Pipeline Transportation in the US 7.60 48710 Sightseeing Transportation in the US 4.20 48851 Freight Forwarding Brokerages & Agencies in the US 4.22 49222 Couriers & Local Delivery Services in the US 5.37 021417wsa HC BOC Page 134 Impact Greater Fayetteville 121 49319 Specialized Storage & Warehousing in the US 12.84 51121 Software Publishing in the US 4.23 51121a Operating Systems & Productivity Software Publishing in the US 5.28 51121c Business Analytics & Enterprise Software Publishing in the US 4.54 51121d Design, Editing & Rendering Software Publishing in the US 4.58 51121e Video Game Software Publishing in the US 7.87 51224 Audio Production Studios in the US 6.03 51711b Satellite TV Providers in the US 4.59 51711e VoIP in the US 10.54 51741 Satellite Telecommunications Providers in the US 4.57 51821 Data Processing & Hosting Services in the US 4.61 51913a Search Engines in the US 7.81 51913b Internet Publishing and Broadcasting in the US 6.67 52222 Auto Leasing, Loans & Sales Financing in the US 7.84 52232 Credit Card Processing & Money Transferring in the US 5.67 52311 Investment Banking & Securities Dealing in the US 5.76 52315 Commodity Dealing and Brokerage in the US 7.19 52321 Stock & Commodity Exchanges in the US 5.82 52391 Venture Capital & Principal Trading in the US 12.85 52392 Portfolio Management in the US 8.62 52393 Financial Planning & Advice in the US 6.14 52413 Reinsurance Carriers in the US 5.02 52429 Third-Party Administrators & Insurance Claims Adjusters in the US 5.50 52512 Health & Welfare Funds in the US 4.66 52592 Trusts & Estates in the US 10.64 53113 Storage & Warehouse Leasing in the US 4.04 53121 Real Estate Sales & Brokerage in the US 4.89 53231 Tool & Equipment Rental in the US 4.84 53311 Intellectual Property Licensing in the US 4.63 54132 Landscape Design in the US 4.95 54135 Building Inspectors in the US 4.24 54136 Geophysical Services in the US 4.97 54137 Surveying & Mapping Services in the US 4.78 54161 Management Consulting in the US 4.59 54161b HR Consulting in the US 4.77 54162 Environmental Consulting in the US 4.85 54169 Scientific & Economic Consulting in the US 7.64 54171 Scientific Research & Development in the US 5.10 54183 Media Buying Agencies in the US 5.93 54187 Print Advertising Distribution in the US 4.07 54194 Veterinary Services in the US 6.63 021417wsa HC BOC Page 135 Impact Greater Fayetteville 122 56111 Human Resources & Benefits Administration in the US 4.36 56133 Professional Employer Organizations in the US 5.24 56292 Recycling Facilities in the US 4.97 56299 Portable Toilet Rental & Septic Tank Cleaning in the US 4.44 61111a Public Schools in the US 4.42 62111a Primary Care Doctors in the US 4.66 62132 Optometrists in the US 4.04 62139a Podiatrists in the US 5.46 62139b Alternative Healthcare Providers in the US 4.02 62161 Home Care Providers in the US 5.95 62191 Ambulance Services in the US 4.15 62199 Blood & Organ Banks in the US 7.23 62231 Specialty Hospitals in the US 5.52 62311 Nursing Care Facilities in the US 5.59 62321 Residential Intellectual Disability Facilities in the US 4.47 62331 Retirement Communities in the US 5.79 62412 Elderly & Disabled Services in the US 6.32 71121b Racing & Individual Sports in the US 4.35 71141 Celebrity & Sports Agents in the US 4.18 72121 Campgrounds & RV Parks in the US 4.32 81219b Hair Loss Treatment & Removal in the US 6.55 81291 Pet Grooming & Boarding in the US 5.25 81299a Dating Services in the US 4.50 81321 Donations, Grants & Endowment in the US 7.36 81399 Homeowners' Associations in the US 4.62 NN001 Biotechnology in the US 9.07 NN005 Sustainable Building Material Manufacturing in the US 25.97 021417wsa HC BOC Page 136 Impact Greater Fayetteville 123 Appendix E: Target Industry Profiles Industry Profiles Summary Profiles were developed for each of the recommended target industries for Fayetteville. Profiles are important in taking the next steps in proactively targeting companies and providing insight into each industry cluster and sub-segments. The Profiles will provide understanding of the industry cluster and each industry sub-sector included in the cluster. The Industry Profiles include the following information:  Definition of the industry by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Codes  Targeting recommendations  Industry statistics, by industry sub-segment including o Industry revenue o Industry profit o Historical and forecasted growth o Revenue per employee o Wages as a percentage of revenue o Average employees per establishment o Wages per employee  Industry sub-segment summaries and outlooks, along with key external drivers and key success factors Logistics and Warehousing Cluster Definition (NAICS Codes) 48412 Long Distance Freight Trucking 48423 Tank and Refrigeration Trucking 48851 Freight Forwarding Brokerages and Agencies 48899 Freight Packing and Logistics Services 49311 Public Storage and Warehousing 49312 Refrigerated Storage 49319 Specialized Storage and Warehousing 45411 E-Commerce and Online Auctions 42312 Auto Parts Wholesaling 42351 Metal Wholesaling 42361 Electrical Equipment Wholesaling 42369 Electronic Parts and Equipment Wholesaling 021417wsa HC BOC Page 137 Impact Greater Fayetteville 124 Industry Vitals Targeting Recommendations The following avenues are recommendations, as targeting strategies, for Logistics and Warehousing:  Email marketing and awareness campaigns to surrounding communities and states in order to create awareness of specific opportunities, within Fayetteville such as industry park developments, available sites, and incentives  National, ongoing lead generation program  Trade show marketing in conjunction with regional or state partners, for an opportunity to meet with companies, as well as, network within the industry Initial target lists can be built from online resources such as Hoovers, Avention, InfoUSA, and industry associations. As lists are built, we search for companies fitting the target using industry codes and business descriptions. The company research process evaluates each company, as well as, their fit with Fayetteville assets, benefits and culture. Selected industry associations relevant to this target include:  International Warehouse Logistics Association – www.iwla.com  Global Cold Chain Alliance – www.gcca.org  Electronic Retailing Association – www.retailing.org  National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors – www.naw.org  Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals – www.cscmp.org  Retail Industry Leaders Association – www.rila.org Segment Summaries 48412 Long-Distance Freight Trucking DEFINITION Operators in the Long-Distance Freight Trucking industry handle various commodities, usually palletized and transported in containers or van trailers. Establishments typically provide trucking between metropolitan areas and regions that may cross North American country borders. The industry includes establishments operating as truckload or less- than-truckload carriers. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Freight transportation services index  Industrial production index  Per capita disposal income  Price of diesel  Total trade value 021417wsa HC BOC Page 138 Impact Greater Fayetteville 125 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Market research and understanding  Having a high profile in the market  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Optimum capacity utilization  Ensuring pricing policy is appropriate  Superior financial management and debt management O UTLOOK Revenue for the Long-Distance Freight Trucking industry is expected to rise 2.4% in 2017. Increasing manufacturing activity and greater retail spending will ensure higher freight volumes as retail inventory returns to pre-recessionary levels. In addition, rising trade volumes during the next five years will increase shipments to and from US ports, requiring more trucking companies to move goods across the country. The Transportation Services Index is also expected to grow as consumer spending slowly increases, indicating greater demand for industry services. In the five years to 2021, IBISWorld forecasts that industry revenue will grow at an annualized rate of 2.1% to $202.0 billion. 48423 Tank and Refrigeration Trucking DEFINITION This industry comprises establishments that provide long-distance specialized transportation of cargo using trucks and trailers. The industry moves cargo that, because of size, weight, shape or other characteristics, requires specialized equipment for transportation. Companies within this industry transport items such as automobiles, gravel, sand, dirt, chemicals, frozen goods, livestock, milk and petroleum. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Freight transportation services index  US oil and gas production index  Demand from frozen food wholesaling  Price of diesel KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Optimum capacity utilization  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Access to highly skilled workforce  Having a diverse range of clients  Successful industrial relations policy O UTLOOK Over the next five years, the Tank and Refrigeration Trucking industry will continue to grow steadily. A strengthening US economy is anticipated to lead to increased consumer spending, stimulating retail, industrial and construction activity. As a result, demand for industry services will climb. Moreover, as the manufacturing sector recovers and fuel surcharges rise, revenue will pick up from recent declines. Therefore, in the five years to 2021, industry revenue is forecast to climb an annualized 3.0% to $43.7 billion. 48851 Freight Forwarding Brokerages and Agencies DEFINITION Companies in this industry arrange the transportation of freight between shippers and carriers. These operators are usually known as freight forwarders, marine shipping agents 021417wsa HC BOC Page 139 Impact Greater Fayetteville 126 or customs brokers and offer services for many modes of transportation. Because operators act as agents, the industry does not include the cost of arrangement as part of its revenue. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Freight transportation services index  Total trade value  Consumer spending  E-commerce sales  World price of crude oil KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Understanding government policies and their implications  Provision of superior after sales service  Access to quality personnel  Having contacts within key markets O UTLOOK The Freight Forwarding Brokerages and Agencies industry will continue to grow at a relatively brisk pace over the next five years. A strengthening domestic economy, including increased consumer spending and recovering industrial activity, is projected to lead to higher freight volumes. Consequently, demand for industry services is expected to increase. Moreover, operators will continue to expand their international businesses as emerging markets further develop and trade grows. However, the recent slowdown in emerging market growth and US manufacturing may continue to slow this trend. Nonetheless, in the five years to 2021, industry revenue is forecast to climb at an annualized rate of 3.5% to $146.8 billion. 48899 Freight Packing and Logistics Services DEFINITION This industry’s main activity is providing packing and crating services for the transportation sector. The industry is composed of companies that provide consolidation of freight consignments, trade document preparation, packing, crating and otherwise preparing goods for transportation and logistics consulting services. The industry does not include actual transportation of goods. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Consumer spending  Freight transportation services index  Industrial production index  Total trade value KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Marketing of differentiated products  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Ability to provide goods and services in diverse locations  Effective quality control  Proximity to key markets  Access to multiskilled and flexible workforce O UTLOOK The Freight Packing and Logistics Services industry will grow more robustly in coming years as the global economy gains traction. Over the five years to 2020, revenue is forecast to rise at an annualized rate of 2.2% to $2.5 billion. Stronger consumption and manufacturing levels, as well as trade growth, will bolster freight volumes. These higher freight volumes will boost demand for freight packing and logistics services. The freight transportation services 021417wsa HC BOC Page 140 Impact Greater Fayetteville 127 index is forecast to increase at an annualized 1.5% over the five-year period. Nonetheless, strong internal and external competition will slow growth. Domestic and international trade are important sources of demand for freight packing and logistics services. As domestic wholesale trade and imports and exports increase, industry revenue grows as well. Operators are often responsible for packing consignments or preparing documents for product exports. Domestic wholesale trade and the total value of US trade are projected to rise over the next five years, supporting industry growth. Industry operators that survived the recession will benefit from continuous increases in demand through 2020. Rebounding domestic and overseas demand will also attract new entrants to the industry, with the number of enterprises expected to rise at an annualized rate of 1.3% to 5,867 in 2020, as demand picks up and freight volumes are revived. This industry expansion over the next five years reflects an expected long-term rise in freight trade. However, the recent slowdown in emerging market growth is anticipated to slow down demand for trade-related industry services. IBISWorld projects that a flexible workforce will continue to protect industry profitability. Companies typically hire employees on an as-needed basis, allowing them to reduce the size of their staff when downstream demand weakens so that they can stay afloat amid weaker revenue streams. Moreover, many participants operate independently and do not maintain a permanent staff. As demand for industry services grows, employment is expected to modestly increase at an annualized rate of 1.4% to 21,701 workers over the five years to 2020. Wages will follow a similar trend, increasing at an annualized rate of 1.8% to total $1.2 billion in 2020. This growth will help the industry maintain healthy profit, which is forecast to rise from 8.4% of revenue in 2015 to 9.9% in 2020. As demand returns and the workforce expands, the average employee wage is expected to rise 49311 Public Storage and Warehousing DEFINITION Industry operators provide third-party storage warehousing and storage services to the manufacturing, wholesale and retail sectors. Operators generally use equipment such as forklifts, pallets and racks to handle goods in containers like boxes, barrels and drums. Indust ry companies avoid specializing in handling bulk products of any particular type, size or quantity. Companies that rent or lease space for self-storage to consumers are not included in this industry. KEY E XTE RNAL DRIVERS  Consumer spending  E-commerce sales  Freight transportation services index  Total trade value  Manufacturing capacity utilization KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Use of most efficient work practices  Ability to alter mix of inputs in line with cost  Optimum capacity utilization  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Provision of appropriate facilities O UTLOOK The Public Storage and Warehousing industry is expected to experience stronger growth over the next five years. An anticipated acceleration of consumer spending relative to 021417wsa HC BOC Page 141 Impact Greater Fayetteville 128 the prior period will further lift demand for warehousing from manufacturers as they ship, and purchase storage for, more consumer goods. In addition, increased import penetration int o the manufacturing sector is expected to drive greater demand because foreign manufacturers often require domestic third parties to receive and store products for the US market. Finally, although it will continue to put upward pressure on industry wage an d rental costs, sustained growth in e-commerce is also expected to increase third party warehousing needs, driving strong industry growth. Over the five years to 2021, industry revenue is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 3.3% to $24.1 billion. 49312 Refrigerated Storage DEFINITION This industry includes establishments that operate refrigerated warehousing and storage facilities. Temperature-controlled services include blast freezing and tempering. Establishments that primarily store furs for trade are included in this industry. These furs are used as raw materials for the manufacturing of garments and personal accessories such as bags and shoes. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Consumer spending  Total trade value  Demand from grocery wholesaling  Demand from brand name pharmaceutical manufacturing  Demand from frozen food production KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Optimum capacity utilization  Automation – reduces costs, particularly those associates with labor  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Provision of appropriate facilities O UTLOOK The Refrigerated Storage industry is forecast to grow during the five years to 2021, supported by increasing demand from downstream markets and higher trade volume. Improving economic conditions will enable consumers to purchase a greater variety of food products at grocery stores and other retail channels, boosting demand for refrigerated storage. While pharmaceutical manufacturers only account for a small share of industry revenue, demand from this downstream market segment is anticipated to grow as the US population ages, lifting demand for prescription medication. Additionally, growing demand for pharmaceutical goods in countries such as China, Brazil and India will cause US pharmaceutical companies to increasingly rely on refrigerated storage facilities to store their goods before they are exported. The total US trade value is anticipated to grow at an annualized rate of 4.4% over the five years to 2021. Coupled with robust consumer spending, overall industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 2.0% to $5.0 billion over the same period, including a growth of 1.5% in 2017. Data from the US Department of Agriculture indicates that total cold storage capacity in the United States has grown steadily over the past decade. IBISWorld forecasts capacity to continue growing during the outlook period. As credit conditions improve, refrigerated storage operators are expected to invest in new facilities, expand the storage space of existing facilities and invest in new technology and equipment. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 142 Impact Greater Fayetteville 129 49319 Specialized Storage and Warehousing DEFINITION Companies in the Specialized Storage and Warehousing industry primarily operate specialized warehousing and storage facilities. This does not include general merchandise, refrigerated and farm product warehousing or storage. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from oil drilling and gas extraction  Demand from petroleum refining  Regulation for the specialized storage and warehouse industry  Demand from chemical manufacturing  Demand from logging KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Ability to alter mix of inputs in line with cost  Optimum capacity utilization  Automation – reduces costs, particularly those associates with labor  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Ability to accommodate environmental requirements O UTLOOK The Specialized Storage and Warehousing industry is expected to grow in the five years to 2020. Industry fortunes are linked closely to the performance of the oil and gas sectors, the chemical manufacturing sector and, to a lesser extent, the logging and automobile- manufacturing sectors. Other factors that affect industry growth include legislative compliance with security and environmental regulation, as well as technological innovation. Steady growth in demand for oil drilling and gas storage is expected to cause industry revenue to grow at a steady annualized rate of 5.9% in the five years to 2020, to $9.1 billion. In 2016, industry revenue is forecast to increase 12.8% as demand for petroleum storage increases as a result of low oil prices, and the growing economy boosts demand from chemical manufacturers and the logging industry. 45411 E-Commerce and Online Auctions DEFINITION The E-Commerce and Online Auctions industry comprises establishments that sell merchandise online. The internet is the main selling platform via either a retailer’s online s tore or an auction site. This industry excludes media and software that is streamed or downloaded online. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Per capital disposable income  Number of mobile internet connections  Percentage of services conducted online  World price of crude oil KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Ability to control stock on hand  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Provision of superior after sales service  Having a loyal customer base O UTLOOK The E-Commerce and Online Auctions industry will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than in the past, as the convenience and ability to compare items and prices incentives consumers to purchase products online. In the five years to 2021, revenue is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 4.4% to $366.2 billion, with a 4.9% growth in 2017. Despite 021417wsa HC BOC Page 143 Impact Greater Fayetteville 130 accelerated per capita disposable income growth, the growth in the number of mobile internet connections is expected to slow over the five years to 2 021, rising at an annualized rate of only 5.1%, depressing industry revenue. Additionally, volatility in the world price of crude oil is expected to have negative impacts on the average industry profit margin. In the five years to 2016, the world price of crude oil drastically declined due to increased supply; however, a correction in the price over the five years to 2021 is estimated to raise the price at an annualized rate of 8.5%. An increase in the price of crude oil could negatively affect operators’ p rofit margin by increasing shipping costs. 42312 Auto Parts Wholesaling DEFINITION This industry comprises operators that sell automotive parts wholesale to automobile manufacturers, automotive parts retailers and auto service providers. Sales of new tires and tubes are not included. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from car and automobile manufacturing  Number of motor vehicle registrations  Per capital disposable income  Age of vehicle fleet  Regulation for the automotive sector KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Upstream vertical integration (ownership links)  Ability to control stock on hand  Having contacts in key markets  Production of goods currently favored by the market  Development of a symbiotic relationship with another industry O UTLOOK As the entire automotive sector grows steadily in line with a generally improving economy, the Auto Parts Wholesaling industry will benefit. Additionally, IBISWorld expects the industry to continue its upward trend as demand from car and automobile manufacturing improves. Moreover, due to stricter emission requirements and increased ecofriendly initiatives, automakers are demanding lighter and more efficient auto parts, which are anticipated to also spur industry demand. As a result, industry revenue is estimated to grow at an annualized rate of 2.0% to $200.0 billion over the five years to 2021. In the future, the average value of auto parts demanded per vehicle may decline because of consumer trends moving toward more compact, fuel-efficient vehicles. These cars are smaller in size and scope, requiring fewer parts in production than the amount a sport utility vehicle (SUV) or light truck would call for. Over the next five years, consumer demand for these vehicles will facilitate higher compact car production. While the value of parts per vehicle is generally lower in these compact vehicles, recently introduced computer components, such as on-board diagnostic systems aimed at controlling vehicle emissions and proposed technologi cal safety features, have the ability to increase their value. Additionally, as vehicles age and their components depreciate, replacement parts become more important. Therefore, suppliers will focus on wholesaling strategies around new, high profit margin products as they are incorporated into new vehicle production and aging vehicles as replacement parts. As a result of this new strategy, industry profit is expected to benefit. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 144 Impact Greater Fayetteville 131 Leaner operating conditions lean will also ultimately lead operators to improved profitability. For example, operators are expected to find alternative ways to increase capacity without expanding the number of facilities. To this end, the number of industry establishments is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of only 1.0% to 19,1 74 facilities over the five years to 2021. As a result, operators are projected to hire more employees. Therefore, employment numbers are anticipated to slightly grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% to 235,969 employees over the five-year period. For fear of being overzealous, participants in the Auto Parts Wholesaling industry are cautiously increasing capacity and hiring, despite recent economic improvements. Nonetheless, as demand rebounds and operating costs are kept relatively low, industry operators are estimated to benefit from increased profit margins. 42351 Metal Wholesaling DEFINITION Metal wholesaling operators distribute primary metal products, both ferrous and nonferrous, to industrial and construction markets. Operators maintain inventory and ma y perform functions like sawing and cleaning on a custom basis and also as part of the distribution service. However, operators do not distribute precious metals, such as gold, silver and platinum, and they also do not distribute insulated wire or recyclable metal scrap. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  World price of steel  Industrial production index  Value of construction  World price of aluminum KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Effective quality control  Ability to control stock on hand and maintain appropriate inventory levels  Having links with suppliers  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Ability to alter mix of offerings in line with price changes and consumer preference  Proximity to key markets O UTLOOK Moving forward, the Metal Wholesaling industry’s performance will remain tied to conditions in key industrial markets and movements in primary metal prices. Sustained need for metals in key manufacturing, mining and construction industries will propel demand for industry services, especially as disposable income, business investment and interest rates continue to improve. The price of steel is expected to trend upward, after its decline over the past five years. Overall, revenue is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the five years to 2021 to reach $171.8 billion. Copyright © 1999-2016 IBISWorld 021417wsa HC BOC Page 145 Impact Greater Fayetteville 132 Defense and Security Cluster Definition (NAICS Codes) 33299 Guns and Ammunition Manufacturing 33361 Engine and Turbine Manufacturing 33422 Communication Equipment Manufacturing 33429 Alarm, Horn. and Traffic Control Equipment Manufacturing 33451 Navigational Instrument Manufacturing 33592 Wire and Cable Manufacturing 33593 Wiring Device Manufacturing 33641 Aircraft, Engine, and Parts Manufacturing 33641 Space Vehicle and Missile Manufacturing 33699 Tank and Armored Vehicle Manufacturing 51121 Security Software Publishing 51721 Wireless Telecommunications Carriers 51791 Radar and Satellite Operations 54151 IT Consulting Industry Vitals Targeting Recommendations The following avenues are recommendations, as targeting strategies, for Defense and Security:  National, ongoing lead generation program  Email marketing and awareness campaigns to surrounding communities and states in order to create awareness of specific opportunities, within Fayetteville such as industry park developments, available sites, and incentives  Trade show marketing in conjunction with regional or state partners, for an opportunity to meet with companies, as well as, network within the industry Initial target lists can be built from online resources such as Hoovers, Avention, InfoUSA, and industry associations. As lists are built, we search for companies fitting the target using industry codes and business descriptions. The company research process evaluates each company, as well as, their fit with Fayetteville assets, benefits and culture. Selected industry associations relevant to this target include:  National Electrical Manufacturers Association – www.nema.org  Aerospace Industries Association – www.aia-aerospace.org 021417wsa HC BOC Page 146 Impact Greater Fayetteville 133  Information Systems Security Association – www.issa.org  National Defense Industrial Association – www.ndia.org  National Homeland Security Association – www.nationalusai.com  AeroDef Manufacturing – www.areodefevent.com  International Society for Optics and Photonics – www.spie.org Segment Summaries 33299 Guns and Ammunition Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures small arms (including shotguns, rifles, revolvers, pistols, machine guns and grenade launchers), and ammunition, ordnance and accessories. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Federal funding for defense  Non-NATO defense spending  Local and state government investment  Per capita disposable income  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having a loyal customer base  Access to high quality inputs  Effective quality control  Having a good technical knowledge of the product  Establishment of branch names  Control of distribution arrangements O UTLOOK The Guns and Ammunition Manufacturing industry’s trajectory over the next five years will largely depend on US defense spending and per ceptions about the future of firearms legislation. While revenue grew substantially over the past five years, it is forecast to move more in line with historical growth rates as consumer demand eventually begins to normalize. Nonetheless, increased military spending on industry products will help bolster industry growth, despite overall spending remaining below levels seen in 2012. Moreover, industry operators will increasingly depend on exports for expansion. Overall, in the five years to 2021, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized 2.8% to $18.2 billion, with a 3.4% increase in 2017. 33361 Engine and Turbine Manufacturing DEFINITION Operators in this industry manufacture turbines and equipment used for power transmission, such as generators, as well as diesel engines for highway vehicles and heavy-duty equipment. Parts and accessories are included, but wind turbines are excluded (see IBISWorld report 33361b). KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Trade-weighted index  Demand from truck transportation  Private investment in industrial equipment and machinery  Electric power consumption  World price of steel KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Quickly adopting new technology  Using the latest technologies  Effective quality control  Securing long-term sales contracts  Access to export destinations 021417wsa HC BOC Page 147 Impact Greater Fayetteville 134 O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, industry manufacturers will benefit from an extended upturn in domestic freight volumes, especially in the trucking sector. Greater industrial and manufacturing activity will also ultimately increase energy demand, aiding industry sales of turbine and power generation equipment. However, sales growth for industry exports is anticipated to slow in subsequent years, as a strengthening US dollar and diminished global growth in vital emerging economies may threaten export demand for engines and turbines. However, exports are still anticipated to account for a fair share of industry revenue. Consequently, in the five years to 2021, industry revenue is expected to increase a more moderate annualized rate of 1.5% to $59.9 billion, including an estimated growth of 2.0% in 2017. 33422 Communication Equipment Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry primarily manufactures broadcasting and other wireless communication equipment. Examples of such equipment include antennas, set-top boxes, GPS systems, cell phones, satellite uplink technologies and radio and TV broadcasting equipment. Operators in this industry do not manufacture radio or television sets, intercoms or equipment to test communication signals. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Aggregate private investment  Consumer spending  Trade-weighted index  Number of cable TV subscriptions  Number of mobile internet connections  Demand from radio broadcasting KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Effective quality control  Production of a range which accommodates future developments  Having technology sharing arrangements with major players  Superior financial management and debt management O UTLOOK The Communication Equipment Manufacturing industry will benefit from increasing demand as the economy grows and consumer sentiment rises, stimulating demand from downstream industries. Moreover, as the unemployment rate decreases and per capita disposable income rises, consumers are expected to increase discretionary spending, particularly on electronics such as smart phones. Over the five years to 2021, consumer spending is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 2.4%. Additionally, demand from the Wireless Telecommunications Carriers industry (IBISWorld report 51721) and the Television Broadcasting industry (IBISWorld report 51512) are expected to grow at a faster rate than in the previous five-year period, while demand from the Radio Broadcasting industry (IBISWorld report 51511) is also anticipated to increase over the next five years. As a result of stronger demand, industry revenue is expected to rebound and grow at an annualized rate of 1.3% to $29.2 billion over the five years to 2021. 33429 Alarm, Horn, and Traffic Control Equipment Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures communications equipment that includes alarm systems, hazard detection systems, traffic signals, sirens and intercom systems. This industry excludes 021417wsa HC BOC Page 148 Impact Greater Fayetteville 135 telephone apparatuses, radio and TV broadcast equipment and wireless communications equipment. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from car and automobile manufacturing  Demand from road and highway construction  Housing starts  Trade-weighted index  Value of private nonresidential construction KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Automation  Having links with suppliers  Establishment of export markets  Production of premium goods/services  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Economies of scale O UTLOOK As residential and nonresidential construction industries ramp up building activity in the next five years, the Alarm, Horn and Traffic Control Equipment Manufacturing industry is set for steady revenue growth. The industry will also benefit from a rebound in US automobile manufacturing and renewed investments in roads and highways. In the five years to 2020, revenue is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 0.8% to $5.6 billion. More robust growth in industry revenue is anticipated to be subdued by competition from imports and slow export growth caused by an appreciating dollar during the five-year period. 33451 Navigational Instrument Manufacturing DEFINITION The industry manufactures navigational, measuring and control instruments. Its products include aeronautical instruments, appliance regulators and controls (except switches), laboratory analytical instruments, navigation and guidance systems and physical properties testing equipment. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from laboratory testing services  Private investment in industrial equipment and machinery  Research and development expenditure  Trade-weighted index  Government consumption and investment KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to the latest technology  Having links with suppliers  Developed export markets  Economies of scale  Access to highly skilled workforce  Research and development O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, the Navigational Instrument Manufacturing industry’s revenue is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 1.3% to $111.1 billion. Revenue will decline 0.3% in 2017 due to strong rises in the TWI. During this period, increasing corporate profit will allow for greater private R&D spending, which will facilitate product innovatio n and industry revenue growth. Furthermore, operators will benefit from a rebound in government consumption and investment, allowing for greater demand in the segment. Continued strong demand from downstream markets and emerging markets, such as energy, will also contribute to the industry’s projected growth. For example, the government has also provided tax grants 021417wsa HC BOC Page 149 Impact Greater Fayetteville 136 to enterprises that operate in renewable energy, such as solar and wind. Government incentives will enable these industries to expand in the next five years, and their operations will require testing and measuring devices provided by industry operators. However, growing international competition and lower economic prospects in certain export regions will hamper growth. 33592 Wire and Cable Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures insulated nonferrous wire and cable and fiber optic cable used for power transmission and communication. This industry does not manufacture nonferrous wire or unsheathed fiber-optic materials, and instead uses wire and optical fiber manufactured by companies outside the industry. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Trade-weighted index  World price of copper  Demand from broadcasting and telecommunications  Government consumption and investment  Value of private nonresidential construction  Consumer spending KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Having contracts with large customers  Establishment of export markets  Undertaking technical research and development  Guaranteed supply of key inputs  Economies of scale O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, improving economic conditions are expected to further stimulate downstream demand for wire and cable. An anticipated rise in per capita disposable income will result in greater consumer spending on electrical goods and appliances, driving rising demand for electrical wires from downstream consumer goods manufacturers. Additionally, as the population continues to rise, increased demand for power will continue to stimulate rising private and public expenditure and investment in power infrastructure, driving downstream utilities sector demand for power transmission wire and cable. Furthermore, increasing construction activity and rising telecommunications sector s pending on wireless connectivity are expected to sustain growing demand for building and fiber -optic cable. In addition to rising downstream demand for industry products, world copper prices are projected to increase, positively impacting revenue. The Wire and Cable Manufacturing industry revenue is projected to increase at an annualized rate of 1.5% to reach $13.6 billion over the five years to 2021. Despite this positive trend, revenue growth will continue to be constrained by high import penetration, as both offshoring of manufacturing operations to low-wage countries and the further appreciation of the US dollar are anticipated to continue over the outlook period. 33593 Wire Device Manufacturing DEFINITION Companies in this industry manufacture current-carrying wiring devices and noncurrent-carrying wiring devices for wiring electrical circuits. These include products such as outlet and switch electrical wiring boxes, electrical insulators, transmission pole and line 021417wsa HC BOC Page 150 Impact Greater Fayetteville 137 hardware, electrical metallic tubes, switches, conductor connectors, electric sockets, plugs and electric cords. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from electricians  Demand from electrical equipment manufacturing  Housing starts  Industrial production index  Trade-weighted index  World price of copper KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having links with suppliers  Establishment of export markets  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Economies of scale  Effective quality control  Control of distribution arrangements O UTLOOK The Wiring Device Manufacturing industry is expected to continue benefiting from improved economic conditions over the next five years. Construction activity, consumer spending and private investment are all expected to increase over the period. Furthermore, an increase in domestic demand from downstream industries and a rise in exports will also contribute to the industry’s improved performance. As a result of these trends, industry revenue is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 4.4% to $19.8 billion in the five years to 2020, including a 5.5% increase in 2016 alone. From a cost perspective, industry consolidation among the larger and medium sized players will raise productivity and keep labor co sts in check due to streamlining production. Thus, while total industry employment will increase at a five - year average annual rate of 2.8% to total 46,985 workers by 2020; industry wages as a percentage of revenue will go from 14.4% in 2015 to 13.6% in 2020. 33641 Aircraft, Engine, and Parts Manufacturing DEFINITION Companies in this industry manufacture and overhaul complete aircraft, develop prototypes and convert aircraft. The industry also includes the manufacture, conversion and overhaul of aircraft engines and propulsion systems. Additionally, the industry makes related parts and auxiliary equipment. For information on guided missiles, space vehicles and related equipment, which are excluded from this industry, see Space Vehicle and Missile Manufactu ring industry (IBISWorld report 33641b). KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from air transportation  Federal funding for defense  Non-NATO defense spending  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Economies of scope  Well-developed internal processes  Establishment of export markets  Ability to accommodate environmental requirements  Economies of scale  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques O UTLOOK Over the next five years the Aircraft, Engine and Parts Manufacturing industry will reach new altitudes. Rising domestic and international demand for air travel will create strong 021417wsa HC BOC Page 151 Impact Greater Fayetteville 138 demand for more commercial aircraft and associated parts. In addition, airl ines will seek to replace older models with newer, more fuel-efficient ones. However, weak US military spending will continue to put pressure of defense contractors. Nonetheless, increased military hardware exports and a leveling off of the defense budget should ease this pressure. Therefore, in the five years to 2021, industry revenue is forecast to climb at an annualized rate of 4.2% to $296.5 billion. 33641 Space Vehicle and Missile Manufacturing DEFINITION The Space Vehicle and Missile Manufacturing industry consists of businesses involved in the manufacture of guided missiles and space vehicles, including the development of prototypes and the manufacture and development of parts, propulsion units and support equipment used in guided missiles and space vehicles. This industry does not produce satellites. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Federal funding for defense  Non-NATO defense spending  Technological change for the space vehicle and missile industry  Demand from satellite telecommunications providers  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Well-developed internal processes  Ability to take advantage of government subsidies and other grants  Ability to expand and curtail operations rapidly in line with market demand  Economies of scale  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques O UTLOOK Over the next five years, the Space Vehicle and Missile Manufacturing industry will slowly liftoff. More stable government funding and development of next generation missile systems will boost revenue growth, while NASA funds further space programs. Moreover, climbing defense spending in emerging markets and continued geopolitical tensions will strengthen demand for missile exports. Industry competition will also intensify as new players continue to enter the market, while the commercial segment expands. At the same time, government funding will remain constrained, tempering demand and endangering industry programs. Therefore, over the five years to 2021, industry revenue is forecast to climb an annualized 2.1% to $30.8 billion. 33699 Tank and Armored Vehicle Manufacturing DEFINITION This US industry manufactures complete military armored vehicles, combat tanks and specialized components for combat tanks, including self-propelled weapons. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Federal funding for defense  Non-NATO defense spending  World price of steel  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Provision of superior after sales service  Undertaking technical research and development 021417wsa HC BOC Page 152 Impact Greater Fayetteville 139  Financial structure of the company  Establishment of export markets  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Experienced work force O UTLOOK Over the next five years, the Tanks and Armored Vehicle Manufacturing industry will stabilize and expand as defense spending cuts on industry programs reverse. Operators will still face heavy fire, as the United States further scales down combat operations in Afghanistan and the government attempts to reduce the deficit, with spending on tanks and armored vehicles will remain pressured. However, these cuts are anticipated to reverse, with funding for industry programs expected to grow over 5.0% each year after 2016. Additionally, industry ex ports are projected to climb as geopolitical tensions continue to generate foreign demand for US arms. Therefore, in the five years to 2020, industry revenue is forecast to climb at an annualized 6.3% to $4.4 billion. 51121 Security Software Publishing DEFINITION This industry develops and distributes antivirus, anti-keylogger, spyware removal, encryption and firewall software. Operators in the industry may also provide consulting and technical support related to this software. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Crime rate  Private investment in computers and software  Number of mobile internet connections  Number of broadband connections  Price of computers and peripheral equipment  Government consumption and investment KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Undertaking technical research and development  Access to highly skilled workforce  Protection of patents  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Access to retail distribution channels O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, revenue for the Security Software Publishing industry is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 5.0% to $16.1 billion, starting with a 5.4% jump in 2017. New opportunities in mobile will continue to drive industry growth as consumers migrate away from their desks to portable computing devices, such as smartphones and tablets, forcing security software to adapt to protect new devices. Additionally, with computing technology evolving at a rapid pace, the prevalence and complexity of cyber -attacks will grow, forcing consumers and businesses to invest more in security software. However, slowed corporate profit growth will lead to slow growth in private investment for computers and software. Moreover, growth in the number of mobile internet connections is also expected to slow. 51721 Wireless Telecommunications Carriers DEFINITION This industry operates and maintains switching and transmission facilities to provide direct communication through radio-based cellular networks. Industry services include cellular mobile phone services, paging services, wireless internet access and wireless video services. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 153 Impact Greater Fayetteville 140 KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of mobile internet connections  Percentage of services conducted online  Per capita disposable income  Price of semiconductor and electronic components KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Developing close relationships in other industries  Ready access to investment funding  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Having a high profile in the market  Exclusive product sales contracts  Economies of scale O UTLOOK The Wireless Telecommunications Carriers industry is well positioned for future growth. Expanding demand for wireless data services is anticipated to offset declining demand for voice-only services, particularly as more broadband-enabled mobile devices, such as tablet computers and e-readers, achieve wider penetration. Over the five years to 2021, the number of wireless subscribers is expected to continue increasing. As a result, revenue is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.2% over the next five years, reaching $300.1 billion in 2021. The battle to establish a dominant fourth-generation (4G) technology appears to have come to an end. Verizon and AT&T have settled on long-term evolution (LTE) as their preferred 4G technology, and Sprint-Nextel has also indicated that it will be transitioning from WiMax, a wireless technology similar to Wi-Fi that travels faster and further, to LTE. The emergence of LTE as the dominant 4G wireless technology is expected to enable a more rapid transition by consumers to 4G devices and continue encouraging households to let go of their wired service. A format war between LTE and WiMax would likely have kept many consumers from committing to either as they waited to see which standard would emerge victorious and offer the greatest service area. The speedy victory of 4G technology is expected to increase industry revenue by reducing capital costs, enabling industry operators to focus on further developing this technology instead of two separate options. 51791 Radar and Satellite Operations DEFINITION Industry operators provide specialized satellite telecommunication services such as satellite tracking, telemetry and radar station operation. They also provide terminal stations and facilities connected with terrestrial systems that transmit telecommunications to, and receive telecommunications from, satellite systems. The industry does not provide telecommunication services but works closely with those that do, reflecting high interdependence in the telecommunications sector. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from satellite telecommunications providers  Demand from satellite tv providers  Government consumption and investment  Number of broadband connections  Per capita disposable income  Private investment in computers and software KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Proximity to key markets  Ability to effectively manage debtors  Access to secure revenue  Access to highly skilled workforce  Having an integrated operation  Ability to quickly adopt new technology 021417wsa HC BOC Page 154 Impact Greater Fayetteville 141 O UTLOOK The outlook for companies in the Radar and Satellite Operations industry suggests slightly slower revenue growth. Over the five years to 2021, IBISWorld forecasts that revenue will increase at an annualized rate of 3.1% to $3.3 billion. While the industry will benefit from an expanding global economy and stability in demand from the downstream satellite telecommunications market, the industry’s revenue growth per year will trail its performance during the previous five-year period. Fortunately, the continual business and consumer need for satellite telecommunications service and repair will stretch satellite network capacity and necessitate some infrastructure upgrades and expansions. The interdependency of satellite launches and the tracking, telemetry and control (TT&C) of these satellites remain high. The limited supply of operators with the experience and technology required to perform these operations will likely allow the industry’s well-established players to increase their prices accordingly. Therefore, industry profit margins are also expected to remain stable and reach 8.4% in 2021. 54151 IT Consulting DEFINITION The IT Consulting industry includes firms that provide the following services to client companies: writing, testing and supporting custom software; planning and designing integrated hardware, software and communication infrastructure; and on -site management of computer systems and data processing facilities. This industry excludes packaged software publishers and off-site data processing and hosting services. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Private investment in computers and software  Corporate profit  Demand from finance and insurance  Government consumption and investment KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Adoption of a commercial focus  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Access to highly skilled workforce  Effective cost controls  Good project management skills O UTLOOK The IT Consulting industry is forecast to experience consistent growth over the next five years. In terms of technological trends, demand for industry services will primarily be driven by mainstream adoption of third-platform services, which encompasses cloud-based computing, big data analytics and mobile-based solutions. In terms of economic factors, industry revenue will be driven by continued growth in corporate profit, which is expected to boost private investment in computers and software, as well as increasing demand from the finance and insurance industry. Overall, the industry is projected to grow at an annualized 2.7% to $442.4 billion over the five years to 2021. Copyright © 1999-2016 IBISWorld 021417wsa HC BOC Page 155 Impact Greater Fayetteville 142 Advanced Manufacturing Cluster Definition (NAICS Codes) 32518 Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing 32519 Organic Chemical Manufacturing 33231 Structural Metal Product Manufacturing 33271 Machine Shop Services 33272 Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing 33512 Lighting Fixtures Manufacturing 33531 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing 33632 Automobile Electronics Manufacturing 33635 Automobile Transmission Manufacturing Industry Vitals Targeting Recommendations The following avenues are recommendations, as targeting strategies, for Advanced Manufacturing:  National, ongoing lead generation program  Trade show marketing in conjunction with regional or state partners, for an opportunity to meet with companies, as well as, network within the industry  Email marketing and awareness campaigns to surrounding communities and states in order to create awareness of specific opportunities, within Fayetteville such as industry park developments, available sites, and incentives Initial target lists can be built from online resources such as Hoovers, Avention, InfoUSA, and industry associations. As lists are built, we search for companies fitting the target using industry codes and business descriptions. The company research process evaluates each company, as well as, their fit with Fayetteville assets, benefits and culture. Selected industry associations relevant to this target include:  National Electrical Manufacturers Association – www.nema.org  Society of Chemical Manufacturers and Affiliates – www.socma.com  Specialty and Agro Chemicals America – www.chemicalsamerica.com  Precision Metalforming Association – www.pma.org  Electronic Components Industry Association – www.ecianow.org  Original Equipment Suppliers Association – www.oesa.org 021417wsa HC BOC Page 156 Impact Greater Fayetteville 143 Segment Summaries 32518 Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry produces inorganic chemicals including titanium dioxide, chloralkali products and carbon black. Inorganic chemicals are mineral based, while organic chemicals are carbon based (see 32519 Organic Chemical Manufacturing). Inorganic chemicals are mainly used as inputs in manufacturing and industrial processes. Inorganic chemicals are used as pigments and dyes (32513) or pesticides (32532) are not included in this industry. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Industrial production index  Housing starts  Price of electric power  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having contracts that are favorable to the purchaser  Economies of scale  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Establish relationships with downstream industries  Must comply with government regulations O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, IBISWorld expects the Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing industry to slowly expand, as downstream industries grow. As the housing sector improves, demand from the construction, paint and glass manufacturing sectors will drive sales growth. The American Chemistry Council estimates that the chemical business impacts more than 96.0% of all goods manufactured in the United States, so moderate industrial production will fuel demand for industry products. Consequently, in the five years to 2021, IBISWorld expects industry revenue to grow an annualized 2.1% to $39.2 billion, beginning with a 2.2% growth in revenue in 2017. 32519 Organic Chemical Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures basic organic chemicals (other than petrochemicals), industrial gases and synthetic dyes and pigments. Key product groups include gum and wood products, cyclic crudes and intermediates, ethyl alcohol and other basic organic chemica ls. These products are predominantly intermediates that are used as raw material inputs by other manufacturing industries in the production of downstream products. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Industrial production index  Trade-weighted index  World price of crude oil  Consumer spending  Value of construction KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Comply with government regulations  Ability to accommodate environmental requirements  Having contracts that are favorable to purchaser  Having a diverse range of clients  Degree of globalization in the firm O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, revenue for the Organic Chemical Manufacturing industry is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2% to $171.6 billion. The industry will experience a rise in demand as key buying markets (e.g. cosmetic and beauty products 021417wsa HC BOC Page 157 Impact Greater Fayetteville 144 manufacturing and rubber manufacturing) increase purchases. As disposable income grows, rising consumer demand for beauty products will underpin this trend. Additionally, exp orts will rise as steady economic growth in developing nations propels demand for consumer and construction-related goods, which use organic chemicals produced by this industry. However, raw material price volatility and government legislation in the form of security, environmental, safety and health regulations will pose threats to future performance. 33231 Structural Metal Products Manufacturing DEFINITION Operators in this industry manufacture structural metal products such as reinforcing bars, bar joists, railway bridge sections, dam gates, transmission tower sections and railroad car racks. They also manufacture metal plate work, such as bins, culverts, hoods, ladles and containment vessels, as well as prefabricated metal buildings. The majority of industry products are used in nonresidential building and utility construction. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Value of private nonresidential construction  World price of steel  Government funding for highways  Value of utilities construction  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Availability of resources  Ability to vary services to suit different needs  Having a diverse range of clients  Economies of scale  Proximity to key markets O UTLOOK The Structural Metal Product Manufacturing industry is expected to improve over the five years to 2021, propelled by steady nonresidential construction and recovering steel prices. In turn, revenue is estimated to increase at an annualized rate of 3.6% over the period to $53.6 billion, beginning with an estimated 3.3% increase in 2017. Still, as domestic demand picks up, the industry is likely to experience rising competition from Chinese manufacturers who will continue to be the largest steel producers in the world due to highly cost -efficient production. Import competition will propel continual innovation and restructuring within the industry, including increased attention to cost efficiency and vertical integration. 33271 Machine Shop Services DEFINITION The Machine Shop Services industry cuts raw materials into specified shapes and sizes using a variety of tools, such as lathes, milling machines, grinders and drill presses. Almost all forms of metal product fabrication involve machining, and industry operators may also machine plastic and composite materials. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Industrial production index  Demand from metal stamping and forging  Demand from car and automobile manufacturing  Demand from machinery manufacturing  Aggregate private investment  World price of steel  Federal funding for defense KEY SUCCESS FACTORS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 158 Impact Greater Fayetteville 145  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Effective quality control  Access to multiskilled and flexible workforce  Ability to vary services to suit different needs O UTLOOK In the five years to 2021, the Machine Shop Services industry is expected to build on its recent growth due to the continued expansion of most of its major downstream markets. With the exception of defense spending, indicators of downstream demand are forecast to improve over the next five years. As a result, industry revenue is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% to $44.7 billion over the five years to 2021. 33272 Screw, Nut, & Bolt Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures metal fastening products that can be divided into two groups. Precision fastening products are custom made for a particular project or customer. Alternatively, metal bolt, nut, screw, rivet, washer and industrial fastening products are fabricated to an industry standard and are designed for the wider market. This industry does not manufacture plastic fastening products. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Industrial production index  Value of construction  World price of steel  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having a diverse range of clients  Having links with suppliers  Effective cost controls  Development of new products  Degree of globalization in the firm  Effective quality control O UTLOOK The Screw, Nut and Bolt Manufacturing industry has been growing due to the resurgence of key manufacturing and construction industries. In the five years to 2021, growth will continue to be heavily driven by an increase in aircraft and automotive demand and foreign demand for precision products. The shift to precision products will also keep profit healthy despite rising imports and increasing saturation of the domestic and global market for fasteners. IBISWorld expects industry revenue to grow an annualized 2.8% during the period to $32.9 billion, beginning with 5.0% growth in 2017 due to recovering steel input prices. 33512 Lighting Fixtures Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures electric lighting fixtures, nonelectric lighting equipment, lighting fixture components and lampshades made of metal, paper or textiles. The industry excludes establishments that manufacture light bulbs and tubes, glass lighting fixtures, vehicular lighting equipment, current-carrying wiring devices and lampshades made of plastic. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Value of private nonresidential construction  Housing starts  Government funding for highways  Import penetration into the manufacturing sector  Per capita disposable income  Trade-weighted index 021417wsa HC BOC Page 159 Impact Greater Fayetteville 146 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having links with suppliers  Access to niche markets  Production of goods currently favored by the market  Production of premium goods/services  Economies of scale  Having a wide and expanding product range O UTLOOK The world is in the midst of a “green” transition, in which consumers are increasingly seeking more energy-efficient items to reduce their environmental impact and save money. In response to consumer interest, operators will continue to refine existing lighting fixture designs, while also developing new technologies to accommodate demand for more environmentally friendly products. In the past, the transition to energy-efficient products has been led by strong demand for LED fixtures, driven by governmental regulation to eliminate incandescent light bulb manufacturing. The switch to LED and other energy-efficient products is expected to continue in the next five years to 2021, driving growth in the industry by annualized rate of 0.6% to $11.9 billion in 2021. According to a McKinsey study entitled Lighting the way: Perspectives on the global lighting market, by 2020, LED products are expected to account for 70.0% of the global market. As energy efficiency and cost savings continues to spur demand for LED’s and the market becomes saturated, revenue growth is expected to slow. To maintain revenue, companies will have to develop new energy-efficient technology to continue to drive demand and differentiate their products from low-costs imports. 33531 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing DEFINITION This industry manufactures power, distribution and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators and motor-generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls. Electrical equipment manufacturers sell their products to othe r manufacturing industries, wholesalers and the construction sector. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from manufacturing  Industrial production index  Demand from building, developing and general contracting  Electric power consumption KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Business expertise of operators  Adoption of latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Access to high quality control  Economies of scale O UTLOOK Greater demand for energy-efficient electrical equipment will drive the Electrical Equipment Manufacturing industry forward over the five years to 2021, albeit slowly. Expected upgrades in electrical infrastructure will also stimulate demand for industry products over the period. As a result, revenue is projected to modestly rise at an average annual rate of 0.7% to $41.3 billion over the next five years, including a 0.5% increase in 2017. Industry growth will continue to be constrained by high import penetration, which will be further encouraged by the appreciation of the US dollar. 33632 Automobile Electronics Manufacturing 021417wsa HC BOC Page 160 Impact Greater Fayetteville 147 DEFINITION This industry manufactures motor vehicle parts that have or operate with the aid of small components that control and direct an electric current. Industry operators include manufacturers of lighting systems, electrical wiring, electrical control units, sensors, electronic ignition systems and driver displays. Manufacturers of electric motors are excluded. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from car and automobile manufacturing  New car sales  World price of crude oil  Consumer Confidence Index  National unemployment rate  Trade-weighted index KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access of the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Effective cost controls  Undertaking technical research and development  Degree of globalization  Ability to control stock on hand O UTLOOK The Automobile Electronics Manufacturing industry is expected to recede from its previously strong growth over the five years to 2021. While industry revenue is projected to continue to be strong, several factors are anticipated to facilitate a minor decline. The unemployment rate is expected to grow slightly, as it has been hovering near its lower rate. This, in combination with prolonged slow economic growth, is expected to cause consumer confidence to decline. Consumers are far more likely to buy a vehicle that contains substantial automobile electronics when they are employed and have a positive outlook for future income. The amount of new car sales is forecast to decline an annualized 1.3% over the period, limiting demand from automakers for industry parts. Conversely, the industry will be supported by an increase in revenue per new car as vehicles are manufactured with a larger portion of electronic parts. As a result, industry revenue is anticipated to decline at an annualized rate of 0.7% to $26.7 billion over the five years to 2021. 33635 Automobile Transmission Manufacturing DEFINITION Companies in this industry manufacture transmissions for motor vehicles (cars and light, medium and heavy-duty trucks), parts for transmissions and powertrain parts. Industry products include clutches, gears, differentials and axle bearings. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from car and automobile manufacturing  Trade-weighted index  Consumer Confidence Index  Regulation for the automotive sector  World price of crude oil  Yield on 10-year treasury note KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access of the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Ability to accommodate environmental requirements  Effective cost controls  Undertaking technical research and development  Degree of globalization of the firm 021417wsa HC BOC Page 161 Impact Greater Fayetteville 148 O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, the Automobile Transmission Manufacturing industry’s performance is expected to mirror that of the automotive industry at large. Due to the near one-to-one ratio of transmissions to automobiles, slower growth of car, truck and special purpose vehicle production is expected to have a similar effect on transmission and powertrain part manufacturers. As a result, IBISWorld estimates industry revenue will increase at an annualized rate of 2.3% to $46.4 billion in the five years to 2021. Copyright © 1999-2016 IBISWorld 021417wsa HC BOC Page 162 Impact Greater Fayetteville 149 Business Services Cluster Definition (NAICS Codes) 51121 Software Publishing 51821 Data Processing and Hosting Services 51913 Search Engines 51913 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting 52221 Credit Card Issuing 52222 Auto Leasing, Loans and Sales Financing 52232 Credit Card Processing and Money Transferring 52239 Loan Administration, Check Cashing, and Other Services 52312 Securities Brokering 52392 Portfolio Management 52393 Financial Planning and Advice 52411 Life Insurance and Annuities 52411 Health and Medical Insurance 52412 Property, Casualty and Direct Insurance 52413 Reinsurance Carriers 52429 Third-Party Administrators and Insurance Claims Adjusters 54121 Payroll and Bookkeeping Services 54121 Accounting Services 54161 Management Consulting 56145 Credit Bureaus and Rating Agencies 021417wsa HC BOC Page 163 Impact Greater Fayetteville 150 Industry Vitals Targeting Recommendations The following avenues are recommendations, as targeting strategies, for Business Services:  Email marketing and awareness campaigns to surrounding communities and states in order to create awareness of specific opportunities, within Fayetteville such as office park developments, available buildings, and incentives  National, ongoing lead generation program  Entrepreneurial development and encouraging business start-ups Initial target lists can be built from online resources such as Hoovers, Avention, InfoUSA, and industry associations. As lists are built, we search for companies fitting the target using industry codes and business descriptions. The company research process evaluates each company, as well as, their fit with Fayetteville assets, benefits and culture. Selected industry associations relevant to this target include:  comScore – www.comscore.com  The Shared Services and Outsourcing Network – www.ssonetwork.com  The Software & Information Industry Association - www.siia.net  Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association – www.sifma.org  American Council of Life Insurers – www.acli.com  Insurance Information Institute – www.iii.org 021417wsa HC BOC Page 164 Impact Greater Fayetteville 151 Segment Summaries 51121 Software Publishing DEFINITION Software publishers disseminate licenses to customers for the right to execute software on their own computers. Operators in this industry market and distribute software products and may also design the software, produce support materials and provide support services. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Private investment in computers and software  Number of mobile internet connections  Corporate profit  Demand from video games  Government consumption and investment  Percentage of households with at least one computer  Per capita disposable income KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Undertaking technical research and development  Protection of patents  Access to highly skilled workforce  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Effective marketing  Having a high profile in the market O UTLOOK The Software Publishing industry is expected to continue growing over the five years to 2021. As private investment in computers and software continues to increase, and the proportion of households with at least one computer surges to more than 90.0%, sof tware license purchases will follow suit. Increases in government spending and growth in mobile internet connections and smartphone ownership rates will also support industry growth, especially with security software. In addition, higher corporate profit among downstream industries, such as healthcare and finance, and booming demand for security products and video games are expected to strongly contribute to revenue growth. Consequently, industry revenue is forecast to increase an annualized 2.8% to $234.9 billion by 2021. Constantly improving technology and falling hardware prices will make computers, cell phones, video games and, ultimately, software more accessible to more people. Businesses will continue to use information technology to increase efficiency and security. For example, a major feature of the Obama administration’s 2010 healthcare reform plan involves supplying tax incentives for health insurers and medical professionals to switch from paper-based record systems to digital records. Finance, insurance and healthcare companies also increasingly use security software, such as fraud detection, to protect the vast amounts of data they store. Competence in software programs is expected to become a prerequisite to employment in a wide range of industries. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 165 Impact Greater Fayetteville 152 51821 Data Processing and Hosting Services DEFINITION This industry provides data processing or hosting activities. Data processing services provide specialized reports from information supplied by clients. Hosting services can include web and application hosting. Services range from automated data entry to processing data. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of mobile internet connections  Percentage of services conducted online  Demand from internet publishing and broadcasting  Corporate profit  Price of computers and peripheral equipment  Private investment in computers and software KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Effective quality control  Having a cost-effective distribution system  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Ability to manage external (outsourcing) contracts  Access to multiskilled and flexible workforce  Ensuring pricing policy is appropriate O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, the Data Processing and Hosting Services industry is expected to experience strong growth attributed to nonindustry companies’ continued outsourcing of information technology (IT) to third parties. Efforts to improve operational efficiencies, coupled with the rising costs of handing IT internally, will drive outsourcing by large companies. Moreover, the continued shift to online services will drive additional demand for industry services. As a result, IBISWorld expects industry revenue to grow at an annualized rate of 4.8% to $182.3 billion over the five years to 2021, including an increase of 4.4% in 2017 alone. 51913 Search Engines DEFINITION This industry includes enterprises that operate search engines and other types of search-based websites that display advertisements. These search engines typically provide search services for free and earn income when a user clicks on an advertising link, known as a "paid click." Websites may attract users to their search engines by offering a range of additional free services, such as e-mail, news, social networking, entertainment and other information. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 166 Impact Greater Fayetteville 153 KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of mobile internet connections  Consumer spending  Percentage of services conducted online  Total advertising expenditure  Demand from internet publishing and broadcasting KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Quick adoption of new technology  Strong branding  A highly skilled workforce  Economies of scale  Effective quality control O UTLOOK As the number of mobile internet connections and the percentage of services conducted online continue to increase, the amount of advertising money spent in the Search Engines industry is expected to rise accordingly. The increasing prominence of internet advertising will also contribute to this aggressive shift in advertising expenditure to search engine marketing. However, the extremely high growth in the mobile segment is expected to slow, consumer confidence is anticipated to drop and corporate profit growth will decelerate, which will ultimately slow growth. Industry revenue is thus expected to increase an annualized 8.0% over the five-year period, reaching $79.0 billion in 2021. Large search engines that grow their user bases and continually improve their advertising technology will capture most of this growth. Moreover, Google, Yahoo and Microsoft, the industry’s dominant players, will aggressively compete for users and advertisers in both the PC and mobile search markets. 51913 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting DEFINITION This industry includes organizations and individuals that offer nonphysical products, such as news, music and video, exclusively through the internet. Revenue in this industry is derived from the sale of advertising space or subscriptions to consumers. In addition, companies may derive revenue from intellectual property licensing and the sale of user information to third parties. This industry does not include search engines, internet service providers or publishers of offline content. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of mobile internet connections  Total advertising expenditure  Demand from search engines  Demand from television broadcasting  Internet traffic volume KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Developing a clear niche  Word of mouth recommendations  Attracting advertisers  Protection of intellectual property/copyrighting of output  Access to highly skilled workforce O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, the Internet Publishing and Broadcasting industry is projected to grow rapidly, as advertisers continue to shift resources toward internet and mobile platforms. This expected growth is largely a result of the continued influx of mobile internet connections that are expected in the United States over the five-year period and strong increases in internet traffic volume. Advertisers are expected to continue aggressively targeting internet users through social media and other content sites and applications. The internet content publishers that will benefit the most from this increased advertising expenditure are the industry’s well-established major players and smaller players that develop specialized 021417wsa HC BOC Page 167 Impact Greater Fayetteville 154 mobile applications or publish original content that pertains to a niche market. Growth in online streaming platforms, such as Netflix and Hulu, will boost revenue further. Over the five years to 2021, industry revenue is anticipated to increase at an annualized rate of 9.3% to $141.0 billion, with a 9.1% increase in 2017 alone. 52221 Credit Card Issuing DEFINITION This industry issues credit cards, providing the funds required to buy goods and services in return for payment on a full balance or installment basis. Credit cards issued in the United States are not issued directly by Visa, MasterCard or any other payment-solution organization. Rather, Visa, MasterCard and other similar corporations provide the actual payment systems used when payments are made by credit card. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Aggregate household debt  National unemployment rate  Prime rate  Households earning more than $100,000  Per capita disposable income KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to the latest available and most efficient technology and techniques  Having an extensive distribution/collection network  Effective cost controls  Production of goods currently favored by the market  Marketing of differentiated products  Market research and understanding O UTLOOK An improving economy, increased e-commerce and security and higher interest rates will help spur revenue growth for the Credit Card Issuing industry in the coming five years. In the five years to 2021, industry revenue is projected to grow an annualized 4.5% to $116.5 billion, including anticipated growth of 6.6% in 2017. E-commerce is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 10.6% over the next five years, which will further exacerbate the shift away from cash and checks towards credit card issuers. Additionally, the level of aggregate household debt is forecast to rise an annualized 4.3%, spurring higher interest income from outstanding debts. Profitability within the industry is also anticipated to increase as interest rates continue to rise, allowing companies to earn higher interest on credit issuance. Furthermore, costs associated with establishing data security should taper as operators become increasingly capable to adjust to cyber threats. As a result, the industry profit margin is forecast to incr ease from 25.0% in 2016 to 29.1% in 2021. 52222 Auto Leasing, Loans, and Sales Financing DEFINITION This industry includes establishments that provide sales financing or sales financing in combination with leasing. Sales financing establishments are primarily engaged in lending money for the purpose of providing collateralized goods through a contractual -installment sales agreement, either directly from or through arrangements with dealers. Industry participants generate revenue through the interest and fees that are included in the installment payments of borrowers. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Consumer Confidence Index  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  Corporate profit  National unemployment rate 021417wsa HC BOC Page 168 Impact Greater Fayetteville 155  Per capita disposable income  Price of new cars KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Output is sold under contract – incorporate long-term sales contracts  Well-developed internal processes  Financial position of the company  Ability to raise revenue from additional sources  Ability to carry out credit checks on clients  Access to highly skilled workforce O UTLOOK The Auto Leasing, Loans and Sales Financing industry entered a turnaround phase in the latter half of 2012, which is expected to continue over the five years to 2021. Higher consumer confidence and disposable income will drive the anticipated recovery. Consequently, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 3.3% to reach $125.4 billion over the next five years, including projected growth of 5.1% in 2017. Automobile and machinery sales are expected to rebound during the period, but persistent unemployment may hinder recovery. Rising income levels and low interest rates will encourage individuals and companies to purchase automobiles as their current vehicles age. Businesses will also be more likely to replace older machinery and equipment, thereby increasing the volume of loans and leases. An increase in customer consumption and an improving economy will raise the likelihood of borrowers making monthly payments and is expected to provide a boost to the industry’s profit margins. 52232 Credit Card Processing and Money Transferring DEFINITION This industry offers financial transaction processing, reserve and liquidity services and check or other financial instrument clearinghouse services. The industry excludes electronic transactions associated with the US Federal Reserve (central bank). KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Consumer spending  Consumer Confidence Index  E-commerce sales  Per capita disposable income  Regulation for the credit card processing and money transferring industry KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to the latest and most efficient technology and techniques  Low operating costs  Use of specialist equipment or facilities  Ability to effectively change community behavior  Economies of scale  Comply with government regulations O UTLOOK Consumers will continue to bypass cash and perform transactions using credit cards or other electronic means, leading to higher transaction volumes for the Credit Card Processing and Money Transferring industry. IBISWorld anticipates revenue for the Credit Card Processing and Money Transferring industry to grow at an annualized rate of 3.7% to $93.5 billion in the five years to 2021. Over this period, the growing popularity of electronic payment methods, due to the growing online retail and e-commerce market, will drive industry growth. Consumer spending will rise as a result of easily accessible payment methods and markets, increasing 021417wsa HC BOC Page 169 Impact Greater Fayetteville 156 transaction volumes. The industry's client base will continue to grow as more merchants rely on credit cards and other electronic methods for payment from customers. As a result, growth will continue steadily through 2016 and is expected to increase 4.0% in 2017. In addition, continued declines in paper check use and cash transactions are anticipated to support industry growth. Most transactions are now conducted electronically, with 59.0% of all transactions made with a credit or debit card, and only 15.0% made with checks according to a 2013 Federal Reserve study on payment trends in the United States. Check activity is proje cted to steadily decline as consumers and businesses increasingly prefer electronic payment methods for their speed and flexibility. 52239 Loan Administration, Check Cashing, and Other Services DEFINITION The Loan Administration, Check Cashing and Other Services industry services loans, most notably mortgages. This industry does not originate loans, which includes legally arranging and issuing the loan. Servicing loans includes performing all of the administrative aspects of managing a debt portfolio. Operators also perform money transmission services, which include selling and cashing traveler’s checks, money orders and cashier’s checks, as well as renting safe - deposit boxes. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from real estate loans and collateralized debt  House price index  Prime rate  Consumer Confidence Index  Housing starts KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Experienced work force  Having links with suppliers  Ability to effectively manage risk  Well-developed internal processes  Ability to constantly blend new technology with services O UTLOOK The Loan Administration, Check Cashing & Other Services industry is forecast to expand at a steady pace over the next five years as a result of new loan activity, which had been severely hurt by the subprime fallout and the subsequent decline in home prices. Rising home prices will lead to renewed demand for mortgages as consumers’ trust in real estate investments renews. The rise in demand will increase operators’ ability to acquire mortgage- servicing rights and the associated fees. IBISWorld estimates home prices will increase at an annualized rate of 2.5% over the five years to 2021. In light of these conditions, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 3.8% to $134.5 billion in the five years to 2021. Rising consumer sentiment, which measures consumers’ level of optimism about their own financial situation and the economy, will encourage spending on big-ticket items that require loans (e.g. home mortgages) and drive industry revenue. Increased demand from loan servicing and the benefit of technological integration is also expected to improve margins for operators in this industry. A decline in delinquencies and a rise in the prime rate will increase the fees the industry generates. IBISWorld expects profit to increase from 16.4% of revenue in 2016 to 17.5% in 2021. Nonetheless, as industry participants take advantage of technological advancements that improve the automation of their processes, especially within the check cashing segment of this industry, new regulatory compliance costs 021417wsa HC BOC Page 170 Impact Greater Fayetteville 157 and a significant decrease in subprime lending, which yields higher fees, will hamper further growth of profit margins. Moreover, the number of mergers and acquisitions will settle down as companies grow revenue through increased demand for mortgage originations and innovation, as opposed to absorbing the competition. Over the next five years, the number of enterprises is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 1.2% to 36,149 companies. Employment is estimated to increase at an annualized rate of 1.7% to 634,164 workers, as companies rehire employees due to rising servicing demand. 52312 Securities Brokering DEFINITION Companies in this industry execute securities buyers’ orders by acting as agents that arrange transactions between buyers and sellers on a commission or transaction -fee basis. The Securities Brokering industry continues to converge with various other securities and banking industries due to regulatory, technological and market trends. However, this report excludes investment banking, securities dealing and commercial banking activities. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  S&P 500  Investor uncertainty  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  Demand from open-end investment funds  Personal savings rate  Regulation for the investment management industries KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Must comply with government regulations  Well-developed internal processes  Market research and understanding  Access to highly skilled workforce  Provision of a related range of goods/services (one-stop shop)  Ability to quickly adopt new technology O UTLOOK The Securities Brokering industry’s revenue is forecast to grow an annualized 1.6% to $155.3 billion over the five years to 2021. Rising interest rates will attract more investors to debt instruments, increasing securities trading volumes and, as a result, industry commissions and fees. While initially driving away retail investors, or individuals who trade on the ir own account, financial market volatility will ultimately result in higher demand for investment advice to both protect and build wealth. As a result, a large portion of revenue growth will be based on expansion of activities outside securities brokerage, such as investment advice. Over the next five years, a number of long-term trends will support steady growth in financial market activity and trading volume. US investors will be attracted to overseas securities due to the continued globalization of financial markets, cross-border mergers of stock exchanges and the prospect of strong growth in emerging markets. Additionally, rising disposable incomes and retirement savings will boost the share of securities in household asset portfolios, particularly through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. In turn, continued growth in these open-end investment funds, which provide retail investors with access to diverse markets, will increase securities trading volumes. While future growth in alternative trading systems is likely to keep hampering revenue from institutional investors, or investors who trade on behalf of organizations, growth in trading activity and asset inflows from retail investors should still increase overall revenue. This trend 021417wsa HC BOC Page 171 Impact Greater Fayetteville 158 will likely decrease institutional trade volume as a share of brokerage revenue through 2021, as technology drives brokerage trading fees down and enables institutions to engage in direct trading with each other, eliminating the need for securities brokers as intermed iaries. Trade commission revenue will also likely bottom out. 52392 Portfolio Management DEFINITION The industry comprises firms that actively manage assets for clients. Portfolio managers have the authority to make investment decisions and generate reven ue through fees that are based on service and portfolio performance. Industry operators manage assets for investment vehicles such as mutual funds, hedge funds and variable insurance products. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVE RS  S&P 500  Per capita disposable income  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  External competition for the portfolio management industry KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having an extensive distribution/collection network  Highly trained workforce  Having a high prior success rate  Having a good reputation  Ability to adapt technology infrastructure to meet new compliance and reporting requirements  Ability to offer new products and services to meet changing customer tastes O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, the performance of the Portfolio Management industry is anticipated to benefit from a number of long-term, structural trends. The aging of the domestic population is assisting the growth of mutual funds, pension funds and other collective investment schemes. As a growing number of individuals approach retirement age, the value of assets in pension plans and other forms of retirement savings is anticipated to increase. Additionally, interest rates, which have been effectively held down to the zero lower bound b y the Federal Reserve since late 2008, are anticipated to increase in mid -2015, causing the value of industry assets under management (AUM) to increase over time. Moreover, the technology - driven globalization of the industry will also enable portfolio managers to continue diversifying into emerging markets. Moderate growth anticipated in both the S&P 500 and the MSCI World index will underpin improvements in portfolio performance across actively managed funds, drawing in a significant number of investors. These inflows, combined with rising bond yields, are forecast to cause industry revenue to rise at an annualized rate of 2.3% over the five years to 2021 to $281.2 billion, which includes expected growth of 2.6% in 2017. 52393 Financial Planning and Advice DEFINITION This industry comprises companies that provide financial planning, financial advice and wealth management to individuals and business clients. Operators also offer advice, in conjunction with other activities such as portfolio management, protection planning and brokerage services. This industry does not include mutual fund companies, hedge funds, 021417wsa HC BOC Page 172 Impact Greater Fayetteville 159 discount brokers, insurance brokers or other companies that deliver these services, outside the context of a written financial plan. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Per capita disposable income  S&P 500  Investor uncertainty  Median age of population  Households earning more than $100,000  Regulation for the investment management industries KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having a loyal customer base  Have a good reputation  Experienced work force  Market research and understanding O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, increased market valuations for various types of assets and securities are expected to push industry revenue growth at an annualized rate of 3.0% to $56.2 billion. As the economy continues to recover, the number of wealthy households and institutions needing financial management services will also increase, raising the value of assets under management (AUM) for firms. The majority of this growth is expected to go to existing firms, rather than the limited number of new operators breaking into the industry. In 2017, total industry revenue is estimated to rise 3.9%. Rising interest rates, geopolitical tensio n and inflation over the next year are anticipated to encourage consumers to consult professional services for managing their finances and protecting their assets. 52411 Life Insurance and Annuities DEFINITION Operators within this industry are primarily engaged in accepting liability under annuities and life, disability income and accidental death and dismemberment insurance policies. Enterprises within this industry include fraternal organizations, privately held insurers, publicly traded insurers and mutual insurance companies. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Median age of population  Per capita disposable income  Number of employees  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  S&P 500 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Financial strength  Must comply with government regulations  Effective asset management  Having an extensive distribution network  Effective cost controls O UTLOOK Growth in household wealth and an aging domestic population are anticipated to boost demand levels for the Life Insurance and Annuities industry over the five years to 2021. Downstream consumers are expected to increasingly use life insurance and annuity products for asset protection and retirement purposes over the five-year period. Additionally, as the outlook for sustainable social welfare programs is anything but certain, households are expected to share a larger burden of their retirement and estate planning needs, benefiting 021417wsa HC BOC Page 173 Impact Greater Fayetteville 160 industry demand. Furthermore, as the economy improves, investment income for industry operators is forecast to rise due to improvements in equity markets and interest rate increases. As a result of these trends, industry revenue is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 2.3% to $989.5 billion over the five years to 2021, with an anticipated 2.8% increase in 2017 alone. Profitability is expected to improve over the five-year period, as the Federal Reserve’s latest aim is to increase interest rates to 2.4% by 2018. Due to these rising interest rates, industry operators will generate higher returns on fixed income, boosting investment income. Furthermore, insurers are anticipated to benefit from a decline in delinquency rates an d lower asset write-downs on mortgage and other debt-related securities. This trend is important because many life insurers built up a large portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and other collateralized debt obligations during the housing boom and have been slow to divest these products. By 2021, the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 7.1%. 52411 Health and Medical Insurance DEFINITION This industry underwrites (i.e. assumes the risks of and assigns premiums for) health and medical insurance policies. Insurance is the transfer of the risk of a loss in exchange for payment. Operators also provide administrative services for self-funded insurance plans (whereby an employer provides health benefits to workers with its own funds). Under this structure, the industry operator is a third-party administrator and is not responsible for health benefit payments. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Total health expenditure  Number of employees  Median age of population  Number of physician visits  Per capita disposable income KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Having an extensive distribution/collection network  Having a good reputation  Ability to pass on cost increases  Must comply with government regulations  Effective cost controls  Ability to raise revenue from additional sources O UTLOOK Medical cost inflation and increased demand for medical insurance will dictate performance for the Health and Medical Insurance industry over the five years to 2021. Industry revenue will remain highly correlated with total health expenditure, which is expected to continue to trend upward from 2016 to 2021. However, the industry’s average profit margin is forecast to decline from 3.9% of revenue in 2016 to 3.6% in 2021, due to increased compliance costs caused by healthcare reform. Despite constrained profitability, revenue is projected to increase at an annualized 2.1% over the period, reaching $860.8 billion, largely due to increased demand caused by the same legislation. 52412 Property, Casualty, and Direct Insurance DEFINITION Operators in this industry are primarily engaged in underwriting insurance policies that protect individuals, businesses and agencies against losses that occur as a result of property damage, liability or other risks. Industry participants also protect real estate owners or 021417wsa HC BOC Page 174 Impact Greater Fayetteville creditors against losses sustained as a result of any title defect to real property. This industry does not include insurance coverage for life, disability, accidental death, dismemberment or health risks. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of motor vehicle registrations  Homeownership rate  Natural disaster index  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  Regulation for the property, casualty, and direct insurance industry  S&P 500 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Ability to effectively manage risk  Offer a range of insurance products  Management of a high quality assets portfolio  Disciplined underwriting processes  Having a cost effective distribution system  Possession of accurate information O UTLOOK The Property, Casualty and Direct Insurance industry is expected to keep pace with the overall economy over the five years to 2021, due to the resurgence in automotive sales, recovery in housing and rise in investment income. Generally, industry growth does not fluctuate dramatically with economic activity because insurance is not a discretionary purchase. However, due to the recession’s dramatic impact on investment markets and the prolonged nature of the downturn, the industry is expected to continue benefiting from growth in the broader economy. This factor is particularly true for title insurers, which were decimated by the unprecedented decline in housing transactions resulting from the subprime mortgage crisis. As a result of these trends, revenue for the industry is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 3.2% to $732.7 billion over the five years to 2021, with expected growth of 3.5% in 2017 alone. 52413 Reinsurance Carriers DEFINITION Companies in this industry specialize in assuming all or part of the risk associated with existing insurance policies originally underwritten by other insurance carriers. In other words, the primary business of participants in this industry is insuring insurance companies. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Demand from property, casualty, and direct insurance  Demand from life insurance and annuities  Natural disaster index  Yield on 10-year Treasury note  S&P 500 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Disciplined underwriting processes  Ability to effectively manage risk  MUST COMPLY WITH GOVE RNMENT REGULATIONS  DEGREE OF GLOBALIZATI ON IN THE FIRM  POSSESSION OF ACCURAT E INFORMATION O UTLOOK Over the five years to 2021, Reinsurance Carriers industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 3.4% to $56.6 billion. In the early part of the five -year period, the industry will benefit from rising premium prices and interest rate hikes, leading revenue to increase 3.9% in 2017. In the later years of the period, premium prices are anticipated to soften, but increased investment income from rising interest rates and stock prices will help to offset some of the profit-eroding effects. Due to the increased frequency and severity of global 021417wsa HC BOC Page 175 Impact Greater Fayetteville 162 weather catastrophes, success within the Reinsurance Carriers industry will depend more heavily on underwriting discipline, or pricing risk adequately, and capital management. Reinsurance carriers will focus these critical activities on adjusting their businesses to contend with mass capital depletion in the event of a natural disaster. This process will involve revising pricing policies and renewing expansion in alternative financing strategies such as CAT bonds. 52429 Third-Party Administrators and Insurance Claim Adjusters DEFINITION Operators in this industry investigate, appraise and settle insurance claims; provide third-party administration services of insurance and pension funds; and offer insurance advisory and ratemaking services. This industry does not include companies that primarily provide portfolio management services, sell insurance policies or offer actuarial consulting services. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of employees  Per capita disposable income  Natural disaster index  S&P 500 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to highly skilled workforce  Undertaking technical research and development  Ability to vary services to suit different needs  DEGREE OF GLOBALIZATI ON IN THE FIRM  AUTOMATION – REDUCES COSTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE ASSOCIATED WI TH LABOR O UTLOOK Expansion and regulation in downstream insurance and employee -benefit fund markets will increase outsourcing to the Third-Party Administrators and Insurance Claims Adjusters industry, driving growth over the five years to 2021. Therefore, IBISWorld estimates that industry revenue will increase at an average annual rate of 2.5% to $234.2 billion over the five years to 2021. Downstream demand for industry services will be also be bolstered by higher employment levels, which raises the number of funds and plan participants, as well as higher disposable income levels, which increases the likelihood that consumers will purchase insurance. Meanwhile, new financial-sector regulations stemming from the financial crisis will raise compliance costs and pressure profitability for employee-benefit and insurance funds, which will consequently increase outsourcing to industry operators over the next five years. Moreover, rising downstream demand will attract more companies and individua ls to the industry, but heightened competition will put downward pressure on profit margins. Consequently, the average industry profit margin is expected to decline from 10.0% in 2016 to 8.7% in 2021. Nevertheless, the industry will also benefit from a strengthening economy. Insurance policy volumes will rise, particularly within the business sector, which will support a revival in demand for claims adjustment services. In particular, rising medical costs for downstream health and medical insurers (IBISWorld report 52411b); higher weather-related losses for general insurers driven by climate change (IBISWorld report 52412); and higher costs for life insurers (IBISWorld report 52411a) will result in greater outsourced claims volumes and higher demand for thir d- party administration services. Advisory and risk management services will also benefit from the 021417wsa HC BOC Page 176 Impact Greater Fayetteville 163 improved economy, since businesses, insurers and individuals will be able to allocate a greater portion of income to these services to mitigate risks and hedge liabilities. Furthermore, demand from insurance and employee-benefit funds will grow as their plan participants and assets increase, along with rising employment and financial markets, leading to higher industry revenue from third-party administration services. 54121 Payroll and Bookkeeping Services DEFINITION Operators in this industry provide outsourced payroll services for clients’ employees and basic bookkeeping services are also included. However, this industry does not include tax preparation companies or certified public accountants. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Outsourcing to the business services sector  National unemployment rate  Number of businesses  Corporate profit  External competition for the payroll and business services industry KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to quality personnel management  Ability to quickly adopt new technology  Accessibility to consumers/users  Economies of scale  Ability to management external (outsourcing) contracts O UTLOOK Industry growth will be driven by increasing product penetration and an expanding customer base in the five years to 2021. In a climate of improving economic conditions, managers and small business operators will focus their time strategizing business acti vity and expansion plans, decreasing their focus on administrative tasks such as payroll and bookkeeping. Many businesses will prefer to outsource payroll services in order to focus on core competencies. Furthermore, an improving labor market will provide the Payroll and Bookkeeping Services industry with a platform for growth, given the rising number of businesses and employees. Over the five years through 2021, the number of businesses in the United States is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 0.8%, which will drive down the national unemployment rate. Consequently, in the five years to 2021, IBISWorld projects that revenue will increase at an annualized rate of 3.5% to $86.2 billion. 54121 Accounting Services DEFINITION Firms in this industry are certified to audit the accounting records of public and private organizations and to demonstrate compliance to generally accepted accounting practices. Certified public accountants (CPAs), included in this industry, provide a variety of accounting services, including auditing accounting records, designing accounting systems, preparing financial statements, developing budgets and providing advice on matters related to accounting. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Corporate profit  Initial public offerings  Demand from finance and insurance  Number of businesses  Number of adults ages 20 to 64 021417wsa HC BOC Page 177 Impact Greater Fayetteville 164 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Access to highly skilled workforce  Having a good reputation  Effective quality control  Maintenance of excellent client relations  Having a clear market position  Ability to compete on tender O UTLOOK The Accounting Services industry is expected to experience stronger demand over the next five years as overall business activity improves. Increased corporate profit and business sentiment will cause aggregate private investment to increase and create higher demand for traditional accounting services like auditing and corporate tax assistance. Furthermore, increased corporate activity, including mergers and acquisitio ns (M&As) and initial public offerings (IPOs), will spur growth for industry services. Additionally, the industry is expected to benefit from rising demand for advisory services, such as consulting on tax issues and financial transactions. Increased consumer wealth will also drive demand from individuals seeking tax assistance; however, competitive conditions are also expected to intensify in the market for the provision of services to private citizens. Overall, the industry is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2% to $113.7 billion over the five years to 2021, because of private investment and demand growth. 54161 Management Consulting DEFINITION Management consultants advise businesses, nonprofits and public-sector agencies in the following areas: organizational design, human resources, corporate strategy, information technology strategy, marketing and sales, finances and logistics. This industry excludes establishments providing day-to-day administrative services and establishments that are concentrated in recruitment, training, public relations, market research, engineering design, computer systems design and investment advice. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Corporate profit  Aggregate private investment  Number of businesses  Government consumption and investment KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Ability to compete on tender  Well-developed internal processes  Access to highly skilled workforce  Access to niche markets  Having good working relationships with subcontracting building trade specialists O UTLOOK Over the next five years, strong macroeconomic conditions are expected to help drive growth in the Management Consulting industry. Rising corporate profit will increase business budgets and, therefore, increase spending on consulting services. Additionally, as businesses become increasingly confident in future conditions, companies are expected to increase the size of their workforces and expand investment in new facilities and operations. Investment in new capabilities will likely boost demand for process and operations management consulting, corporate strategy and organizational design. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 178 Impact Greater Fayetteville 165 Furthermore, rapid information technology developments will continue to be instrumental in developing new strategies, designs and understanding an evolving US market. Private sector investment in information technology is expected to boom and management consultants will likely pursue more solutions that incorporate computer systems. Moreover, major investment in life sciences and healthcare over the next five years will help drive growth for consultants that assist in merger and acquisition activity. Consequently, the Management Consulting industry is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.1% to $308.9 billion over the five years to 2021. Major accounting and specialized prestigious consulting firms are expected to win the majority of contracts and drive industry revenue. 56145 Credit Bureaus and Rating Agencies DEFINITION This industry comprises operators that provide information, outlooks and ratings on the credit worthiness of particular companies, individuals, securities or financial obligations. The Credit Bureaus & Rating Agencies industry can be divided into two primary groups: credit bureaus and credit rating agencies (CRAs). Credit bureaus provide services related to consumer credit information, while CRAs generally focus on businesses, governments, securities and financial markets. KEY E XTERNAL DRIVERS  Number of businesses  Aggregate household debt  National unemployment rate  S&P 500  Yield on 10-year Treasury note KEY SUCCESS FACTORS  Level of security provided/used  Access to high quality inputs  Access to highly skilled workforce  Accessibility to consumers/users O UTLOOK In the five years to 2021, the US Credit Bureaus and Rating Agencies industry’s revenue is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 2.2% to $9.6 billion. As the economy continues its recovery and the financial sector completely stabilizes, banks and other lending institutions are expected to gradually decrease lending standards some (not accounting for potential regulation changes). As standards become laxer and unemployment continues falling, consumer spending and borrowing will rise at a faster pace, which will improve the need for credit bureau services, consumer reports and credit -card marketing. At the same time, lending will get a boost from a recovery in the secondary market for structured debt instruments. Increased demand for these instruments will support demand for credit rating agency (CRA) services. Additionally, the growth of credit bureaus and CRAs will be supported by innovation and diversification, as agencies look to leverage vast amounts of information. Despite strong growth, the industry is expected to face increased scrutiny and regulation in the aftermath of the credit market crisis. In the next five years, credit rating agencies, in particular, will face added government oversight in response to their inability to foresee the risks associated with mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). In addition, larger CRAs are expected to improve transparency and credit rating procedures to regain credibility within the financial marketplace. Even with added regulation, industry agencies are projected to increase their profit margins (i.e. earnings before interest and taxes) 021417wsa HC BOC Page 179 Impact Greater Fayetteville 166 from 14.9% in 2016 to 15.2% by 2021. This rise will be driven by technological advancements, which will automate services and improve employee productivity. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 180 Impact Greater Fayetteville 167 Appendix F: Workforce Development Plan Workforce Development Plan Approach: The FSU Project Team sought to understand how the various levels of potential personnel losses at Fort Bragg will also impact the local civilian labor force, employers, and workforce training needs in the tri-county study area. This includes direct military, military-civilian, contractor, military family, and civilian adults inside and outside the gates for the three counties and larger municipalities within. The overall purpose of this plan is to demonstrate the number and types of jobs and employment sectors that will be impacted as a result of prospective military downsizings. The plan also determines the general skill requirements of job ‘replacement’ occupations as one basis for designing and providing appropriate talent development/placement and workforce re/training and education programs throughout the region utilizing all of the related military and private/public partners mentioned elsewhere in this report. More specifically, the approach included (but was not limited to) the following: Examining - Current baseline employment by sector; Military and related employment; Personnel reduction job impacts (direct, indirect, induced); Jobs and s kill requirements (by sector); and Wages. Then based on a comparison of the current skills base versus the existing and/or new jobs/businesses, determinations were made regarding which and how much additional training & education and/or job placement assistance might actually be required. The concepts and design the FSU Project Team utilized include: Implementation Recommendations – Communicate, convene and consult with key community stakeholders particularly in regional workforce/economic development and education realms (listed elsewhere); Develop coordinated and collaborative strategies and initiatives to address identified skills and other gaps; and provide assistance gaining employment or starting a business in the regional economic sectors of strength, opportunity and growth. Top Industry Sectors Impacted by Fort Bragg Personnel Reduction Scenario Scenario: Reduce military personnel by 3,000, with 1,044 associated federal civilian jobs assumed to be lost Top Ten Sectors by Employment Sector Total Regional Employment Impact * Employment and payroll of federal govt, military -4,044 Limited-service restaurants -63 021417wsa HC BOC Page 181 Impact Greater Fayetteville 168 Full-service restaurants -58 Real estate -49 Offices of physicians -37 Retail - General merchandise stores -36 Nursing and community care facilities -31 All other food and drinking places -27 Retail - Food and beverage stores -24 Personal care services -24 To recap from data found elsewhere in this report, if the maximum reduction of 3000 direct military personnel were to occur, this would likewise impact an additional 1044 associated military-civilian jobs. These losses would then impact approximately 350 - 400 ‘outside the gate’ jobs in the sectors and establishments so indicated. Most military installation towns are primarily populated by such enterprises. Spread across those many such operations in the tri- county region, it is thought that these losses could be absorbed and shifted to other similar or new work places and entities requiring this respective talent. Specific Skill Set Analyses: The occupational skills (MOS) makeup of the active duty Army service members, and military- civilians, attached to Fort Bragg involved in any reduction-in-force scenario needed to be assessed in order to better ease their potential transition to civilian employment in this tri- county region. The major and most prevalent occupational codes and skill sets were then compared to existing civilian occupations using conversion cross-walks or translators - namely O*Net Online and CareerOneStop. Then these were compared with the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for occupational match- making in key current regional and future growth sectors. For purposes of this study, it has been determined that the 5 most common military occupational specializations for Fort Bragg’s active military personnel are: Infantryman (11B); Health Care Specialist (68W); Wheeled Vehicle Repairer (63W/91B); Military Police (31B); Combat Engineer (12B); and Food Service Specialist (99B). These occupations match quite closely those identified by a survey used to publish “Military Human Capital Snapshot, Fort Bragg - Fayetteville, NC”, an assessment of the transitioning military workforce at Fort Bragg, in January 2016. As is evident from the O*Net information below, these all relate to several compatible civilian occupations across the region: 11B Infantryman (Army - Enlisted) 11-3131.00 Training and Development Managers 11-9161.00 Emergency Management Directors 13-1151.00 Training and Development Specialists Green Occupation Green 21-1092.00 Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists 33-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers 021417wsa HC BOC Page 182 Impact Greater Fayetteville 169 33-3012.00 Correctional Officers and Jailers Bright Outlook Bright Outlook 33-3051.01 Police Patrol Officers Bright Outlook 33-9032.00 Security Guards Bright Outlook 47-2061.00 Construction Laborers Bright Outlook Green Occupation 49-9043.00 Maintenance Workers, Machinery 53-1031.00 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators 53-3033.00 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers Bright Outlook 68W Health Care Specialist (Army - Enlisted) 11-9111.00 Medical and Health Services Managers Bright Outlook Bright Outlook 21-1091.00 Health Educators 29-2041.00 Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics Bright Outlook 29-2071.00 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians Bright Outlook 31-9092.00 Medical Assistants Bright Outlook 31-9097.00 Phlebotomists Bright Outlook 43-6013.00 Medical Secretaries Bright Outlook 63W Wheel Vehicle Repairer (Army - Enlisted) 49-3023.01 Automotive Master Mechanics Bright Outlook Bright Outlook 49-3023.02 Automotive Specialty Technicians Bright Outlook Green Occupation Green 49-3031.00 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists Green Occupation 91B Wheeled Vehicle Repairer (Army - Enlisted) 11-1021.00 General and Operations Managers Bright Outlook Bright Outlook Green Occupation Green 49-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers Bright Outlook Green Occupation 49-2093.00 Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment 49-2096.00 Electronic Equipment Installers and Repairers, Motor Vehicles 49-3023.01 Automotive Master Mechanics Bright Outlook 49-3023.02 Automotive Specialty Technicians Bright Outlook Green Occupation 49-3031.00 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists Green Occupation 49-3042.00 Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines 49-3053.00 Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics 49-9071.00 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Bright Outlook Green Occupation 49-9098.00 Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers Green Occupation 53-1031.00 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators 53-3032.00 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Bright Outlook Green Occupation 53-6051.07 Transportation Vehicle, Equipment and Systems Inspectors, Except Aviation Green Occupation 11-3131.00 Training and Development Managers 11-9039.02 Fitness and Wellness Coordinators Bright Outlook Bright Outlook 021417wsa HC BOC Page 183 Impact Greater Fayetteville 170 11-9151.00 Social and Community Service Managers 11-9161.00 Emergency Management Directors 11-9199.07 Security Managers Bright Outlook 11-9199.08 Loss Prevention Managers Bright Outlook 13-1151.00 Training and Development Specialists Green Occupation Green 13-1199.02 Security Management Specialists Bright Outlook 19-4092.00 Forensic Science Technicians Bright Outlook 21-1092.00 Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists 33-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers 33-1012.00 First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives 33-3011.00 Bailiffs 33-3012.00 Correctional Officers and Jailers Bright Outlook 33-3021.01 Police Detectives 33-3021.02 Police Identification and Records Officers 33-3021.03 Criminal Investigators and Special Agents 33-3021.05 Immigration and Customs Inspectors 33-3021.06 Intelligence Analysts Bright Outlook 33-3031.00 Fish and Game Wardens Green Occupation 33-3041.00 Parking Enforcement Workers 33-3051.01 Police Patrol Officers Bright Outlook 33-3051.03 Sheriffs and Deputy Sheriffs Bright Outlook 33-3052.00 Transit and Railroad Police 33-9011.00 Animal Control Workers 33-9021.00 Private Detectives and Investigators 33-9031.00 Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators 33-9032.00 Security Guards Bright Outlook 33-9091.00 Crossing Guards 33-9093.00 Transportation Security Screeners 33-9099.02 Retail Loss Prevention Specialists Bright Outlook 39-2011.00 Animal Trainers 43-4061.00 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 43-4111.00 Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan 43-9011.00 Computer Operators 43-9061.00 Office Clerks, General Bright Outlook 12B Combat Engineer (Army - Enlisted) 11-3011.00 Administrative Services Managers 47-2061.00 Construction Laborers Bright Outlook Bright Outlook Green Occupation Green 47-5031.00 Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and Blasters 94B Food Service Specialist (Army - Enlisted) 35-2012.00 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria Bright Outlook Bright Outlook 021417wsa HC BOC Page 184 Impact Greater Fayetteville 171 Source: O*Net Online - https://www.onetonline.org/crosswalk/MOC/ Fortunately, this particular military occupational skills mix shows some strong correlation with several of the tri-county Fort Bragg region’s largest civilian sectors/occupations, including growing areas in health care, transportation-related, and food service occupations. In addition, a couple of the occupational specializations within the military (and military -civilian) roles have a connection to established professional & business service industries or targeted growth and emerging sectors in this region such as defense and homeland security. These occupations also align with several degree and continuing education/certification programs offered by the th ree regional community colleges and four-year institutions. There are also military training and certification cross walks that will give college course credit for certain training received while in the Army; some functional skills sets are highly transferable. Projected Separations from Fort Bragg On an annual basis, an average of 6,000 service personnel normally separate from the US Army via Fort Bragg. While they are generally replaced with new enlistees and others, a currently unknown actual number choose to remain residing and working and spending in this region; but it is estimated that as many as 1/3 remain. Of the 6,000 annually transitioning service members, 38% or 2,400 may remain in the Fayetteville/Cumberland County metropolitan area. More importantly, 55% or 3,300 service members would remain in the region, if suitable employment were available. (HAS Report, 2016). This large labor pool of skilled workers should be an attractive proposition to other private- and public-sector employers. While not all of these separating personnel included here will seek employment in the tri - county area, this 1000-3000 of total studied separations could provide a special opportunity for local businesses and other employers to hire and retain some of these ski lled workers to meet regional workforce needs. As prior studies have indicated, many who leave the Army possess various technical/STEM skills and ‘soft’ skills including leadership, communications, reliability, project management and team work. They are also still in their prime working age. Opportunities to match employers with these individuals will exist locally via military and civilian/public ‘career transition’ entities listed and discussed below. Furthermore, this labor pool is highly educated and well-trained, when compared to the U.S. population it serves. In fact, 82.8 percent of U.S. military officers in 2010 had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 29.9 percent of the general population. 93.6 percent of enlisted soldiers had at least a high school diploma, compared to 59.5 percent of America (USDOD, 2010). Previous studies have found similar statistics for the Fort Bragg area. This connected workforce could also include working military spouses and their adult children. Jobs In addition to the active duty military personnel assigned to Fort Bragg, there are many military civilian employees (at about a 1:3 ratio), local government workers, and private sector employees in the defense and other industries that support and serve the military. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 185 Impact Greater Fayetteville 172 An internet search of US Army websites indicates that the great majority of military -civilians are employed in one of the following occupations: Army Career Programs  Accounting & Budget Medical Officer  Attorney  Medical Technology  Civil Engineering/Architecture  Nursing  Computer Engineering  Psychology  Contracting  Quality Assurance  Electrical Engineering Safety and Occupational  Human Resource Management  Cyber  Industrial Hygiene  Foreign Affairs  Information Technology  Public Affairs & Communications Media  Logistics Management  Program Management  Mechanical Engineering  Social Science, and Welfare In addition, these are similar areas of their occupational expertise:  General Administrative, Clerical, and Office Services  Natural Resources Management and Biological Sciences  Veterinary Medical Science  Legal and Kindred  Copyright, Patent, and Trademark  Physical Sciences  Library and Archives  Mathematical Sciences  Equipment, Facilities, and Services  Education  Inspection, Investigation, Enforcement, and Compliance  Quality Assurance, Inspection, and Grading  Supply  Transportation Military Spouses: According to Points of Light, across the Army there are some 710,000 active duty spouses, 93% of whom are female. An additional 500,000 spouses are married to a Reservist or National Guardsman. Recent studies have found that:  84% have some college education; 25% hold an undergraduate degree; and 10 % hold a postgraduate degree.  77% of spouses report that they want or need to work.  38% of military spouses are underemployed, compared to approximately 6% rate for civilian spouses.  Only 19% of military spouses have adequate full-time employment 021417wsa HC BOC Page 186 Impact Greater Fayetteville 173 Closer to home, it is estimated that there are approximately 26,000 (1,500 dual service) ‘active duty’ military spouses in the Sandhills/Cape Fear region. [Women make up about 24,700 of the military spouses.] So based on those numbers, there could be as many as 1 ,400 military spouses affected by the transition of 3000 active duty soldiers from Fort Bragg. Administrative assistant/secretary is the most common occupation among military spouses, followed by teacher, child care services, and nursing. The following represents additional information from a USAA study about those and other top military spouse careers and job prospects. Secretary/administrative assistant Jobs as a secretary/administrative assistant are expected to grow by 12% this decade. Military spouses looking to eventually work their way up the business ladder and earn a promotion and/or better pay, might consider a degree in business administration. Teacher One in 20 military spouses from the USAA article were teachers (pre-kindergarten through 12th grade). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects employment for kindergarten and elementary school teachers will grow by 17% between 2010 and 2020, a more optimistic prediction than the growth for high school teachers (7%) in the same timeframe. The average growth rate for all occupations is 14%. Child care worker Jobs as a child care worker are expected to grow by 20% by 2020, per the BLS. The BLS projects the U.S. will create 262,000 more child care jobs in the next eight years. The only negative: below average annual salary. Registered Nurse The nursing profession is expected to grow at a rate of 26% between 2010-2020, which is the fastest rate of all professions. The BLS expects registered nurses to gain 712,000 new jobs around the country this decade. Military spouses who are interested in this flourishing and secure field could get a leg up on the competition by looking into online nursing programs. Retail sales Jobs in retail sales (the BLS described these positions primarily in clothing, furniture, and automobiles) are expected to grow by 17% from 2010 to 2020. Waiter/Waitress The employment outlook for waiters and waitresses is expected to grow by 9% (below average) by 2020. Many spouses (male and female) with a college education work in the education and healthcare industries. Almost every military town or a nearby city including Fayetteville and the tri-county Bragg region have a large school system and/or hospital(s). Banking is another good alternative. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 187 Impact Greater Fayetteville 174 Given all of this, the 1000 or so military spouses that might be impacted by a loss of 3000 soldiers have the types of needed jobs and skills in the kinds of needed sectors in the local economy that should be able to be sustained and utilized. The employment impact of a military asset such as Fort Bragg is spread out across virtually all sectors, albeit to differing degrees. According to other reports, the Professional and Technical Services sector usually has the most military-supported jobs; other major sectors include Administrative and Waste Services, Construction, Retail Trade, and Health Care and Social Assistance. This is the case here in the Fort Bragg region as well. Again, because of the maximum potential loss of 3000 soldiers and 1000 military-civilians under the worst case scenario studied here, it is estimated that an additional 350 – 400 or so induced jobs could then be lost because of the reduction in demand for goods and services within the tri-county Fort Bragg region. While this loss of employment (direct, indirect, and induced) may make it difficult for some of those affected to find new employment, the research team feels confident that the local market could absorb those dislocated into similar jobs. Even though current jobs within the region are concentrated in a few sectors, they t end to match the skills and experience levels offered by those inside and outside the gate impacted by the total cumulative force reductions. At any given time, according to NCWorks data, there are approximately 4000 jobs available in the Fayetteville MSA (again, that includes Cumberland and Hoke counties). In a typical month, there are an average 7000 job openings advertised online. Both of these counts are relatively unduplicated. Cumberland County usually represents the 5th highest number of job openings so advertised across NC. Concurrently, there are abou14,000 ‘potential candidates’ in any given month in the local MSA. The actual number of unemployed in the MSA is usually at a 1:1 ratio to advertised online job openings. The major jobs at any given time are: Truck drivers; RNs; Network & computer systems administrators; Computer user support specialists; Retail salespersons and supervisors; Maintenance & repair workers; and Customer service representatives. Again, these occupations match up nicely with those of scenario impacted military/civilian labor. The employers usually with the highest number of job openings advertised online in this MSA are: General Dynamics; CACI; Department of Veterans Affairs; Booz Allen Hamilt on; Cape Fear Valley Health System; Army Medical Command; FSU; SENTEL Corporation; Cumberland County and Schools; US Army; Burger King Corporation; Harris Teeter Inc.; ManTech International Corporation; Leidos Holdings, Inc; Compass Group; and PSA Healthcare. The nature of these employers matches quite closely the occupational skills of the military and civilian workers plus spouses potentially impacted. Furthermore, the most common minimum education requirement is HS diploma or equivalent; the 2nd most common requirement is a BS degree. Meanwhile, the most common education level of potential candidates (in the NCWorks system) is HS diploma or equivalent, with the 2 nd most common level being 1-3 Years of college or a technical or vocational school. The most 021417wsa HC BOC Page 188 Impact Greater Fayetteville 175 common minimum experience requirements are entry level, with 1-2 years coming in 2nd. However, the most common of potential candidates was over 10 years; and 5-10 years at 2nd place. The average weekly wage for the MSA is approximately $750, or $18.75 an hour or $38,750 annualized full-time. This is 8th in the state. While relatively low, it matches the minimum desired wage of available candidates – with the most common being the $20-$35K range and 2nd being the $35-$50K range. A review of major county-level occupations by population also indicates a pretty strong match between the skill sets/job types of military-connected residents/workers and those predominately existing in the region: Population by Occupation Hoke Harnett Cumberland Sales, office, administrative support 23% 24% 25% Production, transportation, material moving 16% 15% 12.50% Construction, extraction, maintenance-repair 11% 13% 8% Management, business, finance 9% 12% 11% Education, library 7% 7% 8% Food preparation, serving 6.50% 5% 7% (Source: bestplaces.net) Occupations by Projected Growth The table below shows the occupations with the highest estimated annual openings in North Carolina (no data available for Fayetteville MSA, North Carolina) for the 2012 - 2022 time period. Rank Occupation 2012 Estimated Employment 2022 Projected Employment 2012- 2022 Annual Percent Change Estimated Annual Openings 1 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 124,908 145,961 1.6 6,874 2 Retail Salespersons 136,699 150,827 1.0 6,089 3 Cashiers 103,871 109,641 0.5 5,068 4 Waiters and Waitresses 73,544 79,356 0.8 4,119 5 Registered Nurses 87,850 105,730 1.9 3,491 6 Customer Service Representatives 78,961 91,424 1.5 3,395 7 Home Health Aides 47,102 66,588 3.5 2,845 021417wsa HC BOC Page 189 Impact Greater Fayetteville 176 8 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 71,447 76,855 0.7 2,754 9 Nursing Assistants 54,375 68,841 2.4 2,481 10 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 71,612 83,863 1.6 2,087 11 Office Clerks, General 64,717 70,248 0.8 1,913 12 Childcare Workers 37,200 45,224 2.0 1,896 13 General and Operations Managers 54,359 62,457 1.4 1,827 14 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 59,350 63,900 0.7 1,746 15 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 39,472 46,745 1.7 1,663 16 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 54,698 60,502 1.0 1,609 17 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 34,450 39,976 1.5 1,525 18 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 51,663 58,606 1.3 1,520 19 Accountants and Auditors 32,799 38,281 1.6 1,519 20 Receptionists and Information Clerks 29,673 36,199 2.0 1,452 21 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 47,722 47,714 0.0 1,442 22 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 37,007 43,138 1.5 1,427 23 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 37,984 44,413 1.6 1,396 24 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 45,039 49,972 1.0 1,371 25 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 35,622 40,171 1.2 1,353 | | Source: Labor & Economic Analysis Division, Economic Analysis Here is similar occupational growth projection data for the larger Sandhills Region (but not including Harnett): 021417wsa HC BOC Page 190 Impact Greater Fayetteville 177 Occupation 2012 Employment 2022 Employment Net Change Median Annual Wage Registered Nurses 6445 7870 1425 57024 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 4582 5347 765 38738 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 2208 2922 714 39018 Interpreters and Translators 745 1251 506 187367 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 2691 3190 499 43179 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 3215 3655 440 30434 General and Operations Managers 2920 3349 429 91916 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 3870 4144 274 30073 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 1327 1589 262 49573 Child, Family, and School Social Workers 1091 1326 235 41932 Accountants and Auditors 1252 1473 221 55884 Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 1322 1543 221 38942 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 2192 2401 209 39163 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 845 1049 204 35580 Note: The equivalent lists for the Cumberland County, Lumber River (which includes Hoke County) and Triangle South Workforce Development Area (which includes Harnett County) reflect similar top growth projection occupations. Also please note that any cuts may also have the potential to adversely impact minority -owned and/or -staffed businesses if significant numbers of separated soldiers and Army military- civilians move to areas outside of this tri-county region. Proactive interventions could utilize the existing resources of the local FSU-housed SBTDC and VBOC, regional community college SBCs, FTCC’s MBC, Fayetteville Women’s Business Center/CEED, Chambers of Commerce, and others seeking to assist local small businesses. Military personnel spend their money in the local economy, usually within a 5-10 mile radius ‘spend area’, supporting additional jobs, income, taxes, and sales. Currently about two-thirds or 36K live on post, with the other third or 18K residing ‘outside the gates’. Recently, the elimination or relocation of the 440th Airlift Wing consisting of approxima tely 350 active airmen and Air Force civilian employees and up to 1,000 drilling reservists stationed at Pope 021417wsa HC BOC Page 191 Impact Greater Fayetteville 178 Army Airfield on Fort Bragg occurred. It is thought, however, that this had minor, if any, adverse impacts in regional workforce or economic activity. In addition, other ongoing and new infrastructure improvements and construction and development activity also benefits the regional economy through additional jobs primarily in the construction field. This activity should help to mitigate at least so me of any adverse impacts of the troop and other personnel reductions. [One remaining ‘unknown’ problem is that it is not clear to what extent the dozens of companies and contractors are doing business with Fort Bragg, if any will even be impacted. If so, researchers would need to know exactly what portion of their revenue is reliant on military and defense spending, and what skills and knowledge are required by the companies’ workforces to be able to meet the military’s or Fort Bragg’s needs.] Future Growth Occupations In addition to simply noting and matching current and projected occupational demand with existing labor skill sets, it is also valuable to point out opportunities to provide community college type training and university education for selected high potential skill types, particularly for exiting soldiers and military–civilians who are probably knowledgeable in these areas, and particularly since this has been pointed out in other studies as an opportunity worth building upon to attract companies to locate operations here. Many military-connected folks also possess valuable security clearances. In order to develop a more highly skilled and educated workforce for the future – more in alignment with sectors and careers inherent in further diversifying the economy more towards STEM disciplines - it is also important to put more emphasis on the potential to develop workforce talent along dimensions that would attract new and/or additional companies to locate here in targeted high paying industries that could leverage defense or other special assets (such as aerospace, virtual reality simulation, remotely piloted aircraft) in addition to emphasis on preparing excess workforce for where the most jobs are currently (such as retail). As noted elsewhere, there are already programs for incumbent worker training and education meant to help current employees upgrade their skills. There are also customized training programs offered by NCWorks thru community colleges. As their website states: “The NCWorks Customized Training Program provides education, training and support services for new, expanding and existing business and industry in North Carolina through our network of 58 community colleges, serving all 100 counties of the state. Our goal is to foster and support three key aspects of your company's well-being:  Job Growth  Technology Investment  Productivity Enhancement 021417wsa HC BOC Page 192 Impact Greater Fayetteville 179 All solutions are the result of collaboration with the management team and customizing the training to meet specific objectives adding to business success.” A review of the potential sectors targeted and discussed elsewhere in this report includes the following: Target Industry Sectors  Logistics and Warehousing  Defense and Security  Advanced Manufacturing  Business Services  Health Care/Life Science On balance, these five sectors require a higher order of knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) leading to equally higher incomes. So at least some of the focus for the tri -county region needs to be placed on preparing new workers for future jobs in the identified sectors for possible potential growth. While there are some jobs in each sector that may only require a high school diploma and/or short to moderate on-the-job training (OJT) or perhaps a certificate, many others will require either longer term OJT and/or college degrees including 2+ 2 and advanced programs. Several jobs involve technical aspects that are tied into the STEM disciplines (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math); many of these are also tied back to estab lished career pathways in our k-20 education systems.  One area that almost all local employers express a need for is for more customer service, interpersonal and sales skills and training for same. In fact, the Greater Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce is planning to offer a series of classes in such topics for existing employers and their employees. Regional educational institutions would be wise to offer even more education and training in these critical topics as well. The Chamber is also going to be sponsoring a series of business and education roundtables on a quarterly basis to help identify and meet other skills gaps. Much of this ‘trainsition’ work, of course, also depends on the ability of the tri-county region to attract via economic development efforts more business & industry operating in the five targeted growth sectors. This would need to be done in concert with local workforce development and public and post-secondary education leaders to ensure that their talent development and supply programs and pipelines are aligned and adequate to meet future demand. The number one indicator that corporate site locators use in determining to build, move or expand operations is the quality and quantity of the local labor force and education/training system needed to produce such qualified workers. One prime local example of an institution of higher learning developing and offering such in - demand and higher level programs is Campbell University in Harnett County. Over the last few years, partly in response to regional labor market needs and projections, they have rolled out 021417wsa HC BOC Page 193 Impact Greater Fayetteville 180 new undergraduate programs in nursing, engineering, homeland and cyber -security and new graduate and professional programs including physical therapy and osteopathic medicine. Each of these fits one of the target growth sectors identified in this report. And at FSU, BRAC efforts led to the opening of the Center for Defense and Homeland Security housing training academies in cybersecurity, emergency management, and national se curity. One other local example for community colleges is FTCC’s launch of its cutting -edge Collision Repair and Refinishing Technology curriculum that prepares individuals to apply technical knowledge and skills to repair, reconstruct and finish hi-tech automobile bodies, fenders, and external features. They also have a relatively new simulation and game development curriculum. Finally, the local public school systems – notably Cumberland’s – have opened four early colleges with two located at FSU. The third at FTCC is called Polytechnic High School and focuses on vocational education mainly in STEM disciplines. In Hoke County, “SandHoke” Early College High School is a partnership between the Hoke County School System and Sandhills Community College. Harnett County may want to explore doing similar. In Harnett County, there are now two apprenticeship programs tied into the public high schools: Computer-Integrated Machining Technology and Welding Technology. These were created by Harnett County Schools, the North Carolina Department of Commerce, Central Carolina Community College, and several local companies. And as ssuccess in the local, regional, national or even global economy may require a two-or four-year degree, a certificate or diploma. The Career & College Promise (CCP) allows qualified high-school-age students in North Carolina to have the opportunity to pursue these options, tuition free, while they are in high school. This allows them to get a jumpstart on their workplace and college preparation. CCP provides three pathways to help advance eligible students’ post-high school success: College Transfer – College transfer pathways provide tuition-free course credits toward the Associate in Arts or Associate in Science that will transfer seamlessly to any public or participating private college or university. Technical Careers – Earn tuition-free course credits at an NC Community College toward a job credential, certificate or diploma in a technical career. Innovative High Schools – Begin earning tuition-free college credits as a high-school student by attending an approved Cooperative Innovative High School.  To make even more progress in these nascent efforts, a career information education initiative would need to be planned, coordinated and implemented focused on the five future growth sectors presented here plus their major occupations. This would need to include at a minimum the k-12, secondary, and post-secondary education and training institutions as well as regional Workforce Development Board operations and partners including industry. This effort could also help position the region for external grant and other funding opportunities involving career clusters and sector training. This effort would require more robust career, educational and personal advising and counseling in the K-12 system so that middle and high school students could better understand the range of careers available with various levels of required education, training and skills. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 194 Impact Greater Fayetteville 181  The tri-county regional education and workforce and economic development systems would need to be even more aligned with current and future talent needs of targeted industry sectors. Core competencies and industry-specific skills needed for the projected high/er growth and wage occupations in the region would need to be developed. This sector or cluster strategy is an approach that has been adopted all across the country and not just in other mill or ‘mil’ towns seeking diversification.  The regional umbrella leadership group would also need to have an on-going process to continually analyze and update any workforce gap projections for each targeted growth industry in order to keep the talent re-skilled and up-skilled.  More programs in the educational systems that would provide WorkKeys Assessment and Career Readiness Certificates (CRC) will be needed as well.  Examples of some specific courses that that currently are offered through regional k -12 Career Technical Education programs and are directly relevant to the target growth industries include: Drafting, Electronics, Biotechnology, Computer Integrated Manufacturing, Fundamentals of Technology, Manufacturing, and Transportation Systems. More would need to be developed along with an increased number of apprenticeships and life-long-learning programs. One such initiative already in the works is a multi-county Health Career Pathway that includes Cumberland and Hoke (and Moore, but not Harnett) that is currently waiting for state approval in order to implement. This certified pathway will allow the partnership to develop programs in healthcare careers plus provide additional funds for career awareness programs, work -based learning opportunities, apprenticeships, and job placement with large health care employers. The program was developed over a six-month period through meetings with industry, education, community partners, and government agencies to meet the continually growing demand for medical professionals. There is a continuum of jobs starting with direct patient care and nursing assistance through to medical assistance and health records IT, and from 2 -year to advanced degrees, and each will be addressed. More of this type of aligned and integrated planning and model implementation will be needed in this region to meet talent needs for other clusters for up to a decade out. Potential Entrepreneurial and Economic Development Opportunities in the Three County Region Many regions and/or towns/counties that are heavily dependent on military installations, and seek diversification, attempt to increase and/or develop economic diversification including entrepreneurial initiatives. As referenced elsewhere, the region possesses several assets to help with additional concentrated assistance, support and coaching for entrepreneurs, small business owners, and ‘start ups’ including via incubators and accelerators. The Workforce 021417wsa HC BOC Page 195 Impact Greater Fayetteville 182 Development Boards might also be able to provide such assistance to separated soldiers and other displaced workers. The table below shows the industries and sectors in Cumberland, Harnett and Hoke Counties with excess demand that is not currently met by suppliers. This is one way of identifying potential economic development and entrepreneurial opportunities in a given area. For example, in Cumberland County, an approximately $119 million demand for specialty food is currently being met by suppliers outside the county. Similarly, in Harnett County, there is $121.5 million excess demand for general merchandise items and Hoke County $53 million excess demand for beverages and food are currently being met by suppliers from outside the county. Admittedly, the excess demand in some industries cannot be met because the county may currently lack infrastructure and complementary businesses. Sectors/industry with Excess Demand Cumberland County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 4452 Specialty Food Stores $118,871,795 445 Food and Beverages stores $106,600,864 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $71,245,517 447 Gasoline Stations $29,067,044 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $19,179,338 4453 Beer wine and Liquor Stores $9,518,640 4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment Supply Stores $8,912,064 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $7,305,590 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $4,096,069 7223 Special Food Services $2,665,089 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $941,440 4533 Used Merchandise stores $295,220 Harnett County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 452 General Merchandise Stores $121,589,741 4521 Department Stores excluding leased Department $92,357,060 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $72,369,671 4411 Automobile Dealers $51,683,618 448 Clothing and Clothing Specialty Stores $47,849,557 4452 Specialty Food Stores $42,729,539 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $40,612,988 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $36,245,968 4481 Clothing stores $33,244,535 4529 Other Merchandise Stores $29,232,681 7221 Full service restaurants $25,110,802 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,994,285 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $23,432,353 021417wsa HC BOC Page 196 Impact Greater Fayetteville 183 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $23,247,950 454 Non-stores Retailers $22,690,780 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $20,164,871 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $19,939,839 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $18,360,460 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $18,320,132 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $15,994,448 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $13,806,470 4421 Furniture stores $9,372,208 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $8,926,985 7222 Limited service eating places $6,235,111 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $6,062,522 7224 Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages $6,015,941 4482 Shoe Stores $5,678,037 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $5,112,221 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,434,262 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $3,414,533 4542 Vending Machines Operators $915,787 Hoke County- Excess Demand Sectors/industry NAICS Industry Excess Demand 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers $105,410,540 4411 Automobile Dealers $91,224,024 445 Food and beverages stores $53,004,844 4451 Grocery Stores $34,439,999 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $29,064,135 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $22,359,196 443 Electronic and Appliances Stores $21,481,614 443 Electronic and Appliances stores $21,481,614 444 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip and Supplies $20,624,928 4441 Bldg Materials and Supply Dealers $19,022,043 4441 Bldg Materials and supply dealers $19,022,043 4452 Specialty Food Stores $17,638,583 446 Health and Personal care stores $15,804,471 4482 Shoe Stores $15,350,457 4481 Clothing stores $15,350,457 7222 Limited service eating places $13,905,689 4529 Other General Merchandise Stores $13,139,150 7221 Full service restaurants $12,238,585 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $10,839,340 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $10,496,599 447 Gasoline Stations $10,496,599 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings $9,473,764 4412 Other Motor Vehicles Dealers $8,838,187 021417wsa HC BOC Page 197 Impact Greater Fayetteville 184 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical instrument Stores $7,513,235 4539 Other Miscellaneous Stores Retailers $6,535,758 4413 Auto Parts, Accessories and Tire Services $5,348,329 4421 Furniture stores $5,231,084 4483 Jewelry, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores $5,006,311 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4422 Home Furnishings Stores $4,242,680 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses $4,018,395 4512 Books, Periodical & Music Stores $3,014,563 4532 Office supplies, Stationary and Gifts Stores $2,537,562 454 Non-stores Retailers $2,537,562 7224 Drinking Places Alcohol beverages $2,307,500 4543 Direct Selling Establishments $1,976,712 4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies $1,602,985 4533 Used merchandise stores $1,380,510 4453 Beer, Wine and liquor stores $926,262 7223 Special Food Services $612,361 4531 Florists $385,510 Regional residents seeking to start a new or grow a small business in these or other markets could utilize the existing resources of the local FSU-housed SBTDC and VBOC, regional community college SBCs, Fayetteville Women’s Business Center/CEED, Chambers of Commerce, and others seeking to assist entrepreneurs. From Findings to Transition So far, this chapter, and indeed study, has attempted to understand the extent of the direct and indirect military and defense workforce footprint in the tri-county Bragg region. This understanding can help with a “seamless” transition or “soft-landing” for dislocated soldiers, and other impacted defense contract and civilian employees. Furthermore, it has sought to understand future opportunities for key job and industry growth in both the public and private sectors in order to meet economic and workforce needs. Part of both of th ese is a pro-active focus on retaining and strengthening the defense and other sector businesses and workers that make the tri-county region their home via workforce adjustment and retraining efforts. Other sections of this report have focused on the related need to reduce the exposure of regional businesses to a reliance on military and defense spending and develop a diversification strategy and support system for those companies and communities. The main goal of this chapter and plan, indeed of the overall study, is to assist the region (to include impacted firms and neighboring jurisdictions) transition successfully while retaining its regional skills base, competitiveness, and sector expertise. This would be accomplished by minimizing the economic impact of the three scenario reductions by supporting the re- employment of as many as 3,000 soldiers, 1000 mil-civ employees and 400 civilian workers 021417wsa HC BOC Page 198 Impact Greater Fayetteville 185 directly or indirectly dislocated. Therefore, the end of this plan below identifies a labor or talent transition process and system that connects employees to growth industries/occupations and identifies technological and ‘high-touch’ tools to support their transition process. Regional Career Intervention and Transition Resources In order to accomplish these types of talent ‘trainsitions’, a collaborative effort across several entities on and off post across the three counties will need to involve the following: [Note: Given the fact that the great majority of potential dislocated workers will be military - connected, emphasis is placed on services targeted to service members and veterans. All providers besides DoD-TAP also provide similar or the exact same services and programs to the civilian population. Most of this information is taken directly from their respective websites.] The Department of Defense Transition Assistance Program (DoD-TAP) provides information, access to important documents, and training to ensure Service members separating from Active Duty are prepared for their next step in life - whether pursuing additional education, finding a job in the public or private sector, or starting their own business. This redesigned TAP is the result of an interagency collaboration to offer separating Service members and their Spouses better, more easily accessible resources and information to make their transitions more successful. Benefit Highlights: The DOD -TAP for Service Members and Veterans web site is designed to provide separating Service members and Veterans access to their Verification of Militar y Experience and Training (VMET) documents, view completed Transition Modules and Tracks, view Pre-separation counseling checklist DD 2648 for active duty or DD 2648 -1 for reserves and your Individual Transition Plan (ITP). Click here to login to the DOD TAP for Service members and Veterans login page. From this site, Service members and their spouses can:  Learn about the new Transition GPS (Goals, Plans, Success) curriculum  Determine how and where to start preparing for their transition to civilian life  Discover a host of online resources regarding VA benefits, financial planning assistance, and assessing and documenting their skills for transition to civilian life They can now complete several complementary SFL-TAP courses online on the Joint Knowledge Online (JKO) website. The following eight transition courses are now available: Course Name JKO Course Identifier Dress For Success USA-ACAP009 Family Concerns USA-ACAP005 Interview Techniques USA-ACAP010 021417wsa HC BOC Page 199 Impact Greater Fayetteville 186 ITP Review USA-ACAP004 Salary Negotiations USA-ACAP011 Skills Development USA-ACAP008 Special Issues USA-ACAP006 Value of a Mentor USA-ACAP007 The SFL-TAP Process The SFL-TAP process must be initiated early. Allowing soldiers to start early provides you and the Soldier the flexibility needed to prevent a conflict between mission requirements and SFL- TAP services. It also ensures compliance with timeliness standards and promotes the program’s effectiveness. As they prepare for transition, soldiers need an average of 40 hours, spread over a 12-24 month period of time, to take advantage of SFL-TAP services. For more information on timeliness requirements and the need to start early, read Getting Started Early. Commanders will assist soldiers in getting an early start through a formal notification process. Soldiers must register for services and schedule their first service. For their first service, soldiers will receive pre-separation counseling, complete DD Form 2648 or 2648-1, the Pre-separation Counseling Checklist, learn more about SFL-TAP and schedule additional services. Soldiers document the counseling and additional VOW/CRS requirements on DD Form 2958, Individu al Transition Plan Counseling Checklist. This form documents the soldiers achievement of VOW/CRS and determines if the soldier and their unit have met the Army's timeliness standard. Many soldiers will sign up to receive employment assistance training, e ither by attending a Department of Labor Employment Workshop (DOLEW) or viewing DOLEW training online. The DOLEW provides the skills and knowledge soldiers need to attain their post active duty transition goals. Once they’ve completed the DOLEW, soldiers will need additional assistance and services to select a career objective, write a resume, find a job opportunity, apply for a job and prepare for an interview. These additional services can be scheduled and completed over a number of weeks and months and around mission requirements using a variety of resources. In addition to this regular menu of additional services, many SFL-TAP Centers schedule special events. Throughout the SFL-TAP Process, the TSM and SFL-TAP Center staff remain accessible to commanders and other Army Leaders. You can always verify a Soldier’s appointments or confirm that the Soldier reported for a scheduled appointment by contacting your SFL -TAP center. The entire SFL-TAP Team is committed to helping you support your transition while also ensuring that your critical mission continues without interruption. Getting Started Early Each commander, sergeant major and first sergeant is responsible for ensuring that soldiers initiate SFL-TAP services early on in the transition process. Recognizing that the effectiveness of services is directly linked to the time soldiers spend preparing for their transition from active duty, soldiers should begin the transition process up to two years (for retirees) or no later than one year (for non-retiring transitioners) prior to transition from active duty. From a leader’s point of view, early is better than late. Soldiers who begin their SFL-TAP services early in their 021417wsa HC BOC Page 200 Impact Greater Fayetteville 187 transition are better able to complete SFL-TAP activities around unit duty requirements. More importantly, if the Army is to realize the benefits of reduced unemployment compensation costs, enhanced active duty retention, enhanced enlistment in the National Guard and Reserve and enhanced image of the Army as a great place to start, soldiers must have time to receive substantive transition and employment assistance services. SFL -TAP Centers maintain statistics on unit compliance with Army, DOD policies and congressional mandates regarding timely involvement in transition and job assistance services. Your chain of command will typically have access to this data and your unit’s compliance rate will be a matter of record. Registering for Services Notified soldiers can register for their first SFL-TAP service online, in person or pre-register by phone. Once registered, they can schedule services and print an appointment slip. Soldiers can choose to receive services in the SFL-TAP Center or online. Face to face service at the SFL-TAP center is always the preferred method. Either way, they will be advised of what they need to do next. You are always welcome to contact the SFL-TAP Center to confirm a soldier’s first appointment or to confirm that the soldier actually reported to the SFL -TAP Center as scheduled or completed pre-separation counseling online. First Visit The first step in the SFL-TAP process is a two-hour pre-separation counseling session, most often presented as an automated presentation delivered by the SFL-TAP On-Line website or at the SFL-TAP Center. The contents of the counseling are defined by DOD and Army policy and provide soldiers valuable information on transition benefits and programs designed to assist their smooth transition from active duty. Soldiers complete a DD Form 2648 or 2648 -1 to acknowledge receipt of this counseling and indicate their desire for additional information and services. The date of this briefing is recorded in the automated SFL -TAP system and, along with the Soldiers ETS date, is the basis for all statistical reports on unit compliance with Army, DOD policies and congressional mandates. At the conclusion of the briefing, Soldiers will be provided information on other service providers and given the opportunity to schedule follow-on SFL- TAP services. When Soldiers do schedule a follow-on activity, they can print an appointment slip. As always, unit commanders and leaders can always verify an appointment by calling the SFL-TAP Center. Workshops The next step in the SFL-TAP process is attendance at a Department of Labor Employment Workshop (DOLEW). DOLEW is conducted by DOL facilitators. The workshop is three days in length and provides attendees the knowledge, information and skills they need to achieve their post-transition occupational goals. The Veterans Administration provides two briefings to ensure soldiers are made aware of all the benefits offered to veterans of the Armed Services, to include those disabled as a result of their service. Additional Workshops assist Soldiers compare their current salary, benefits and opportunities with those they m ight be able to attain in the Private Sector, as well as identify gaps in their military skills that may assist with civilian employment. A schedule of your installation’s workshops can be found on SFL-TAP On-Line. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 201 Impact Greater Fayetteville 188 Additional Services No one ever found a job just by attending a class. The real work of preparing for transition success begins where the workshop ends. Soldiers, even those going to school after separation, will need to begin the process of setting a career objective. Objective setting requir es a careful assessment of occupations, the job market and the Soldier’s own skills, aptitudes, experience, education and training. Once the soldier has set an objective, the tough task of achieving that objective begins. Typically, job seekers must create a resume, network, identify job opportunities, apply for jobs, prepare for interviews and prepare to negotiate salary and benefits. These are difficult tasks and few Soldiers have ever performed them prior to their entry on active duty. SFL-TAP staff members are qualified professionals who have the training and resources to help Soldiers perform these critical tasks. Counselors can be contacted through SFL-TAP On-Line or counseling sessions can be scheduled for individual attention. Soldiers can also go to SFL-TAP On-Line or schedule time in the SFL-TAP Center to use the automated job assistance training program, JATA, as a means of supplementing workshop instruction as well as career exploration tools, resume writers and Internet job search resources. Generally, soldiers can print an appointment slip and commanders and leaders can always contact the SFL-TAP Center to verify an appointment or attendance at an appointment. Special Events The SFL-TAP Center may schedule special events to enrich SFL-TAP services. Job fairs may be held to help transitioners meet and interview with hiring employers. Local employers may be invited into the SFL-TAP Center to help soldiers understand the local job market and better appreciate what employers are looking for in successful job applicants. The SFL-TAP Center also might hold short classes for those who want to learn more about a specific job search topic such as resume writing or interviewing. A schedule of these special events can be found on SFL- TAP On-Line. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 202 Impact Greater Fayetteville 189 Preseparation Timeline 24 - 12 Months Prior to Transition (Retirees Only)  Complete Pre-separation Counseling  Complete Initial Counseling  Begin Individual Transition Plan (ITP)  Register on eBenefits 18 - 12 Months Prior to Transition (Non-Retirees)  Complete Preseparation Counseling  Complete Initial Counseling  Begin Individual Transition Plan (ITP)  Register on eBenefits 15 - 12 Months Prior to Transition  Complete MOS Crosswalk/Gap Analysis  Complete Standardized Individual Assessment  Identify requirements for Certification/ Licensure 12 - 9 Months Prior to Transition  Complete DOL Employment Workshop and obtain DOL Gold Card 9 - 6 Months Prior to Transition  Attend VA Benefits Briefings I and II 6 - 5 Months Prior to Transition  Complete Resume of Choice 5 - 4 Months Prior to Transition  Complete 12-Month Post Separation Budget No Later Than 3 Months Prior to Transition  Complete DD Form 2958 (Capstone) *Transition Career Tracks (Accessing Higher Education, Career Technical Training and Entrepr eneurship) will be completed throughout the transition period in accordance with each Soldiers ITP. *Continuum of Military Service Counseling will be conducted in accordance with appropriate Army timeline standards. NCWorks Career Centers: Formerly known as JobLink or ESC Job Service Centers, these are operated by regional Workforce Development Boards and staff under the auspices of the N.C. Department of Commerce/Division of Workforce Solutions provides job seeker services for veterans, transitioning service members, and eligible spouses. They are located in all three counties. Veterans (and other civilians) can visit their NCWorks Career Center and take advantage of the following no-cost services:  Career assessments  Labor market information  Access to training opportunities, job fairs, and workshops  Job interview preparation  Resume and cover letter assistance 021417wsa HC BOC Page 203 Impact Greater Fayetteville 190  Assistance with NCWorks Online  Access to computers and free Internet service  Help applying for federal employment and training programs in which veterans receive priority of service Some veterans face significant barriers that make it difficult for them to find suitable employment, especially vets who are transitioning into civilian lif e. Most offices have specialized staff—all of whom are veterans—who work closely with employers to create more opportunities for veterans and provide the following services to veterans themselves:  Help developing an employability plan and goals  Coaching in individual and group settings  Referrals to supportive services, including vocational rehabilitation, transportation, elder care, food and nutrition services, and non-profit organizations that address homelessness The following criteria are considered significant barriers to employment:  Disabilities  Homelessness  Unemployed for at least 27 weeks  Criminal background (released within the last 12 months)  No high school diploma or GED  Low income  Between 18-24 years old NCWorks Online The state’s official job-search website, NCWorks Online gives veterans access to job postings for 24 hours before they are made available to the general public. The system provides information on training opportunities, local services, and other resources available to veterans. Employers can also search exclusively for candidates who are veterans. NCWorks Apprenticeships The apprenticeship program is recognized as one of the leading methods for acquiring skills and knowledge necessary to become a craftsman. Business and industry, the North Carolina Department of Commerce and community colleges work together to provide apprenticeship programs consisting of on-the-job training and related instruction. Colleges provide the related instruction for both registered and non-registered apprentices. Related instruction may be provided through classroom instruction, correspondence or individualized instructional programs. Veterans participating in NCWorks Apprenticeships can continue to draw benefits from the GI Bill, even though they are employed as part of an apprenticeship. Learn more about apprenticeships. It is understood that due to military responsibilities, soldiers often require an additional level of scheduling flexibility in order to earn their college degree. Online flex courses provide a self- 021417wsa HC BOC Page 204 Impact Greater Fayetteville 191 paced format, giving them the ability to choose their start date and work at their desired pace until completion The NCWorks Customized Training Program provides education, training and support services for new, expanding and existing business and industry in North Carolina through the network of community colleges, serving all 100 counties of the state. The goal is to foster and support three key aspects of your company's well-being:  Job Growth  Technology Investment  Productivity Enhancement The Customized Training Program provides training assistance for full-time production and direct customer services positions for new and existing companies in North Carolina. The program is dedicated to the enhancement of workforce skills essential to successful employment. Eligible companies must demonstrate two of the following criteria: 1) The business is making an appreciable capital investment; 2) The business is deploying new technology; 3) The business is creating jobs, expanding an existing workforce, or enhancing the productivity and profitability of the operations within the State; and 4) The skills of the workforce will be enhanced by the assistance. This initiative could be tapped as well as another workforce and economic development resource for the region. Work-Based Learning Work-Based Learning (WBL) courses are designed to provide students with exposure to supervised work experience in industry, business, government, health or service work situations. They are joint ventures between the educational institution and employers that help prepare students for responsible positions in the world of work. Students may earn college credit for Work-Based Learning when it directly relates to their program of study. The North Carolina Department of Commerce administers a Registered Apprenticeship program that helps workers learn new specialized skills needed in today’s workforce. The apprenticeship program combines on-the-job training with invaluable classroom instruction. A student enrolled in a community college technical education program, may utilize WBL for the on -the-job training requirement of the apprenticeship. Regional Community Colleges In general, the community colleges offer degree, plus corporate and continuing education and certificate, programs that also match the predicted regional training and talent needs. These include the following areas: Degree:  Agricultural and Natural Resources Technologies  Biological and Chemical Technologies  Business Technologies  Commercial and Artistic Production Technologies 021417wsa HC BOC Page 205 Impact Greater Fayetteville 192  Construction Technologies  Engineering Technologies  Health Sciences  Industrial Technologies  Public Service Technologies  Transport Systems Technologies Certificates:  Emergency Services – CPR, EMT-Basic, EMT-Basic (State/National Registry), EMT- Paramedic, Emergency Medical Technician  Extension Education – Automotive, Commercial Sewing, Foreign Language, Motorcycle Repair, Sign Language, Small Gas Engine, Teacher Renewal, Wedding/Event Planning & More!  Healthcare Programs – Cardiovascular Monitor Technician, CNA I & II, Phlebotomy, RMA I & II  Fire Training – Fire training for current professionals  Law Enforcement – LET training for current professionals  Online Programs – Business, Computer Training, Healthcare, Medical Office, Personal Development Non-credit courses also include:  Business/Management  Barbering & Cosmetic Arts  Human Resources Development (HRD)  Medical Industry  Building/Construction Trades  Industrial Skills Community colleges also provide the following: Human Resources Development (HRD) The Human Resources Development (HRD) program provides workforce development training to individuals in transition. The goal of the HRD program is three pronged in its purpose: to provide program outreach and student recruitment activities to unemployed and underemployed individuals, to enhance and develop employability skills, and to assist individuals in accessing meaningful training and/or employment opportunities. There are six HRD courses listed on the Continuing Education Master Course List - Employability Skills (HRD 3001), HRD Employability Lab (HRD 3002), Career Planning and Assessment (HRD 3003), Career Readiness/Pathways (HRD 3004), Technology Awareness (HRD 3005), Employability Motivation and Retention (HRD 3006). HRD courses are open to all and are fee waived to unemployed individuals, dislocated workers, and workers earning at or below 200% of the federal poverty standards. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 206 Impact Greater Fayetteville 193 Being student-centered, the HRD program focuses its activities toward providing instructional training in employability skills specifically designed to meet the needs of individuals facing job transition, skill and self- assessment activities designed to identify the individual’s interests, work values, aptitudes, and/or job readiness as related to career, employment, and/or educational goals, and career development activities to include career and/or academic planning and advisement, job search strategies for the 21st century, post-training placement assistance and follow-up counseling, and linkages to community support services. FTCC has a convenient location at the Bragg Training and Education Center (BTEC) - as well as venues in Spring Lake and Fayetteville proper - for the thousands of soldiers and families stationed at Fort Bragg and Pope Army Airfield. They are committed to offering top quality college courses in a variety of formats to provide the flexibility they need. With over 200 programs of study to choose from and Military Services Specialists on staff, they can help soldiers pursue their educational goals Fayetteville Technical Community College's participation as a Service Members Opportunity College streamlines credit transfers between schools. Although some North Carolina community colleges, including Fayetteville Technical Community College and Central Carolina Community Colleges, have programs that provide significant course credits for military training, each institution in the University of North Carolina system determines which credits they will accept as transfer credits, or whether course credit will be granted for military training. Military Medic to Paramedic EMS Bridge Programs is one such initiative that may help separated soldiers to fairly quickly transition to a related civilian occupation in high demand. FTCC is also proud to participate in the My Career Advancement Account (MyCAA) Scholarship. Through the MyCAA Scholarship program, an eligible military spouse can receive up to $4,000 of tuition assistance over two years. The scholarship is designed to assist military spouses in acquiring the education and qualifications needed to enter a high-demand, high-growth portable career field or occupation. Transition Tech is another special training program for transitioning military service members that provides industry-focused certificates and credentials, resume assistance, and mock interview opportunities designed to prepare them to enter the civilian workforce. After completing industry courses, each Transition Tech student will complete 5 days of Human Resource Development to prepare for resumes and interviews with industry employers. Program Cost These courses are FREE to veterans and active military in transition through a partnership with Workforce Development (NC Works). Training Length Most programs are 10-12 weeks in length, but depending on your MOS and skill level, you may be able to complete the training in less time. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 207 Impact Greater Fayetteville 194 FTCC has proudly provided affordable and convenient educational pathways for our nation’s military for over four decades. They are committed to supporting our military students in their pursuit of education through: – A Tuition Grant to cover any tuition costs over $250/credit hour (TA Limit) – Waived Administrative Fees for all military students using tuition assistance – Low or No Cost Textbooks to limit any out-of-pocket costs – Credit for Military Training based on your military training and experience will reduce the number of courses needed to complete your degree The North Carolina Military Business Center (NCMBC) is a business development entity of the North Carolina Community College System, headquartered at Fayetteville Technical Community College (FTCC). The mission of the NCMBC is to leverage military and other federal business opportunities to expand the economy, grow jobs and improve quality of life in North Carolina. The NCMBC’s primary goal is to increase federal revenues for businesses in North Carolina. The Department of Defense has an annual impact of $48 billion and is the second largest sector of North Carolina’s economy (12% GDP). With six major military bases, 116 National Guard and 40 Army Reserve facilities and the third highest number of uniformed military personnel in the country, the State of North Carolina created the NCMBC to leverage opportunities with these installations and with DoD commands worldwide. The NCMBC connects North Carolina firms to current government contracting opportunities in two ways – with a team of business development specialists across the state who also provide technical services, and electronically with www.MatchForce.org. Business Development. The NCMBC’s business development team includes experienced business development, industry and procurement specialists operating from 12 Community Colleges across the state – from Franklin to Elizabeth City. These specialists identify the most lucrative federal contract opportunities (prime and subcontracts), notify and pre -position North Carolina firms for specific opportunities, and assist firms to understand government solicitations, prepare winning proposals and to successfully execute federal contracts. MatchForce. To connect North Carolina businesses with all federal opportunities , including local opportunities at bases in the state, the NCMBC administers the State’s official, FREE web portal for federal contracting – www.MatchForce.org. North Carolina businesses register on the portal, receive automatic matches to federal prime opportunities and to subcontracting opportunities posted by other registered businesses, and post job opportunities for FREE that match job skills posted by registered individuals. Firms identifying contract opportunities through MatchForce can then contact the NCMBC business development team for one -on-one assistance. The Small Business Center Network, comprised of 58 Small Business Centers throughout North Carolina on community college campuses, supports the development of new businesses and the growth of existing businesses by being a community-based provider of training, counseling, and resource information. The programs and services of the Small Business Center Network promote entrepreneurship and the development of small businesses across North Carolina. The 021417wsa HC BOC Page 208 Impact Greater Fayetteville 195 centers are local, community-based resources that help existing and potential small business owners plan and operate successfully. The specialized staff assist with business plan development and review, information on financial support, one-on-one business counseling, and referrals to other agencies and sources of business assistance. Additionally, the centers provide free and low cost seminars and courses and serve as a resource library of relevant business publications, videos/audios and software. Confidential counseling services and access to resource libraries are free of charge. Some seminars and workshops require a minimal registration fee. Services provided by the Small Business Center Network can be customized to suit specific business needs. At Central Carolina Community College, they understand the unique needs of service members and their spouses. This is why they work to make it possible for them to finish their college education, regardless of location. Whether you want to earn points toward promotion or to transfer credits toward a bachelor's degree, their staff will work to build a plan that's right for each student. Veterans Upward Bound is designed to motivate and assist veterans in the development of academic and other requisite skills necessary for acceptance and success in a program of postsecondary education. The program provides assessment and enhancement of basic skills through counseling, mentoring, tutoring and academic instruction in the core subject areas. The primary goal of the program is to increase the rate at which participants enroll in and complete postsecondary education programs. Sandhills Community College The Sandhills Hoke Center offers curriculum and continuing education courses as well as serving as the home for Sandhoke Early College High School. The University Studies Associate in Arts, Criminal Justice, Nursing Assistant, and Basic Law Enforcement Training are offered in total at the Hoke Center. Continuing Education classes in Career Training, College and Career Readiness and Career Development are taught at the Sandhills Hoke Center. Education programs are approved by the North Carolina State Approving Agency for the enrollment of persons eligible for education assistance benefits from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Those entitled to VA benefits are eligible veterans, participants in the Montgomery G.I. Bill contributory program, active duty military in voluntary education programs, drilling National Guard, drilling Reservists, and spouses and children of disabled or deceased veterans. The Office of Veterans Affairs in Student Services provides information and assistance to students applying for VA education benefits. Apply on the VA website www.gibill.va.gov. Please see the VA Certifying Official regarding any specific questions regarding these programs. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 209 Impact Greater Fayetteville 196 To be eligible for VA educational benefits, one must be enrolled in an approved curriculum, taking only those courses required for graduation in the chosen curriculum. Students must maintain Satisfactory Academic Progress under the same standards as Financial Aid Recipients. The VA will not pay for enrollment in the following:  course audits  repeated courses previously passed  credit by examination  courses not required in chosen curriculum  continuing education classes  dropped or withdrawn classes Regional Universities Fayetteville State University (FSU) is a public comprehensive regional university, offering degrees at the baccalaureate, master's, and doctoral levels across 54 programs of study. The University's Schools of Business and Economics, Nursing, Education, and Criminal Justice are widely recognized as being top-tier Schools in the state of North Carolina by U.S. News and World Report and other educational review sources. The University has also been voted as best in the state of North Carolina for Veterans, and its online MBA program has been voted as among the most affordable in the nation among highly accredited institutions. For ove r thirty years, the faculty and staff of Fayetteville State University have embraced military service members and their families. Today, they continue to strengthen the relationship while striving to meet the educational needs of this growing and valuable sect of the regional community. In commitment to military families, Fayetteville State University is constantly rising to the challenge of tailoring its academic programs to assist them in achieving their personal and career goals. Thus, they offer various degree programs at bachelor's and master's levels as well as fully online programs in criminal justice, psychology, sociology, fire science, and business administration-general, making the pursuit of higher education convenient and feasible.. The Veterans Business Outreach Center (VBOC) at the School of Business and Economics (SBE) offers continued entrepreneurial services and training to veterans in US Small Business Administration Region IV (serving all of NC plus some other southeastern states). The VBOC mission is to maximize the availability, applicability, and usability of small business programs for veterans, service-disabled veterans, reserve component members, and their dependents or survivors. VBOC, with its parent Office of Veterans Business Development, is SBA’s liaison with the veterans’ business community providing policy analysis, reporting, and training programs for veteran entrepreneurs. VBOC has a number of programs and services to assist aspiring and existing veteran entrepreneurs such as training, counseling, mentorship, and capital access through SBA loan programs to veteran-owned and service-disabled veteran-owned small businesses. Current veteran entrepreneurship training opportunities at FSU Include: 021417wsa HC BOC Page 210 Impact Greater Fayetteville 197 •Collaborative, hands-on, interactive learning opportunities for veterans, disabled veterans, spouses, National Guard and reserve component members •Continued training at area military bases through Operation Boots to Business: From Service to Startup •VBOC ‘s Entrepreneur Boot Camp for Veterans with Disabilities •Ongoing one-on-one business counseling and training programs, courses and seminars •Building a community of interactive veteran resource partners locally and across SBA Region IV •Workshops to include QuickBooks, How to Write a Business Plan, Credit Counseling, and SBA Loan Programs: the Veterans Advantage Small Business & Technology Development Center at FSU Organized as an inter-institutional program of the University of North Carolina, operated in partnership with the SBA, the Small Business and Technology Development Center (SBTDC) is the primary organization through which the State of North Carolina provides counseling and technical assistance to the business community. The SBTDC's mission is to support the growth and development of North Carolina's economy by encouraging entrepreneurship, assisting in the creation and expansion of small businesses, and facilitating technology development and transfer. The Cape Fear SBTDC's primary focus is in-depth, one-on-one, confidential counseling. Assistance is provided free-of-charge to the small business owners or aspiring entrepreneurs. As the only full-service counseling resource statewide, the SBTDC helps with the myriad of tasks facing a business owner including assessing the feasibility of a business idea, preparing a business plan, finding sources of capital loan package preparation, developing marketing strategies, and improving operations and human resource management. GoArmyEd is the virtual gateway to request Tuition Assistance (TA) online, anytime for classroom, distance learning, and eArmyU online college courses. Information on other Army Continuing Education System (ACES) programs and services is also available on GoArmyE d.com. GoArmyEd is a dynamic online portal that automates many of the paper-based processes you historically conducted with your Army Education Counselor. GoArmyEd is your one-stop location for managing your college education using TA benefits. GoArmyEd is used by:  Soldiers to pursue their postsecondary educational goals.  Army Education Counselors to provide educational guidance.  Colleges to deliver degree and course offerings and to report soldier progress. Teaching Licensure Opportunities for Transitioning Soldiers Fayetteville State University, in cooperation with the Fort Bragg Education Center, offers a program of Teacher Licensure Opportunities for Transitioning Soldiers (TLOTS) through the School of Education. This program allows transitioning soldiers who have a maximum of two years of active duty remaining and hold at least a B.A. or B.S. degree to enroll in a teacher licensure program. For program requirements, contact the School of Education. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 211 Impact Greater Fayetteville 198 Fayetteville State University first established its presence on Fort Bragg in 1973. Since then, Fayetteville State University/Fort Bragg Center has continued to provide excellent education for all Fort Bragg Military personnel, their dependents, and citizens of the surrounding communities. The “Focus” of Fayetteville State University/Fort Bragg Center is to “Target & Achieve” the specific needs and requirements unique to our military. Students may take a minimum of three semester hours or a maximum of nine semester hours credit each term, depending upon personal obligations. Also all courses are taught after standard business hours to afford the flexibility and opportunity for higher learning. Finally, the Center for Defense & Homeland Security (CDHS) at FSU offers training academy programs in cybersecurity, emergency management, and national security for military - connected students, civilians, and professionals in the field. Methodist University The University offers bachelor's degrees in over 80 fields of study (majors and concentrations) including communications, justice studies, business administration, education, and social work. New majors, minors, and concentrations recently added include entrepreneu rship, interdisciplinary studies of clandestine labs, church leadership, and radio communications. The University offers four master's degree programs: the Master of Medical Science in physician assistant studies, the Master of Business Administration in organizational management and leadership or health care administration, the Master of Justice Administration, and the Master of Education in literacy or special education. In the Fall of 2015, the University enrolled its first doctoral level students in the Doctor of Physical Therapy program. MU also hosts a Center for Entrepreneurship plus offers a related major. Their office on post services their active-duty military students. At the office, military students can receive financial aid consultation, register for classes, and receive academic advising. On our Fort Bragg Campus, students can take MU at Night classes toward their degree, and even earn entire degrees in Business Administration or Environmental & Occupational Management without setting foot on the main campus. G.I. Jobs has named Methodist University a Military Friendly School for five straight years, and they are proud to offer educational services for active duty military, guardsmen, reservists, veterans, spouses, and dependents. Veteran Services MU provides information on aid for veterans, spouses, and dependents. From the G. I. Bill to the Yellow Ribbon Program, their website can answer questions about veteran benefits 021417wsa HC BOC Page 212 Impact Greater Fayetteville 199 Campbell University is committed to meeting the needs of active duty and veteran military students to help them build their future in the civilian and military worlds. What does Campbell offer?  Over 150 tracks and concentrations including relatively new offerings in nursing, engineering, homeland and cyber-security  5 graduate and professional programs including physical therapy and osteopathic medicine  Convenient day and evening programs  Online courses  One of the best ROTC programs in the nation  Liberal transfer policy In addition, Campbell University is a member of Service Members Opportunity Colleges (SOC) providing soldiers with enhanced transfer opportunities and the chance to turn their military training into college credit. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 213 021417wsa HC BOC Page 214 021417wsa HC BOC Page 215 021417wsa HC BOC Page 216 021417wsa HC BOC Page 217 021417wsa HC BOC Page 218 021417wsa HC BOC Page 219 021417wsa HC BOC Page 220 021417wsa HC BOC Page 221 021417wsa HC BOC Page 222 021417wsa HC BOC Page 223 021417wsa HC BOC Page 224 021417wsa HC BOC Page 225 021417wsa HC BOC Page 226 021417wsa HC BOC Page 227 021417wsa HC BOC Page 228 Harnett County PARKS AND RECREATION MASTER PLAN FEBRUARY, 2017 021417wsa HC BOC Page 229 MASTER PLAN PROCESS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 230 VISION + GOALS VISION: “Develop a broad and comprehensive system of parks, facilities, greenways/blueways and recreational opportunities for all citizens and visitors regardless of age, ability or ethnicity in an economically feasible manner.” GOALS: Develop the Cape Fear River as a blueway/Riverwalk to stimulate economic vitality. Connect communities, parks, attractions, destinations and civil facilities through a greenway trail system. Enhance recreation opportunities in underserved areas of Harnett County. Accommodate a balance of passive and active recreational opportunities that enhance quality of place and target users of all ages and ability levels. Grow the types and frequency of recreational programs offered to Harnett County citizens. Manage existing facilities efficiently and propose new facilities with few barriers to entry (financial, environmental, social). 021417wsa HC BOC Page 231 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS •PARKS FOUND IN HARNETT COUNTY •Municipally Managed Parks:177 Acres •Harnett County Managed Parks:1,203 Acres* •Campbell University:61 Acres •State Managed Parks:4,694 Acres Total Park Acreage: 6,135 Acres EXISTING PARK ACREAGE 23.13 19.15 49.03 40.84 50.18 Municipal Park Acreage Park Acreage 1203 Harnett County Harnett County Park Acreage Park Acreage 4694 Raven Rock Raven Rock State Park Park Acreage CAPE FEAR RIVER TRAIL PARK ANDSERSON CREEK PARK BARBECUE CREEK PARK •*Provided by Harnett County Parks and Recreation website. Where acreages were not specified, acreage for parcel was used. Per the Harnett County Parks and Recreation administrative manual, the county manages 1,043 acres of park land. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 232 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS PARK CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM PARK TYPE PARK SIZE SERVICE AREA LOS STANDARD Ac/1,000 PEOPLE Neighborhood Park 3-10 Acres .5 Mile 2 Acres Community Park 30-50 Acres 3 Miles 5 Acres District Park 50-200 Acres 5 Miles 12.5 Acres Regional Park Varies 50 Miles NA 021417wsa HC BOC Page 233 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS HARNETT COUNTY + MUNICPAL EXISTING PARKS MAP SERVICE RADII 021417wsa HC BOC Page 234 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS HARNETT COUNTY EXISTING PARKS MAP SERVICE RADII 021417wsa HC BOC Page 235 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS •LEADSERHIP & STEERING COMMITTEE MEETINGS •Competitive Advantages Summary •Availability of natural, rural land in close proximity to urban communities. •Presence of captive audience found within schools, Fort Bragg and Campbell University. •High level of support found within municipal leaders. •Presence of existing green infrastructure such as Raven Rock State Park, the Cape Fear River and the Upper and Lower Little River. •Willingness to link various communities together through trail networks and an integrated park network. •Diversity of bio-regions such as the Piedmont and Sandhill ecosystems. •Park & Recreation Challenges Summary •Lack of an integrated parks and recreation plan clearly communicating the path forward. •Challenge to provide a balanced park system of a large land area. •Lack of a comprehensive approach to accessing river and water bodies. •No integrated trail network or master plan for development, selection, funding and property acquisition strategy. •Few truly diversified, equal access opportunities to parks and facilities. •Distinct lack of recreational opportunities in southern Harnett County. •No centralized, prominent built structure serving as a community building. •Challenge to communicate and reach citizens throughout Harnett County. PUBLIC INPUT MEETINGS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 236 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS •COMMUNITY MEETINGS •Community Wants & Needs •Public river access •Integrated trail network •Park system with facilities more equally distributed throughout the County •More facilities in underserved areas to minimize drive times •Youth & adult athletic programs •Community center •Public pool and/or splash pad •County wide events •Youth based facilities such as skate parks, playgrounds or athletic fields •Camping opportunities •More information from the county pertaining to events and offerings •Concerned about trespassing on private property for greenway and blueway trails. •Community Valued Experiences •Youth sport leagues •Kayaking and canoeing down the river •Place for friends and family to come together •Playing and fishing with friends in the river •Boy scouts and girls scouts PUBLIC INPUT MEETINGS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 237 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS •The priority investment ranking is derived from (1) the importance residents placed on facilities and (2) how many residents have unmet needs for the facility. •Top priority rankings shown are based off an aggregate score of 125 points or greater as developed by ETC Institute. STATISTICALLY VALID SURVEY RESULTS 200 190 161 158 156 145 136 134 131 Indoor Aquatic Facility Weights & Fitness Machines Multi-use Gym Space Indoor Track Dog Park Water Access Greenway Trail System Playground Splash Pad Facility Investment -Top Priorities Priority Investment Ranking 021417wsa HC BOC Page 238 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS STATISTICALLY VALID SURVEY RESULTS 177 163 147 133 Camps (Summer/School Break)Walking for Exercise Painting/Drawing Classes After School & Friday Programs Youth Programming Investment -Top Priorities Priority Investment Rating •The priority investment ranking is derived from (1) the importance residents placed on facilities and (2) how many residents have unmet needs for the facility. •Top priority rankings shown are based off an aggregate score of 125 points or greater, as developed by ETC Institute. •Medium priority rankings shown are 50-124 points, as developed by ETC Institute. 122 122 118 108 106 105 101 83 76 74 70 69 Shooting Sports/ Archery Basketball Martial Arts/ Tai Chi Trips/ Tours Soccer Environmental Education Training/ Certification/ Education Baseball Climbing Running Volleyball Football Youth Programming Investment -Medium Priorities Priority Investment Rating 021417wsa HC BOC Page 239 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS STATISTICALLY VALID SURVEY RESULTS 163 147 133 Walking for Exercise Trip/ Tours Training/ Certifications/ Education Adult Programming Investment -Top Priorities Priority Investment Rating •The priority investment ranking is derived from (1) the importance residents placed on facilities and (2) how many residents have unmet needs for the facility. •Top priority rankings shown are based off an aggregate score of 125 points or greater, as developed by ETC Institute. •Medium priority rankings shown are 50-124 points, as developed by ETC Institute. 118 116 99 98 87 83 79 76 62 61 56 Painting/ Drawing Classes Shooting Sports/ Archery Senior Recreational Programs Camps (Summer/School Break) Martial Arts/ Tai Chi Running Environmental Education After School & Friday Programs Basketball Climbing Volleyball Adult Programming Investment -Medium Priorities Priority Investment Rating 021417wsa HC BOC Page 240 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS S.C.O.R.P. RANKINGS •Rankings are based out of 99 counties within North Carolina. •A ranking of (1) indicates the best rankings and (99) providing the least/worst amount of facilities per person. 54 79 90 88 51 18 Athletic Fields Athletic Courts Picnic Shelters Playgrounds Trail Miles Local Park AcresAccess to Facilities RankingsHarnett County SCORP Rankings Statewide Comprehensive Outoor Recreation Program Rankings 021417wsa HC BOC Page 241 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS BENCHMARKS AGAINST COMPARABLE COUNTIES 9.72 3.58 2.85 11.26 0 5.24 12.5 Total Acres per 1,000 ResidentsPark AcresTotal Park Acres per 1,000 Residents Harnett County Craven County Henderson County Orange County Robeson County Rowan County National Standard 0.05 0.12 0.03 0.12 0 0.07 0.2 Trail Miles per 1,000 ResidentsTrail MilesTotal Trail Miles per 1,000 Residents Harnett County Craven County Henderson County Orange County Robeson County Rowan County National Standard Conclusion: •Harnett County provides below average trail miles per resident. Recommendation: •Increase trail miles per residents to the national standard of .2 miles/1,000 residents. •Target Trail Miles –36 Miles Conclusion: •Harnett County provides above average acres of park land per resident. Recommendation: •Continue to provide adequate acreage per resident as population growth occurs, ideally 12.5 ac/1,000 residents. •Current Target Acreage Required –542 Ac. •Target Acreage Required –1,167 Ac.021417wsa HC BOC Page 242 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS BENCHMARKS AGAINST COMPARABLE COUNTIES $3.50 $8.00 $27.20 $39.20 $7.60 $16.90 $33.98 Total Operating Expense per Resident (In Dollars)Operating ExpenseCurrent Operating Expense per Resident Harnett County Craven County Henderson County Orange County Robeson County Rowan County National Standard Conclusion: •Harnett County provides minimal operating expense per acre of parkland. Recommendation: •Increase operating expenses to a minimum of $1,000 per acre. •Current Target Minimum Operating Expense -$1,203,000 •Target Minimum Operating Expense -$2,370,000 Conclusion: •Harnett County operates on a lower budget than benchmark agencies. Recommendation: •Increase operating expense to $13 per resident. •Current Target Minimum Operating Expense -$1,800,000 •Target Minimum Operating Expense -$2,493,000 $360 $2,237 $9,543 $3,482 $0 $3,233$3,546Operating ExpenseTotal Operating Expense per Acre (In Dollars) Current Operating Expense per Acre Harnett County Craven County Henderson County Orange County Robeson County Rowan County National Standard 021417wsa HC BOC Page 243 PART 1: INVENTORY + ANALYSIS BENCHMARKS AGAINST COMPARABLE COUNTIES 0.42 0 1.28 2.78 0.82 5.17 0 Full Time Employees per 10,000 ResidentsFull Time EmployeesFTEs per 10,000 Residents Harnett County Craven County Henderson County Orange County Robeson County Rowan County National Standard Conclusion: •Harnett County is below average in providing full time employees per 10,000 residents. •Harnett County currently employees 5 full-time employees. Recommendation: •Increase number of full time staff (or full time equivalents) per 10,000 residents to .75. •Current FTEs –9.75 (Hire an additional 4 FTE staff) –Hire (2) full-time employees with two years. •2030 FTEs –13.5 (Hire an additional 8.5 FTE staff)021417wsa HC BOC Page 244 PART 2: NEEDS + DEMANDS •NEEDS + DEMANDS PARKS + GREENWAYS + BLUEWAYS Parks: Additional 1,167 Acres Required by 2030 Greenways: Additional 36 Miles Required by 2030 Blueways: 1 access point every 4-6 miles –8 Proposed 021417wsa HC BOC Page 245 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 246 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS I.POLICY + MANAGEMENT II.PROGRAMS III.FACILITIES I.PARKS II.GREENWAYS III.BLUEWAYS OVERVIEW 021417wsa HC BOC Page 247 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS POLICY + MANAGEMENT •KEY POLICY + MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 1.Continue to support local municipalities parks and recreation programs. 2.Play a greater role in developing a system of recreation facilities and programs for unincorporated areas within the county. 3.Develop a Parks and Recreation Advisory Board. 4.Partner with the Harnett County School System. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 248 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS PROGRAMS •KEY PROGRAM RECOMMENDATIONS 1.Promote indoor recreation facility based programs. 2.Promote outdoor adventure and outdoor educations programs using the river and regional parks. 3.Provide outdoor sport facilities. 4.Provide special events which celebrate the history of various and unique areas of the county. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 249 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS FACILITIES •KEY FACILITY RECOMMENDATIONS 1.Acquire an additional 1,167 acres of park land by 2030. •Unify interest in parks and recreation across the county by offering “Core Facilities” and “Anchor Facilities” at each different park. 2.Develop 36 miles of additional greenway trails by 2030. •Link the county through a robust an interconnected system of trails focusing on linking schools, parks and unique environmental regions. 3.Develop 8 blueway access points by 2030. 021417wsa HC BOC Page 250 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS FACILITIES •CORE FACILITIES –Low barriers to entry and serve the greater number of users. •Playgrounds •Multi-Use Walking Trails •Picnic Shelter •Seating Options •Shade Trees •Attractive Landscaping •Water Fountains •ANCHOR FACILITIES –Unique facilities that attract users county-wide and are inspired by specific needs, cultural, historic or environmental features or market-based attractions. •Indoor Aquatic/ Recreation Facility •Dog Park •Water Access •Splash Park •Shooting Range •Climbing Wall •Golf Course •Ropes Course •Sports Complex 021417wsa HC BOC Page 251 FACILITIES •RECOMMENDED ANCHOR FACILITIES 1.Indoor Aquatic Facility 1.Senior Swim 2.Youth Swim Classes 3.Free Swim 4.After School Care 2.Indoor Recreation Facility 1.Weights & Machines 2.Multi-Use Gym 3.Indoor Track 3.Dog Park 4.Water Access 1.Canoeing/ Kayaking 2.Swimming 3.Fishing 4.Camping 5.Splash Park PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 252 •PLANNED PARK EXPANSIONS AND POTENTIAL PROGRAMMING 1.Government Complex •Sports Complex –River Access/Canoe Launch –Multi-Use Trail Network –Picnic Shelter •Restroom Facilities –Seating Options –Open Play Fields -Day Use Area 2.Old Boone Trail High School Park •Playgrounds –Indoor Gymnasium -Media Center -After-School Care -Study/Research Area •Basketball Court -Picnic Shelter -Baseball/Softball Fields -Walking Trails -Batting Cages 3.Ponderosa Park •Multi-Use Field -Walking Trails FACILITIES PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 253 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS •PLANNED PARK EXPANSIONS AND POTENTIAL PROGRAMMING cont’d 4.Cape Fear River Trail Park •Water Access –Picnic Shelter –Fishing –Multi-Use Trail System –Playground 5.Barbecue Creek Park •Field Improvements -Lighting Upgrades 6.Neil’s Creek Park •Playground –Walking Trail System –Multi-Purpose Field -Parking Area FACILITIES 021417wsa HC BOC Page 254 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS PROPOSED PARKS MAP Proposed Quantity (4) District Parks (1) District Park Expansion (8) Community Parks (2) Neighborhood Parks 021417wsa HC BOC Page 255 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS 2030 PARKS MAP 021417wsa HC BOC Page 256 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS PROPOSED GREENWAY PLAN 021417wsa HC BOC Page 257 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS GREENWAY SCHEDULE PROPOSED GREENWAY IMPLEMENTATION MILES NOTES Extension of Dunn-Erwin Rails-To -Trail 1.6 Mi.Extension of the Dunn-Erwin rails-to-trail to Cape Fear River Trail Park Eastern Greenway Connector 7 Mi.Connecting East Coast Greenway and Mountains to See Trail in Benson Southern River Trail Extension 5 Mi.Connecting Cape Fear River Park along the Cape Fear River to the County line Middle River Trail Extension 10 Mi.Connecting Cape Fear River park and NC Wildlife River access point Western River Trail Extension 8 Mi.Connecting NC Wildlife river access point and Raven Rock State Park Upper River Trail Extension 5 Mi.Connecting Raven Rock State Park to western Harnett County Upper Little River Trail Extension 15 Mi.Connecting Cape Fear River Trail to American Legion River access point Western Greenway Trail Extension 18 Mi.Connecting Lillington to western Harnett County Central Greenway Trail Extension 20 Mi.Connecting Lillington to Old Boone Trail High School to Anderson Creek Park Western Greenway Trail Extension 32 Mi.Connecting southwestern Harnett County to proposed community and district parks 021417wsa HC BOC Page 258 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS PROPOSED BLUEWAY PLAN 021417wsa HC BOC Page 259 PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS •PARK AND FACILITY COSTS General Park Costs Year 1 -5: Approximate Cost: $17,700,000 Year 5 -10: Approximate Cost: $37,500,000 Year 10-15: Approximate Cost: $33,720,000 •FUNDING STRATEGIES •Grants (PARTF, LWCF, etc…) •Private/ Corporate Donations •Campaigns/ Fundraising •Fee-In-Lieu •Developer Contributions •Capital Budget Increases •Volunteerism •Program and Facility Fees •Partnership with School District •Park and Recreation Tax 021417wsa HC BOC Page 260 QUESTIONS / COMMENTS 021417wsa HC BOC Page 261